By Jake Donovan
This weekend was supposed to provide more answers than questions.
We were supposed to have one less Diaz in the lightweight sweepstakes. Check. Period.
That was about the only definitive matter that came out of last Saturday’s card at the Sears Centre in Hoffman Estates. Juan Diaz not only provided an answer, he added an exclamation point after his one-sided 9th round stoppage of Julio Diaz on HBO.
Instead, this weekend left everyone (or at least those who pay close enough attention to the sport) wondering what are the next series of moves at and around lightweight.
So unlike this lightweight mess which will apparently not sort itself out anytime soon, let’s cut to the chase and decipher beyond the final line result who won, who lost, and who remains somewhere in between:
WINNERS
Juan Diaz and Willie Savannah
What better place to start than with the most obvious. After spending the past six years toiling in relative obscurity (despite still boasting an undefeated record, as well as an alphabet title since 2004), Juan suddenly transformed in 2007 from suspect to arguably the best lightweight on the planet.
While Joel Casamayor manages to land in one controversial decision after another in his biggest fights, Juan keeps mowing ‘em down when the stakes are raised. Juan delivered back-to-back career best performances, both coming against his best opponents to date in Acelino Freitas and Julio Diaz. More so than collecting more alphabet trinkets along the way, Juan emphatically silenced his critics after years of being labeled a protected fighter.
What remains to be seen is who winds up getting next crack at the Baby Bull. But that’s where Diaz and longtime manager and father figure Willie Savannah are in a good place. There are plenty of opponents to choose from – David Diaz, Joel Casamayor, Nate Campbell, Michael Katsidis, or possibly Manny Pacquiao, should his claim of struggling to make 130 result in a move 5 lb. north. There are ups and downs to every scenario, but in the end, Juan’s looking at a payday anywhere from good to upwards of 5x his career high.
Before the next opponent is secured, Diaz and Savannah have the good fortunes of once again testing the free agent market. Thanks to the latter’s shrewd negotiating skills, Diaz-Diaz was the last fight Juan owes to Don King Promotions. While both King and Savannah have hinted at DKP getting first dibs on rights to promote his next fight, the asking price doesn’t go anywhere but up. The abysmal turnout for Dia de los Diaz is due more to the promotion and location than Juan’s drawing power. With HBO wanting to remain in the Juan Diaz business, and momentum increasing with each passing height, the only cries you hear are “Buy, buy buy” when the ticker flashes updates on Juan Diaz’ stock.
David Diaz, Nate Campbell and Michael Katsidis
All essentially come in a better position for the same reasons, so they get grouped together.
Chances are, all will enter their next fight with some belt on the line. Chances are even better that the next fight for each will also involve a career-high payday and/or step-aside money in the event that the networks push for something that will otherwise create a mess.
David Diaz appears to be sitting on the most options of the bunch. Early rumors had him facing Katsidis on HBO’s first BAD telecast of 2008. That fight might still happen. If not, then it’s either because David will instead face Juan, Casamayor or Pacquiao. David-Juan would be for all four alphabet belts. As will be the case for any other present top lightweight, a Pacquiao bout represents more money than any other. A Casamayor fight brings closure to a year old argument as to why the fight never happened in the first place.
Campbell and Katsidis are in a different situation, one that may find them going head-to-head the next time either one steps in the ring – for the right price, of course.
No matter how you mix and match any of the fight, there’s a 99.9% chance that any involving Katsidis winds up on HBO. The network has long been in love with the undefeated Aussie, to the point where they are grooming him as their next Arturo Gatti. The status would be strictly from an action standpoint, though perhaps pigmentation is also factored. Regardless, the man comes to fight every time out, having been involved in not one but two Fight of the Year candidates this year. Where he even trumps Gatti – he actually won both fights.
If Katsidis enforces his mandatory position, his next fight is either against Juan, or against fellow undefeated prospect-turned-contender Anthony Peterson should Juan elect to dump that particular title. Should he elect to play ball, Katsidis finds himself in a notable HBO (or PPV) bout and a hell of a lot richer – not to mention still in the hunt for lightweight supremacy.
