By Cliff Rold

All careers, big or small time, have their stages and arcs.  To the individual riding those arcs, it almost certainly feels unique.  It should.  They are the one living it, getting hit for it. 

The reality though is there is only so much uniqueness to go around.  Long time followers of the sweet science can sometimes seem a jaded, cynical lot.  Partly it’s because they are.  Partly it’s because the longer the sport is followed, the more it takes to impress.  Fans who grew up as children in the 1980s, or teenagers in the 1990s, know how frustrating the wisdom of age can be.  They saw Tyson, they saw Jones, and they wondered aloud if anyone could ever have been better than the physical marvels witnessed.

Amongst the majority of elders, the best the young could often get is a “we’ll see” and when those men faltered the aged could look again and say, “that’s why.” 

So, no, rarely is something purely new but recognizing something as old hat and not being able to appreciate it are two different things.  This weekend, three fighters in different locations and on separate networks will all step into time honored positions.  Each is on the verge of something new, something big, in their career.  They are at different places on the ladder to the very top of the game but can find a shared bond in knowing each is doing only what they can in reaching for the next rung.

The Verge of Contention

The first man up will be in the main event on ESPN2’s Friday Night Fights.  22-year old Middleweight Daniel Jacobs (16-0, 14 KO) may or may not make it to the big stages.  He’s being moved like it’s expected. 

Turned pro in December 2007, Jacobs is averaging almost a fight a month in his career to date.  It’s a decidedly old school approach from his handlers at Golden Boy Promotions.  It’s become, sadly, common in the modern era for young men of potential to find themselves hitting their seventeenth pro fight in twice the time it’s taken Jacobs.

Two current examples stand out.  Both Olympic Medalists in 2004, Gold winner Andre Ward just reached his nineteenth win against zero losses while Bronze winner Andre Dirrell recently found win number eighteen.  Ward turned pro before 2004 was out; Dirrell weeks into 2005.  While both can say they’ve faced better competition in the pros than Jacobs to date, the gap can narrow quickly.  

While those days grow near, what fans can take away from the Walton bout, and the Michael Walker bout preceding it, is Jacobs is being moved past the men who bolster confidence by falling over and into the realm of those who bolster confidence by staying up.  Walker had never been stopped and took Jacobs the distance for only the second time.  Walton similarly has finished every fight he’s been in.  Neither man is a lights out puncher; those tests can be held off.

For now, we’re seeing a quality prospect get the rounds he needs to go with the numbers in the win column.  He’ll need them.  While objective ratings at places like Ring Magazine, ESPN, Boxing Monthly, or here at BoxingScene, don’t yet have Jacobs in contention at Middleweight, one sanctioning body has already begun a flirtation.  Jacobs sits at #8 in the latest WBA ratings and while it doesn’t speak highly of the WBA, it does say a lot about the trajectory of Jacobs career.  The idea of a mandatory position within the next year in realistic.

Jacobs stands on the verge of serious contention, making each of his progression bouts increasingly compelling.  Will he continue to rise or is there a tripping point?  Walton shouldn’t be it but we’ve all seen tomorrow’s stars become crashing asteroids before. 

It can be presumed for now Jacobs is safe.  A promotional stable mate is anything but on Saturday.

The Verge of Gold

The location of HBO Boxing After dark headliner this weekend speaks volumes about Golden Boy’s faith in 22-year old Jr. Welterweight Victor Ortiz (24-1-1, 19 KO).  He’s not working some small platform in Los Angeles; the Oxnard, California native has the Staples Center floor to himself.  Opponent Marcos Maidana (25-1, 24 KO) would love to leave him laying there at night’s end and has the pop to do it.

Maidana also has something Ortiz is still searching for.  He has quality championship rounds under his belt.  While the class of WBA 140 lb. titlist Andriy Kotelnik was too much for the Argentine but only by a little.  Maidana earned a split decision this past February, one point shy of a draw and within a round of it on the other losing card turned in.

