What if Gennady Golovkin Loses?

By Cliff Rold

Anyone still trying to figure out what the point of the Apple Watch is?

Sure, it’s a nice status symbol if one can afford it. That’s for those who see value in status symbols. If a list of possessions already includes an iPhone, iMac, and iPad, it’s arguably just a goofy 80s digital watch with a FitBit.

For more than $300.

Boxing fans can see the Apple Watch can be seen another way.

The Apple Watch is the latest vehicle for the expanding horizons of the man who might be boxing’s next big thing.

It’s been hard to miss the Apple Watch ads featuring WBA/IBO middleweight titlist Gennady Golovkin (33-0, 30 KO). Fans of a certain age remember what it was like when boxers regularly were called on to do endorsements for major brands. Roberto Duran and Sugar Ray Leonard had 7-Up. Marvelous Marvin Hagler had Right Guard. Mike Tyson had Kodak, Pepsi, and Nintendo.

Whether one is a fan of Golovkin or not, any boxing lover has to be happy to see someone from their favorite sport in such a favorable spot.

In recent years, we’ve seen Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao spearhead some major campaigns but only after they’d firmly established their place as pay-per-view stars. Golovkin is something different. He’s just getting there. This Saturday, he rides his latest wave of good promotion into his first notable pay-per-view headliner.

It’s also his first unification bout.

Madison Square Garden should be nearly, if not completely, sold out. Earlier this year, Golovkin packed them into the Los Angeles Forum. When a fighter can put asses in seats in the two biggest media hubs in the United States, they’re onto something.

When one of the largest companies in the world latches that same athlete to their wagon, they’re on a roll.

Golovkin is expected by most to add the IBF belt to his trophy case this weekend when he faces Canada’s David Lemieux (34-2, 31 KO). It would look nice next to his current strap and the Kazakh’s 2004 Olympic Silver Medal. A win also sets the table for a mandatory shot at the WBC middleweight champion.

That man will be either Miguel Cotto or Saul “Canelo” Alvarez after they face off on November 21st. Already the interim WBC titlist, Golovkin could add that belt without fighting either if they opt to avoid the mandatory.

Golovkin would surely prefer to fight for it. The winner of Cotto-Alvarez will hold more than just an alphabet belt.

They will be history’s champion, the man who beat the man going back to the complete unification of the division under the great Bernard Hopkins. They will also be the biggest money available in his division. Golovkin may be more likely to get his chance at the lineal crown if Alvarez is the victor. Alvarez has shown the willingness to take fights most assume he won’t. He fought Austin Trout when he could have faced Mayweather without him. He faced Cuba’s Erislandy Lara when that wasn’t a task others were seeking.

Mayweather claims to be retired. Without him on the scene, everyone is left to find the biggest money fights without him. At Middleweight, should both Alvarez and Golovkin win this fall, it’s hard to imagine a bigger fight in 2016. Both men carry heavy favor in the Latin community and sell tickets in major markets.

For Golovkin, it could be his Hopkins-Felix Trinidad opportunity.

Like Golovkin, Hopkins racked up a series of title defenses against a middleweight class that inspired few. Hopkins made his reign count with consistency, sticking around until the big fights came to him. Unlike Golovkin, Hopkins was perceived as beatable. The Trinidad team saw him as another obstacle to the real money showdown with Roy Jones Jr.

That’s where much of the allure of Golovkin resides. Through his performances, and their glowing reviews, Golovkin has emerged as boxing’s latest ‘most feared’ man on the planet. He’s the guy seemingly no big name wants to square off with unless the money is right. Fans tune in to Golovkin to see if his now 20-fight knockout streak extends. It doesn’t matter if the opponents are qualified contenders like Martin Murray or fringe players like Curtis Stevens.

Like Mike Tyson once upon a time, it’s about the carnage as much as the competition.

Despite the improvements he appears to have made since back-to-back losses in 2011, for all the power he carries, Lemieux is seen as little more than another opponent this weekend. His power and style make this more attractive than something like Golovkin’s last outing with the lighter punching Willie Monroe.

He’s still a guy with losses to Joachim Alcine and Marco Antonio Rubio. He’s still expected to fall.

What if he doesn’t?

The tricky thing about facing a legitimate puncher is the unpredictable nature of boxing itself. Sometimes, often times, the other guy is going to land. Golovkin might appear a machine, but he’s not. He’s a fighter. They can all go for ten seconds if they are caught right.

The biggest fight of Golovkin’s career is something people are still envisioning down the road. It says here this is the biggest of them all so far. It’s not because Lemieux is that much better than some of his other foes.

It’s because of where the momentum lies. Reportedly, Golovkin-Lemieux has no rematch clause. A win would put Lemieux in the driver’s seat for the winner of Cotto-Alvarez. For Golden Boy Promotions, a Lemieux-Alvarez clash would be an in-house promotional coup.

Even with a loss, Golovkin wouldn’t stop being someone his fans like to see. He would remain a serious threat to anyone at 160 lbs. and be favored above most. Without the perception of him as boxing Godzilla, the growing demand for Golovkin to get the name opponents he lacks would quiet quickly. His quality of professional competition to date, already criticized by some, would get an even more harsh microscope.

At 33, he’d be a guy that much easier to bypass on the way to anyone else. From the cusp of everything he’s worked for, Golovkin might end up just as far away from it as he was when he first arrived in the US with a win over Gregorz Proksa in 2012.

Gennady Golovkin is on the verge of superstardom. He’ll probably get there.

What if he doesn’t?

Without a win this weekend, the “Big Drama Show” might never get much bigger than it will be this weekend at the Garden.   
  
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com