Thurman-Guerrero/Ruenroeng-Shiming: Pre-Report Cards

by Cliff Rold

Good promotion matters. Fan interest matters. Personality matters.

All of those can be factors in building a fighter into a draw.

Eventually none of that matters at all. The bell rings and the man across the ring gets his say as to whether or not those extras can be maximized and monetized.

All that matters then is what can be delivered.

This weekend, two fighters with bigger star potential get the toughest tests of their professional careers. One is the centerpiece of an emerging boxing market, a two-time Olympic Gold Medalist brought along quickly and carefully to a calculated gamble. The other is a loquacious boxer/puncher granted the first prime time network television main event platform in a generation.

They will determine how much they matter going forward. 

Let’s go the report cards, beginning with boxing’s return to prime time NBC on Saturday night (8:30 PM EST/5:30 PM PST).

The Ledgers

Keith Thurman
Age: 26
Title: WBA Welterweight (2013-Present, 3 Defenses); Version of the title is the WBA’s sub-belt below unified WBA/WBC titlist Floyd Mayweather
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’7 ½ 
Weight: 147 lbs.
Hails from: Clearwater, Florida
Record: 24-0, 21 KO

Record in Major Title Fights: 4-0, 3 KO, all in interim title fights to date
Rankings: #5 (ESPN), #6 (BoxRec), #7 (BoxingScene, Ring), #8 (TBRB)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 2 (Carlos Quintana TKO4; Julio Diaz RTD3)

Vs.

Robert Guerrero
Age: 31
Title: None
Previous Titles: IBF Featherweight (2006; 2007-09, 2 Defenses); IBF Super Featherweight (2009)
Height: 5’8
Weight: 147 lbs.
Hails from: Gilroy, California
Record: 32-2-1, 18 KO, 2 No Contests

Record in Major Title Fights: 5-1, 4 KO, 1 No Contest (8-1, 4 KO, 1 No Contest including interim title fights)
Rankings: #8 (Ring), #10 (BoxingScene, ESPN, BoxRec)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 9 (Juan Polo Perez TKO2; Enrique Sanchez TKO8; Gamaliel Diaz L12, KO6; Eric Aiken RTD8; Orlando Salido NC; Malcolm Klassen UD12; Joel Casamayor UD10; Andre Berto UD12; Floyd Mayweather L12)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Thurman B; Guerrero B
Pre-Fight: Power – Thurman A-; Guerrero B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Thurman B; Guerrero B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Thurman B+; Guerrero B+

Physically, it’s hard to tell watching tape which man really has the quicker hands. Neither appears blazing but both are quick enough with good timing. Guerrero, when he establishes it, can have an effective jab. Thurman can as well but sometimes sacrifices it looking for big shots. In his last fight, despite crowd displeasure, Thurman boxed more than has been the case recently. It wasn’t fan friendly but it revealed that he has that dimension in his game.

It came after Thurman scored an early knockdown of challenger Leonard Bundu. Thurman has big personality. That he also has shown a big punch is why so he intrigues many. He hasn’t faced the same level of foe Guerrero but there have been some quality knockouts against the sturdy Jesus Soto Karass and Diego Chaves. Guerrero has never been stopped.

Thurman would make a statement if he can pull it off.

Both men have defensive liabilities. Thurman has been rocked a few times. Guerrero has left his share of fights with cuts and bruises to show for the hurt business. Both men will be open on Saturday. Can Guerrero’s experience be the difference? He’s seen a number of veteran looks and, while he was hopeless against Mayweather, he’s typically acquitted himself well.  Titles in two divisions, and interim belts in two more, didn’t come by accident.

A key to this fight could be how Thurman handles the rough stuff. Guerrero comes to win. If that means holding and hitting or other line-toeing tactics, he’ll do it. It can frustrate foes and draw them into prolonged exchanges. Thurman is the naturally bigger man but Guerrero is a cagey southpaw in need of a win. Expect some terse moments. 

Amnat Ruenroeng
Age: 35
Title: IBF Flyweight (2014-Present, 2 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’4 ½ 
Weight: 112 lbs.
Hails from: Chonburi, Thailand
Record: 14-0, 5 KO

Record in Major Title Fights: 3-0
Rankings: #2 (BoxingScene, TBRB), #5 (Ring), #9 (ESPN), #10 (BoxRec)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 1 (Kazuto Ioka)

Vs.

Zou Shiming
Age: 33
Title/Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’4 ½
Weight: 111.6 lbs.
Hails from: Zunyi, China
Record: 6-0, 1 KO

Record in Major Title Fights: 1st Major Title Fight
Rankings: Unrated
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 0

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Ruenroeng B+; Shiming A-
Pre-Fight: Power – Ruenroeng C; Shiming C
Pre-Fight: Defense – Ruenroeng B+; Shiming B-
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Ruenroeng A; Shiming B

These two former Olympian never met on that biggest of amateur stages. They did square off three times in their unpaid runs, Shiming edging two of those encounters. Shiming, who won Bronze and two Gold medals in three Olympic appearances, is the big star hopeful here.

The fledgling attempt to bring big-time boxing to China has featured him as a key player from his first paid contest. His entire career to date, including this first title shot, has been hosted at the Venetian in Macau. Saturday (aired via tape delay on HBO2, 5:30 PM EST/PST), he’s making a big leap in competition.

Ruenroeng doesn’t have that many more pro fights. The big separation in experience between the two was the Thai’s 2014 campaign. He won a vacant title against solid veteran Rocky Fuentes, went on the road to upset undefeated two-division titlist Kazuto Ioka, and came off the floor to defeat former Olympian McWilliams Arroyo.

It’s the way he wins that makes him a tall order for Shiming. Ruenroeng is a patient, calm fighter who works well off the jab. He’s not as quick as Shiming but his timing is canny and he doesn’t shake. His background, featuring years in a Thai prison, and demeanor is a little Hopkins-esque.

That includes his willingness to make fights ugly. Ruenroeng will jab, counter, hold, and scrap inside. He is unapologetically trying to win. Shiming can defuse some of that with a good start. A long fight is going to favor Ruenroeng. For Shiming to have a chance, we need to see more of his last outing.

In his last fight, Shiming looked the best he has to date for the first half. He flagged as the fight wore on, but it was also his first time going twelve. If he’s that sharp early against Ruenroeng, he can pile rounds with his combinations and movement.  Can he pile enough? Ruenroeng gets better as fights wear on.  

The Pick

Starting at Flyweight, the thinking here is Shiming can win enough rounds early to give himself a chance. Ruenroeng could also flirt with some point deductions if he tries to get muggy. The first half of this fight should be pretty good. The second half could get pretty ugly. Shiming has made tremendous strides from his pro debut and become a more professional style fighter. If Ruenroeng were a puncher, this fight would not be happening. He’s not and Shiming is the pick to pull the razor thin upset before even factoring in that he has tremendous home court advantage here.

At Welterweight, Thurman’s heavy hands and less wear and tear should come in handy. Guerrero, outside the Berto fight, hasn’t shown real devastating power at Welterweight and may be up a class too high for his best chances. Thurman will be charged up after that last boring outing and this is as big a stage as he could ask for. Guerrero is more experienced but he's not hard to hit and as Thurman starts to find the target he could swell into a mess. A late corner stoppage is possible here.  A Thurman win is the pick.

Report Card and Staff Picks 2015: 8-1 (Including Pick in Tete-Butler)

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel, the Yahoo Pound for Pound voting panel, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com