By Cliff Rold
The weekend starts with unification and ends with a World champion facing his number one contender.
It doesn’t get much better than that…on paper.
Two dreaded words always hanging over Boxing matches up to the opening and indeed through the closing bell. “On paper.” Fans keep them tucked in the back of the collective fistic consciousness, never letting hopes rise too high. This could be a weekend where it’s good to do so.
As good as the fights are ‘on paper’ there are elements in each which give reason for pause. There are, luckily, also elements lending themselves to quality finishes on both Friday and Saturday night. What will we get?
Let’s go to the report cards.
Steve Molitor-Celestino Caballero (Showtime, Friday 11 PM EST/PST)
Speed – Molitor B; Caballero B
Power – Caballero B+; Molitor B-
Defense – B for Both
Intangibles – B for Both
Both the 28-year old IBF 122 lb. titlist Molitor (28-0, 11 KO) of Canada and the 32-year old WBA titlist Celestino Caballero (30-2, 21 KO) of Panama have five title defenses under their belts heading into Friday night, but none will have been as a big as this. They’ll know it and it should pay off for fans.
They appear on film to be about even in terms of speed. Caballero may have had the edge were he a couple of years younger but he seems to have slowed down just a tad from where he was when he put the first loss on the ledger of power punching Daniel Ponce De Leon. How speed is employed then will be crucial. Both men are more comfortable letting their opponents lead and countering, Molitor in particular. His knockout percentage speaks for itself; he wins through landing in high volume and walking foes into traps.
Caballero also is more comfortable in counter but he has an aggressive side as well. In taking his belt from Somsak Sithchatchawal in 2006, he turned counters into avenues for explosion. At 5’11, his right hand slams down into opponents and when he’s able to maximize leverage moving forward. His last three wins, all by stoppage, are evidence of as much.
Both have solid defense and are tough to catch clean, but Molitor may have the slight edge. His best hopes for victory are to get in and out on the taller man, and Caballero sometimes gives away his height, leaving his hands low when on offense. Molitor also has this: both of Caballero’s losses, a stoppage versus Jose Rojas and lopsided decision to Ricardo Cordoba, came to southpaws. His best win, Sithchatchawal, also came versus a southpaw but the Thai was all aggression and walked right into the bombs. Molitor won’t.
In terms of intangibles, Caballero has shown the ability to both rise and sink to occasions. Sithchatchawal and De Leon were both critical moments and he delivered. However, in his biggest television appearance to date, he was dull in defeating Jorge Lacierva on the undercard of Israel Vasquez-Rafael Marquez II, but that could have been a style issue. We know his chin can be dented but does Molitor have the power to do it? And what of Molitor’s chin? This is its first truly serious test. He was almost dropped by veteran Fahsan 3K Battery early in their 2007 bout but bounced back to win just about every second from there. So far, every new test has been passed by Molitor. Consider this a final exam.
The Pick: This is a difficult fight to pick, and could go either way, because it’s hard to figure out how Molitor deals with someone as tall and gangly as Caballero until he does. More is known about the Panamanian to date, but that’s the point of making the fights. Molitor’s patient counter punching is going to force Caballero to be the aggressor and when he does, the Canadian will have him where he wants him. He might have to come off the floor early but look for the younger Molitor to take over in the second half of a high-paced chess match for a close decision win.
And then there’s Saturday…
Ricky Hatton-Paulie Malignaggi (HBO, Saturday 10 PM EST/7 PM PST)
Speed – Malignaggi B+; Hatton B
Power – Hatton B; Malignaggi C-
Defense – Malignaggi B; Hatton B-
Intangibles – Malignaggi B+; Hatton B
There are good and bad elements to Manchester, England’s Hatton (44-1, 31 KO) reign as lineal World Jr. Welterweight champion. The good is that his reign has featured him defending only against legitimate top ten contenders. The bad is that Brooklyn, New York’s Malignaggi (25-1, 5 KO), 27, seen by many as his number one contender for the moment, marks only the fifth such challenger. Three year reigns with only five title defenses are okay, but it could be much better.
The 30-year old Hatton might be better off if it was. Since defeating Kostya Tszyu for the crown in June 2005, this is Hatton’s seventh overall appearance in the ring. Given his battles with the scale, sporadic activity might say something about stamina issues and what was almost an epic disaster in May against Juan Lazcano. Hurt severely late in the fight, a referee sympathetic to an untied shoelace may well have kept him his title.
In terms of speed, Hatton hasn’t really lost much since Tszyu early in fights but he slows down considerably at 140 lbs. later in fights. Malignaggi, if nothing else, remains quick from start to finish. His speed made him game against Miguel Cotto in his sole defeat and dominated veteran Lovemore N’Dou in their first battle. Neither man is any sort of epic puncher. Malignaggi hasn’t stopped anyone since 2003. Hatton one-punched the rugged Jose Luis Castillo to the body last year, but his wins in recent years have more often been a product of steady pressure and a willingness to play rough in clinches.
For a boxer type, Malignaggi actually gets hit quite a bit and while Hatton does as well, the champion’s punches will appear to have greater affect. Malignaggi must play matador to a charging Hatton, moving side to side and avoiding wrestling matches. Frustrate Hatton and the champion could begin neglecting his jab and bulling head first, an advantage for Malignaggi. It’s been a bad trait for Hatton since the Tszyu fight. He used to employ a smart jab; now he too often just employs his face.
The insides of both fighters are little in doubt. Malignaggi has an excellent chin along with focus and guts to go with it. He took brutal shots from Cotto and kept firing. In the N’Dou rematch on the undercard of Hatton-Lazcano, a bad choice of hair extensions or whatever the hell they were led to a mid-fight hair cut to go with a busted hand and yet Malignaggi never completely lost his cool and kept his hopes for this career-making opportunity alive. Hatton of course is all fighter, but he can lose focus, perhaps again because of stamina issues. Late in fights against Luis Collazo and Lazcano, he was hanging on for dear life. Late in the mega-fight with Floyd Mayweather last December, he was hanging the first “L” on his record inside the distance. Does Maliganggi possess enough pop to demand respect and succeed in any similar fashion?
The Pick: Something about this fight says Malignaggi scores the upset, that Hatton is ripe for the pickings. Still, promotional interests, money and style say Hatton could eek it out even if Malignaggi has a great night. At 140, Hatton is strong and there are going to be some grappling moments where he lands and manhandles Malignaggi. He should have enough of them to steal rounds even as he’s getting outlanded in terms of clean blows. The pick is Hatton by a narrow, possibly controversial, decision.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