Campbell’s road to riches isn’t quite paved with the same gold, though he too is not without options. He’s just the least mentioned among the three in this section. That can be interpreted one of two ways: he’s viewed as the toughest out, therefore the most risk for the least reward, or everyone else is looking to have him accept as little money as possible before agreeing to fight him.
Like Katsidis, Campbell is in a position where he can either enforce his mandatory ranking or align his pockets while accepting co-feature slots in waiting in line for his big moment. Unlike Katsidis (or Juan Diaz), Campbell will either have to play ball, or push for Juan to either fight him or give up a belt.
The latter results in either a rematch with Almazbek “Kid Diamond” Raiymkulov or, should Diamond have flash backs of the 2005 beatdown and pass on the fight, Zahir Raheem. The former winds up perhaps on a PPV undercard or maybe a Versus headliner. The latter? Buried on a Don King card in a fight nobody sees.
But no matter what he decides, Nate’s next fight will best benefit Nate – be it financially or for peace of mind (or possibly both). For Nate Campbell, that’s a better boxing place to than where’s he’s been in quite a long time.
Top Rank
So how does a promoter who had absolutely nothing to do with last weekend’s fight benefit? When he holds almost all of the remaining chips to all things relevant at lightweight. Quite a statement, since they enter the game with only two – David Diaz and Manny Pacquiao. But when both are, along with Juan Diaz, the common denominator in every relevant lightweight discussion, the man who pays their bills remains in a power position.
HBO
In 2007, HBO has either shown live or were involved in the PPV distribution for the following significant lightweight fights: Juan Diaz vs. Julio Diaz, Juan Diaz vs. Acelino Freitas, David Diaz vs. Erik Morales, and Michael Katsidis vs. Csar Amonset.
The following have aired on Showtime during that same span:
Nothing
Take a wild guess as to who hosts the next fights among any of the aforementioned players.
LOSERS
Julio Diaz and Sycuan Ringside Promotions
Though only 27 and still some fight left in him, chances are last weekend was the last time we will ever again see Julio Diaz in such a high-profile bout. It was forgiven when he suffered a hiccup against Juan Valenzuela all those years ago – he was still just a pup. It was forgiven (to an extent) when he didn’t put up much of an effort against Jose Luis Castillo in 2005. He took the fight on less than a month’s notice (though pulling out of a fight and vacating an alphabet title in accepting the assignment) and was arguably still growing as a fighter.
But quitting on his stool in a fight where he hadn’t even come close to getting dropped? Regardless of whether it was his corner’s decision or his own, being on the business end of such an anti-climactic ending is not the best way to keep the remain in the good graces of the boxing public – or the guys bankrolling your career.
When you’re a small, yet effective promotional outfit like Sycuan Ringside Promotions, one loss has a major impact. This time last year, Sycuan boasted claims to the linear junior featherweight crown (Israel Vazquez), the linear welterweight crown (Carlos Baldomir) and ties to beltholders Joan Guzman, Celestino Caballero and of course, Julio Diaz.
For the moment, Israel Vazquez’ rematch win over Rafael Marquez in the year’s leading Fight of the Year candidate is the best thing Sycuan can attach it’s name to. Baldomir dropped two straight and is pondering retirement. Guzman’s next fight, a dangerous showdown against Humberto Soto next month in Atlantic City, will be his first in 14 months. Caballero not only stunk out the joint in his Showtime debut this past August, but did so in the co-feature to Vazquez-Marquez II. It was enough to keep his next fight (Mauricio Pastrana, December 1) out of the public eye. Diaz’ letdown has already been discussed. Even their one-time blue-chip prospect Jorge Paez was severely exposed earlier this year.
Don King
Whether or not Juan Diaz re-ups with Don King Productions, the man often regarded as the greatest promoter of all time appears to have let the game pass him by. Nationally televised shows on three consecutive weekends all resulted in poor turnouts at the gate, and have led to more confusion than clarification in the divisions that were showcased.
