by Cliff Rold

When 2018 began, the question still lingered: when would Deontay Wilder step up his competition?

No one is asking that as the end of the year draws near.

In March, he quieted doubters in what remains one of the year’s best fights. Falling behind early, Wilder dropped Ortiz in the fifth, survived a hellish assault in the seventh, and put Ortiz away in round ten. As good as Ortiz was for long stretches of the fight, Wilder’s heart proved even better. So did his power.

Wilder isn’t following Ortiz with an easy one.

Unable to secure a unification bout with Anthony Joshua, Wilder turned to the next biggest fight available. Tyson Fury’s outside the ring problems cost him two years of his career but, after a pair of rust busting tune-ups, the man who beat the man is ready to show the world that he remains the best.

Fury upset the odds in 2015 to unseat long reigning Wladimir Klitscko to win three major titles and the lineal crown. It wasn’t a classic fight but it was an intriguing performance. Fury used a combination of feints, moxie, and just enough landed blows to befuddle and clearly outbox Klitschko for twelve rounds.

Was he a one-hit wonder as far as the top of the class goes or was it just a first chapter in an interrupted story that will continue to unfold Saturday night (Showtime PPV, 9 PM EST)  

Let’s get into it.

Stats and Stakes

Tyson Fury

Titles: Lineal World Heavyweight (2015-Present, 2 defenses)

Previous Titles: TBRB/Ring/WBA/IBF/WBO (2015-16)

Age: 30

Height: 6’9

Weight: 256 ½ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Manchester, Lancashire, United Kingdom

Record: 27-0, 19 KO

Rankings: #3 (Boxing Monthly), #5 (BoxRec), #7 (Ring), #8 (TBRB)

Record in Major Title Fights: 1-0 (3-0 including lineal title fights) 

Last Five Opponents: 159-15-1 (.911)

Current/Former World Champions Faced: Steve Cunningham KO7; Wladimir Klitschko UD12

Vs.

Deontay Wilder

Age: 33

Title: WBC heavyweight (2015-Present, 7 defenses)

Previous Titles: None

Height: 6’7  

Weight: 212 ½ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Record: 40-0, 39 KO?

Rankings: #2 (TBRB, ESPN, Ring, Boxing Monthly, BoxRec)

Record in Major Title Fights: 8-0, 7 KO

Last Five Opponents: 117-7-3 (.933)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: Sergey Lyakhovich KO1; Bermane Stiverne UD12, KO1

The Case for Wilder: Wilder is used to being the taller man in most fights but that won’t be the case here. He’ll still hold the advantage he does over most of the men in the division: he’s faster and he hits harder. Wilder’s right hand is as lethal a weapon as there is in boxing right now and he never loses faith in it. His weight for the fight suggests he’s leaning on his speed and agility to land it. To get it home, Wilder will likely have to deal with mind games as much as a physical challenge. Fury isn’t afraid to taunt and mock opponents in the ring; he’s a crafty boxer for a man his size. Wilder’s feet can often appear a mess. Sometimes they look almost squared up; against Ortiz they were often too wide. He compensates with an underrated jab and an explosiveness that overcomes technical flaws. Wilder can catch fighters from angles they weren’t expecting and does it with authority. It would be a mistake to be reckless; Fury may not punch as hard as him but he has shown flashes of power. Given his mass, nothing should be taken for granted. Wilder has proven to have excellent stamina and never arrives out of shape. Five of his seven knockouts in title fights have come after the bell to start the eighth round. It doesn’t matter that he’s been outboxed at times. He doesn’t necessarily come to win rounds. He comes to win fights and is a danger to do it as long as he’s standing.  

The Case for Fury: Early in his career, Fury would never have been someone most would pick to eventually become champion of the world. He’s huge, long, awkward, and can sometimes appear almost clumsy. One famous highlight was the long armed Fury accidentally landing an uppercut on himself. Appearances are deceiving. Fury, like Wilder, is a fighter who has clearly worked hard to refine a craft that works for him and, also like Wilder, has proven to be a gamer. In fights that were supposed to be tests like the first bout with Derek Chisora or the Klitschko fight, Fury has come up huge. He’s been on the floor, against Cunningham, but he got up and won by knockout and knockdowns between 200 lb. and more men happen. To date, Fury has taken other shots fine. He hasn’t taken a bomb from a puncher like Wilder but, against a an even more proven Klitshcko who was one of the most devastating heavyweight punchers of any era, he didn’t have to. Fury can win here if he makes Wilder bite on feints and treats the fight as a marathon. He does come to win rounds. Fury at his best changes speed on his punches, blocks well with the gloves and shoulders, and finds room for his right hand at range. If Ortiz, Artur Szpilka, and Gerald Washington could outbox Wilder at times, so can Fury and he’ll be doing it with an edge in height and reach over the older titlist.    

The Pick

This is a really tough fight to pick because the potential outcomes all seem realistic. One of them could stun the other with a big shot early. Wilder could be outboxed for a long time and then turn the fight around with the right hand. Fury could make it ugly and, as the visiting team, appear to be winning but not do quite enough to make the rounds clear. What might it look like along the way?

Fury is typically more active but lands with less accuracy. That could play to an awkward match at times because Wilder, while a hair more accurate, isn’t a volume puncher. If there is concern about how Fury will handle a long fight, the career activity rate of Wilder suggests a pace that shouldn’t make that much of a factor.

Unless one of them lands something wild early to end things, expect this to go rounds.

Through his first 32 fights, Wilder didn’t average a full two rounds a fight. Since Wilder began stepping up the competition in his first fight with Bermane Stiverne, his power has taken time to emerge with his fights extending to a little more than seven rounds per outing. Fury averages about six rounds a fight for his career. What has happened in those rounds suggests routes to victory for both.

For years, questions hovered around the chin of Wilder because of an early scare against Harold Sconiers. He answered some of those questions against Ortiz. Some will point to Cunningham being able to drop Fury in 2013 and contrast that with the question of how a similar shot from Wilder would play out. Looking at a single mistake from one fight is seldom a wise path to choosing a victor. Fury’s chin has otherwise been fine.

An exciting element is that both guys have been gamers and, when their big tests have arrived, they passed them. They will both fight believing victory is within reach. Ultimately, one guy has more ways to win here and Fury has had the time he needs to get back in shape, shake off inactivity, and at his age shouldn’t be hindered too much by previous time away.

Fury is the better boxer, and the harder man to catch clean when he elects to box, move, and react to opponents. He’s the more skilled counter puncher too. Eventually, Wilder will land something. His jab is hard, quick, and blinds well for the right hand behind it. If Fury can take it, or at least get up from it and resume boxing, he can win.

The thinking here is that when a fighter’s best chance might be to hang around long enough to land one big shot, eventually they run into a boxer who you need more than that to beat. For Wilder, a focused Fury who fights with respect for the right hand wins enough rounds, frustrates Wilder’s offense for long stretches, and manages to beat a count if called on to earn a decision on Saturday. 

Rold Picks 2018: 56-20 (Including Freshmart-Rojas)

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel, the Yahoo Pound for Pound voting panel, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com