Kostya Tszyu and Sharmba Mitchell fight on November 6th to decide who is the best 140-pound fighter. Over three years ago, Mitchell suffered a knee injury that forced him to quit in the seventh round in their first fight. At the time of the stoppage, Tszyu led on two of the three scorecards and was even on the third. Mitchell lack of mobility hurt the speedy American and Tszyu started to take command of the fight. For Mitchell, this is payback. He has had this fight on his calendar for three years and this is the one fight that could define his career. If Mitchell wins, he can claim an element of greatness in defeating one of the better fighters in the past decade. Kostya Tszyu has been the best 140-pound fighter over the past decade but age and injuries has many doubting whether this great champion can marshal his resource to beat the more active Mitchell. While Tszyu has been recovering from injuries, Mitchell has been staying busy. For Mitchell, every fight over the past three years has been a dress rehearsal for this night. This is his Super Bowl.
This fight is a classic boxer versus slugger but the real question that remains is how much will the eighteen-month layoff hurt Tszyu? Al Bernstein, the Showtime analyst, told me, “The layoff, and the nature of Tszyu’s injuries make it a very real possibility that he won't be at his best for this match.”
Bernstein added, “The movement of Mitchell is a key component--that is the one thing that can give Tszyu trouble.” Mitchell key to victory will be his mobility. He will not knock Tszyu out with one shot but he does have enough power to sting Kostya Tszyu and make the champion respect him. This is one key in this fight. Tszyu must be discouraged from boring right in Mitchell. As Al Bernstein noted, “Tszyu showed against Zab Judah that he can cut the ring off, and he has a way of landing a right hand against a lefty--this is something Mitchell must combat.” Mitchell’s southpaw stance will not puzzle the veteran Tszyu and Tszyu’s right can end the fight with one shot.
At 34, Mitchell may have difficulty moving for the entire 12 rounds but as Al Bernstein stated, “. I'm not sure Mitchell can stick and move for a full twelve rounds, but he might have just enough movement against a rusty Tszyu to get the job done.” Mitchell may not be able to knock Tszyu out with one punch but he can certainly hurt Tszyu with a culmination of punches.
If this fight were held two years ago, Kostya Tszyu would be the favorite with his power and ability to cut off the ring. However, Tszyu layoff makes this fight a pick em.
The key to victories will settle down to these points:
- Can Tszyu shake off the ring rust and pressure Mitchell?
- Will Mitchell be able to take control in the early rounds and set the pace against a tired and rusty Tszyu?
- How much does the 18-month layoff hurt the 34-year-old Tszyu?
My own prediction is that Mitchell upsets Tszyu to either win a decision or late round TKO. For me, the major factor that tips this fight is the layoff. It is not just the layoff that bothers me about Tszyu but whether Tszyu is fully recovered from his shoulder and Achilles tendon injuries. Tszyu is the more powerful puncher and certainly he could end this fight early just as he did against Jab Judah. On November 6th, Mitchell will be the king of the 140-pounders. At least until he fights Mayweather.