This past weekend saw nine fights and a press conference stretched over the course of an eight-hour evening. The delay between the non-televised co-feature and Diaz-Diaz can be attributed to HBO, who has a long-running history of creating not-so-fan-friendly environments in the hours leading to their live telecast. The rest, is perhaps a group spreading itself to thin these days, words never before associated with Don King Productions.
If Don King remains in the lightweight picture, it will be due to Willie Savannah once again forcing his hand, raising the stakes and securing Juan future career-high paydays while remaining firm on not having Diaz commit to any deal the equivalent of signing his life away. Again, a statement rarely before found in the same discussion as any involving DKP.
IN BETWEENERS
Joel Casamayor
Despite alphabet suggestions to the contrary, Casamayor is still regarded by many as THE world lightweight champion. He earned that claim last year, when he won a split decision over Diego Corrales, who earned his keep with his Fight for the Ages against Jose Luis Castillo in May 2005.
Two problems: Corrales-Castillo I was the last “linear” title fight where both contestants made weight; and Casamayor hasn’t fought since beating Corrales in last year’s rubber match.
Casamayor resurfaces next month, in his debut with Golden Boy Promotions. His opponent: Jose Armando Santa Cruz, whose last relevant fight was a knockout loss to David Diaz, who has been chasing a Casamayor fight all year. Casamayor created the lightweight controversy by refusing to honor his mandatory, instead pursuing more lucrative bouts, only to price himself out of the one that would’ve mattered most – a showdown with Juan Diaz.
Casamayor still has the support of the media (though not this particular scribe) and of course Golden Boy, the latter representing the only reason HBO agreed to have him appear on next month’s Miguel Cotto-Shane Mosley PPV undercard. But he’ll need a strong – and more important, entertaining – performance to generate interests not only among the networks, but the other top lightweights, none of whom any longer speak his name when discussing future big fights within and around the division.
Golden Boy Promotions
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and these days, where there’s a free agent, there’s Golden Boy Promotions, with pen, paper and a sack full of cash in tow. For the moment, their lightweight relevance rests solely on the shoulders of Casamayor, save for a slight vested promotional interest they have in Manny Pacquiao.
That can change, should Diaz pass on extending terms with Don King and instead shop around for the highest bidder. Only one problem: Diaz and Golden Boy tried that last year. The two sides agreed to terms, prompting GBP to release the news via press release, only for Savannah to change his mind a week later, and instead sign with King.
This being boxing, money is usually the best remedy for a wounded heart. Whether or not there’s enough to make Golden Boy forgive and forget remains to be seen,
And that’s IF Diaz decides to declare himself an unrestricted free agent.
Chicago, IL
The first leg of all matters Diaz allowed the Windy City to emerge as the unofficial headquarters for today’s lightweight division. The David Diaz-Erik Morales promotion was well-received in Chicago, and even though the turnout at Allstate Arena in nearby Rosemont didn’t blow away Top Rank’s expectations, the 10,000 or so who showed up made the place feel like 100,000. There was very little downtime between bouts, and of course boasting a main event that ranks among the year’s best fights always help bring ‘em back for more.
This past weekend? Not so much.
Both the Allstate Arena and the United Center were booked with other events. With King and HBO handcuffed to the date and the idea of Chicago remaining involved, the circus moved to Hoffman Estates, which boasts both O’Hare and Midway Airports within an hours drive. But it’s still far enough to be in the middle of nowhere.
HBO attached its name to the Diaz-Morales PPV distribution, but was not on hand for the event itself. They were in the house for Diaz-Diaz, which would seemingly have a much more lasting effect than hearing rumors of a great turnout somewhere else.
After Diaz-Morales, the scenario most often discussed was David fighting the winner of Juan-Julio and preferably in Chicago. After Diaz-Diaz, a Juan-Manny Pacquiao bout was most often mentioned, a bout that, if it were to in fact happen, would most likely land on the West Coast.
No decisions will be made until the end of November, when all of the major players at 130 and 135 have completed their scheduled bouts. Hopefully by then, Chicago will re-emerge as a player in the lightweight sweepstakes. The city itself, which played host to the first ever Golden Gloves competition over 80 years ago, deserves better, and shouldn’t be blamed for its outskirts failing to generate boxing interest.