By Frank Lotierzo
As of this writing four days out from the fight, Wladimir Klitschko (44-3) is +135 to beat Samuel Peter (24-0) in their up coming heavyweight elimination bout Saturday night. For the record, Peter is -165 over Klitschko. The odds are indicative of how difficult this fight is to handicap. The reasons for this are what's unknown about Peter and what is known about Klitschko. Who does it make more sense favoring, the fighter with the experience who is the better technician, but is one punch away from coming undone mentally the first time he gets shook. Which is the profile that best describes Wladimir Klitschko. His opponent, Samuel Peter, has a chin that's never been tested at the world class level in a division where having a sturdy chin is paramount.
On top of that, he hasn't been extended in a tough fight making his stamina another area of concern. However, he's a born puncher with dynamite in both hands. Added to that, Samuel Peter believes he can't lose.
There's probably another faction of boxing observers scrutinizing the variables in trying to determine who they like. They're banking on Klitschko's trainer Emmanuel Steward being the difference. An angle I'd wouldn't place much credence on. Steward was in Wladimir's corner the last time he was stopped against Lamon Brewster. He was also the chief second for Thomas Hearns when he was stopped by Sugar Ray Leonard and Marvin Hagler, the two biggest fights of his career.
Did Steward suddenly discover the therapy to help Wladimir overcome what has already been predetermined by his genes? Along the way discovering the secret mental telepathy to will his fighter confidence he may lack if he gets hurt by a big punch during the fight? If Steward posses those capabilities, he acquired them after Lennox Lewis was stoppage by Hasim Rahman.
In reality, it's 5% the trainer and 95% the fighter, but the fighter needs that 5%. When the bell rings for the first round of Klitschko-Peter, Steward will ultimately have no say as to who wins the fight.
That said, if Wladimir Klitschko manages to defeat Samuel Peter, he'll once again be the force in the heavyweight division. Remember, to get past Peter, he'll have to survive getting tug with some big punches. It's not like Wladimir Klitschko can circle and jab, using the ring like Ali or Holmes to win a decision. There will come a point in the bout he'll have to fight Peter. When that happens, he's going to get nailed real good. If his chin withstands Peter's power enough allowing him to fight back, there's a good chance he'll win. It's simple, Peter has to score a knockout to win and Klitschko has to keep from being knocked out to win.
If Wladimir Klitschko can beat Samuel Peter, what will it mean for the heavyweight division - it means because of his size and offensive skills and power, he doesn't need a Chuvalo/Cobb like chin to win the title. Following up beating Peter with a couple of impressive looking knockouts, he'd perceived as the most formidable heavyweight in the world. And that includes his brother Vitali. Something I'm sure many think of as being sacrilege.
The reason I believe Wladimir Klitschko will become the main man in the heavyweight division, if he can beat Samuel Peter, remember, that's if he beats him, I'm not saying he will. For argument sake, assume Klitschko wins on September 24. Being that he stood up to Peter, what other heavyweights would he have to avoid? He'll never have to fight his brother. Even at that, if they weren't related, Wladimir is a better fighter than Vitali and from a style vantage point, has the size, speed and power to trouble him.
Lennox Lewis was never more out-of-shape for a title defense in his career than he was for his last one against Vitali Klitschko. He was also never hit with as many bigs shots flush by an opponent in a title fight. Outside of briefly being shook in the second round, he was never in trouble. So Vitali can't be a great puncher. Lennox Lewis was only down twice in his career, both times he went down, the fight never resumed. Klitschko had to be knocked down four times before he wasn't allowed to continue against Corrie Sanders. The point is, if Klitschko doesn't fold under Peter's bombs, his chin may not be as much of an Achilles to him as some, including myself thought.
Peter is the only heavyweight fighting today who can be thought of as being special, in terms of a puncher. So who's left in the division that Klitschko wouldn't be favored over? WBC champ Chris Byrd isn't big enough to out box Wladimir and doesn't have the power to stop him. John Ruiz is the WBA champ and deserves more praise than he gets having only lost against two terrific boxers in Roy Jones and James Toney since first winning the title in March of 2001. The problem is, Ruiz tends to carry the fight to his opponent and is always right in front of them to be hit. Which makes him a sitting duck for a puncher like Wladimir Klitschko. James Toney doesn't have the reach to out box him nor does he have the power to really hurt him let alone stop him. Not to mention the obvious fact that his body is breaking down more and more.
In November Vitali will eliminate Hasim Rahman. Even if Rahman pulled off the upset, I'd bet Wladimir would stop Rahman if they fought. Is it really all that hard to envision a confident Wladimir Klitschko riding a wave of confidence getting past Byrd, Ruiz, Toney and Rahman -- it's not for me. Who's left? Calvin Brock doesn't have the experience, Monte Barrett doesn't even think he'd win. Shannon Briggs would be dangerous for the first round. David Tua could probably stretch either Klitschko but will never stay in shape long enough to be in contention to fighter either of them. DaVarryl Williamson had a chance against Klitschko and couldn't get it done. So forget about him beating a confident one.
The only fighter that leaves is Lamon Brewster. Brewster is most likely the fighter Wladimir would be served best by avoiding. Yet, if they were to fight again, if Klitschko boxes him instead of going for the quick execution this time, I could see him winning.
Due to the heavyweight division being in the doldrums, Wladimir Klitschko will be the man to beat in it if he isn't forced to retire after fighting Samuel Peter. I'm not saying he'll beat Peter in this fight. If forced to pick right this minute, I'd take Peter. In a fight I don't have a strong feeling that favors one side over the other, I'll lean towards the fighter I believe to be the more confident whose carrying less mental baggage.
On September 25, 2005, if Wladimir Klitschko isn't holding a press conference announcing his retirement, he's the man to beat in the heavyweight division.