by Cliff Rold
The next wave is arriving.
When 39-year old Wladimir Klitschko turned professional almost two decades ago, Evander Holyfield, Mike Tyson, and Lennox Lewis were the top of the division. He didn’t develop fast enough to get in on that action but through hard work, longevity, and dominance became their heir. Inevitably, he is closing in on the time when he joins them as part of fistic lore.
Earlier this year, he got by a 30-year old Bryant Jennings and before that a then-33 year old Kubrat Pulev. Tyson Fury (27) is the first in a wave that could, if Klitschko keeps winning, encompass Anthony Joshua (26) and Joseph Parker (23). WBC beltholder Deontay Wilder just turned 30.
History says boxing is a young man’s game. If Klitschko sticks around long enough, one of the young guns will do him in. Could it happen this Saturday?
Let’s go the report card.
The Ledgers
Wladimir Klitschko
Age: 39
Title: IBF Heavyweight (2006-Present, 18 Defenses); IBO Heavyweight (2006-Present, 18 Defenses); WBO Heavyweight (2008-Present, 14 Defenses); Lineal/Ring World Heavyweight (2009-Present, 11 Defenses); WBA ‘Super’ Heavyweight (2011-Present, 8 Defenses); TBRB (2013-Present, 3 Defenses)
Previous Titles: WBO Heavyweight (2000-03, 5 Defenses)
Height: 6’6
Weight: 245 ¾ lbs.
Hails from: Kiev, Ukraine
Record: 64-3, 53 KO, 3 KOBY
Record in Major Title Fights: 25-2, 19 KO, 2 KOBY; 12-0, 8 KO (Lineal Title Only)
Current/Former World Champions Faced: 11 (Chris Byrd UD12, TKO7; Ray Mercer TKO6; Corrie Sanders TKO by 2; Lamon Brewster TKO by 5, RTD6; Samuel Peter UD12, KO10; Sultan Ibragimov UD12; Hasim Rahman TKO7; Ruslan Chagaev RTD9; David Haye UD12; Jean Marc Mormeck KO4; Alexander Povetkin UD12 – WBA Regular Titlist)
Vs.
Tyson Fury
Age: 27
Title/Previous Titles: None
Height: 6’9 (Allegedly)
Weight: 247 lbs.
Hails from: Manchester, Lancashire, United Kingdom
Record: 24-0, 18 KO
Rankings: #2 (BoxingScene, TBRB), #3 (ESPN, Ring, BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 1st Title Opportunity
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 1 (Steve Cunningham KO7)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Klitschko B+; Fury B
Pre-Fight: Power – Klitschko A+; Fury B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Klitschko B+; Fury B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Klitschko A; Fury B
First things first: one of the interesting elements of this fight on paper was Fury’s listed edge in height. At 6’9, he would be three inches taller than the champion. From what we saw at the weigh-in, there is a problem.
Unless Klitschko has gone through a growth spurt, or was wearing some serious lifts, or standing on something, none of which was the case, Fury is not three inches taller. They stood about eye to eye in several weigh-in photos. Boxing fans are used to fighters being listed as taller than they are. Three inches is hard to fake.
Instead, we’re looking at Klitschko against a fighter who is more like a Tony Thompson sized challenger. That could make a difference.
There aren’t a lot of areas where Klitschko isn’t the better man. He’s quicker, he’s more experienced, he appears to hit much harder, and he’s more refined. Fury has improved considerably over the years and does some things well. He jabs and keeps distance, moves his hands in combination, and has shown good stamina.
Defensively, there are still holes. Fury often holds his arms low, tempting opponents to let loose. Against men like Christian Hammer or Derek Chisora, he’s been okay. Against Klitschko, low hands could be a lethal vulnerability. Klitschko has a potent left hook and a concussive, true straight right hand. Behind an educated left jab, one that Klitschko can use as a pest or a phone pole, Fury could be blinded to bombs. He’s going to have to get those hands up or find a way to make them miss.
Both men have been on the floor in the past. Fury got up against former Cruiserweight titlist and finished him. Klitschko has won and lost in fights where he was down but hasn’t had to ask himself questions like that since his first fight with Sam Peter a decade ago. Both have shown good intangibles and Klitschko is so far from his darkest hours it’s hard to think too much on them at this point.
It may be that Fury either has to go for broke early or stink it out and grapple inside hoping to wear on the older man’s legs. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Fury can hope to box with Klitschko and risk exchanges for multiple rounds. The technical development doesn’t appear all the way there for that.
The Pick
It says here Fury probably will try to open up early and see if he can get Klitschko backing up and guessing. If he can hurt the champion early, and then body him up to limit return fire, he has a chance. Fury is a capable body puncher, and fluid for a man of size. He could do some good work at close quarters against Klitschko rather than just be held like a lot of Klitschko foes.
The problem will be that, when he goes to the body, he’s wide open up top. Klitschko would have room for big shots to the head at that point. Never much of a counter puncher, Klitschko would have to absorb and throw when Fury backs off.
Even without an edge in height, it’s still an interesting fight. Fury looks like he does a lot wrong but the things he does right (jab, throw in bunches, and dig to the ribs) are all things that could help. None of them answer the question of whether he can get those tools on track or take incoming fire.
Fury has a chance at the upset but until Klitschko loses, his weapons have to be favor. His boxing IQ is higher, his power is too much, for Fury. The pick is Klitschko by stoppage around the eighth.
A twenty-something might wrest the throne from Klitschko sometime soon. It probably won’t be Fury. As noted last week in the Alvarez-Cotto preview, if a fighter is really that good, he shouldn’t lose to men 12 years his senior. 27 should beat 39. No matter his improvement, Fury hasn’t shown yet that he’s really that good.
He has a chance to prove that thinking wrong Saturday.
Report Card and Staff Picks 2015: 84-23
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com