By Cliff Rold
Photo (c) Ed Mulholland/HBO
It may not be as anticipated as the action of one week ago, but for the second Saturday in a row the world is almost guaranteed a memorable encounter in the Welterweight division. Up this time around is a clash for the IBF belt Antonio Margarito vacated to pursue then WBA titlist Miguel Cotto between former World Welterweight champion Zab Judah (36-5, 25 KO) of Brooklyn and Ghana’s Joshua Clottey (34-2, 20 KO). It’s sort of a loser’s bracket bout in the grand scheme of things, Judah having lost to Cotto in 2007 and Clottey to Margarito in late 2006, but don’t let that fool you.
It’s still a quality match and one with its share of intrigues.
Judah, only 30, is at a pivotal crossroads. Once tabbed a can’t-miss superstar, Judah has had to settle for only a very good career marked for its downs as much as its ups. Three losses and a non contest in his last six bouts, including a jaw dropping upset loss of the Welter crown to Carlos Baldomir in January 2007, have put him in a must-win position. What it says about the IBF that Judah can even be rated #2 right now given his recent losses is for the fans to decide, but no politics can erase that he confronts Clottey with the best combination of speed and power the African import to the Bronx has ever seen.
Conversely, Clottey, older at 31 but with less miles, confronts his cross-town rival with the sort of durability and sturdiness that could weigh on the inconsistent Judah’s shaky concentration as the bout wears on. Will those pluses be enough if Judah lands his big left hand? If they are, will Judah have the discipline to settle in and box a full twelve? Clottey has had some good wins, notably against Richar Gutierrez and the late Diego Corrales, but he does not yet have a signature win at 147 lbs. He’s looking for that win now.
Let’s go to the report card.
Speed: Even with his past failures and disappointments, Judah has retained value and a solid fan base through a brash personality outside the ring and flashy speed inside of it. It’s a God given blessing that has allowed him to defeat most men even when fundamental mistakes in defense and footwork should have him in trouble. Clottey’s isn’t slow by any stretch, and he’s smart about when he punches, which will be a bonus in confronting Judah. He throws the right hand straight and at angles, and uses his jab wisely even if he sometimes paws with it. Neither man is an extremely accurate puncher, but Judah can sometimes be downright wild even if the punches are whizzing by at tremendous rates. If Clottey can stay calm under fire, he can defuse Judah’s advantage and make it his own. Pre-Fight Grades: Judah A; Clottey B
Power: Judah again wins out in terms of power. Clottey has gone the distance in seven of his last eight and for good reason. While he’s not shy about throwing punches, he rarely steps into them, choosing to maintain distance and taking some of the steam off of his best work. His shot selection can also be predictable, with the one-two upstairs being overly favored. His best punch may be the left hook to the body, and against the slightly smaller Judah it’s a shot that could create openings for the right hand. Judah has only knocked one of the men he’s faced at the top-tier but that didn’t make his blowout of Cory Spinks in their 2005 rematch any less impressive. He also severely shook Miguel Cotto, Kostya Tszyu and even Floyd Mayweather on single shots before losing. Judah’s problem throughout his career has been that he can unravel when the big shots land flush and don’t finish the show. If he can hurt Clottey, the knockout isn’t out of the question. History just says he’ll need to garner that result early if it’s to be a realistic possibility. Pre-Fight Grades: Judah A-; Clottey B
Defense: On his way up the ranks one weight division lower, Zab Judah was pegged as a ‘Pernell Whitaker with power’ because of the defensive prowess he exhibited. In the long run, the opponents he was facing early on turned out to be a poor gauge of how good his defense really was. He can still whip out some ‘wow’ moments when he decides to slip shots, but Judah also tends to get hit with big, blind shots. To use another sports cliché, he takes his eye off the ball at bad times. If Clottey’s defense looks familiar, it should. His high guard and punches sometimes fired off the back foot bear a similarity to another Ghanaian Welterweight, Ike Quartey. He doesn’t have the power of “Bazooka” but also has been less likely to get hit with shots he doesn’t see coming. This fight is interesting because both men will get hit. No Willie Pep’s here. Pre-Fight Grades: Clottey B+; Judah B+
Intangibles: Clottey is a fighter without special effects, but as Margarito showed last week sometimes that is special in its own right. He shows up fully prepared to go the distance and has excellent stamina. Does he have a little bit of give though? He built an early lead against Margarito before reportedly injuring one or both hands and saw his lead slip away in the second half. Margarito coming back on the cards late is pretty much par for the course, so hands probably don’t fully explain Clottey’s capitulation, particularly when considering reported injuries Margarito brought into that fight. Luck for Clottey that Judah won’t present a style as mauling or tireless as the rugged Mexican. The test here will be whether Judah can dent his chin. For Judah, as noted, the test will be if he doesn’t. He has the ability, and better overall game, to potshot Clottey and win a decision if he buckles down. With the pressure to win at its highest since the Spinks rematch, will we get the best or worst of Judah? It’s hard to ever put to much faith in the Brooklynite. Pre-Fight Grades: Clottey B; Judah B-
The Pick: Judah has been to the well and come away dry too many times, in too many fights, to feel safe picking him against a fighter like Clottey. Win or lose, Clottey is a grown-up in between the ropes. Judah is even inconsistent in that regard, as his pre-fight sucker punch to the hip of Carlos Baldomir in 2006 and classless fouling and engagement in an all corners brawl during the Floyd Mayweather fight most recently exhibited. He showed classier stuff against Miguel Cotto and I don’t expect to see any nonsense this weekend.
I’m not really sure who I expect to win either. Pushed to the wall, and with little conviction, Clottey’s steadiness is favored over Judah’s erratically applied toolbox in a tight, narrow decision if not a late stoppage.
The card kicks off, with the Cotto-Margarito replay also featured, on HBO’s Boxing After Dark at 9:30 PM EST/PST.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com