Ortiz, who was forced to come off the floor to defeat Dario Esalas last year, has heavier, fresher hands to deal with this time.  Win and the rewards could be huge.  In a career marred only by a first-round disqualification in 2005 and a technical draw in 2007, Ortiz has slowly worked his way through the channels.  He’s been where Jacobs has been and moved past it with knockouts of former titlist Carlos Maussa and former title challenger Mike Arnaoutis in his last five outings.  This should be an even sterner test…

…and one where the pressure mounts.  As was the case with Miguel Cotto early in his career, Ortiz is being gate tested in the market which can make him rich.  While he may not pack the rafters this time out, victory will further buzz and build towards the day when Ortiz could become a Los Angeles event.  He’ll certainly move towards title gold should he notch win number 23. 

In the most recent BoxingScene ratings, he crept in at #10 and while he isn’t there yet on some of the other ratings mentioned above, Maidana is (#8 Boxing Monthly; #10 ESPN and Ring).  He’s even higher in some of the sanctioning body ratings (#3 WBA, #2 WBO).

While sanctioning body titles have myriad problems, they remain economic gateways which influence TV money, promotional angles, and fighter confidence.  Saturday, Ortiz can take a massive step towards that realm and all but guarantee himself a shot at someone’s belt before 2009 is out.

Or he can wake up to find it all slipped away, passed Go with nothing to show for it.  It’s a familiar drama which never gets old.  What can get old is the waiting game for fighters of proven talent frustrated by the slow pace of opportunity.

The Verge of Global Recognition

It’s not that 29-year old IBF Middleweight titlist Arthur Abraham (29-0, 23 KO) hasn’t had quality opportunities.  His title reign has lasted since December of 2005, he’s earned six stoppages in ten title defenses, and almost everyone has him as the number one threat to lineal World Middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (35-1, 31 KO). 

Therein lies the problem.

Methodical and patient behind a heavy left jab, Abraham has proven he can both outbox and outpunch good fighters.  Sometimes though, good has to stop being good enough.  Abraham is the latest German based fighter to generate conversation in the States but unlike so many before him he seems truly driven to test the best in the rest of the world.  He also is someone whose handlers how real belief in him.  Concerted efforts have been made to get Abraham in front of the U.S. eyes which will determine the chance at substantial U.S. dollars. 

The difference between being just good and perhaps making a run at the pound-for-pound lists which (overly) influence the game is Pavlik.  BoxingScene’s Jake Donovan discussed the Pavlik issue with Abraham this week, among other things, and it will be well worth a read sometime between now and the weekend. 

For now, Abraham has Mahir Oral (25-1-2, 10 KO) on a special Saturday ShoBox.  It’s a voluntary defense between a presumed mandatory later in 2009 with Giovanni Lorenzo (27-1, 19 KO).  Could one of these challenges be the trap every fighter hopes to avoid?  Abraham has been alleged to struggle with staying at 160 lbs. and fights with a more conservative approach lately, almost like he’s reserving energy.  No one can be a fight fan long and not know the sting of anticipating a big fight only to see one half of anticipation meet a shield carry. 

Sometimes the time taken in building a big fight pays off; sometimes it doesn’t pay at all.  Abraham couldn’t get the big fight when Jermain Taylor was on top and, while Team Pavlik has mentioned his name since the night they ascended to the crown in 2007, the fight remains in ‘maybe after (insert scenario here)’ land.  Abraham is at a decidedly dangerous crossroads, a mental test to see if he can maintain his spot long enough to receive the chance to better it.

He, of all this weekend’s key main event players, is the closest to the top of the ladder.  He need only reach the final rung and hoist himself up to be the king of his division’s mountain.  It won’t be long though before a Jacobs or Ortiz (or Maidana) is right behind him.  No matter their different stages, the climb is the same. 

We can all watch with measured anticipation, waiting to see.

The Weekly Ledger

But wait…there’s more.

Cliff’s Notes…

Here’s why we know Heavyweight still REALLY matter.  If Adrian Diaconu-Jean Pascal had been the Heavyweight fight, and Wladimir Klitschko-Ruslan Chagaev the Light Heavyweight bout, no one outside Germany would have even heard about the latter and the former might have people talking about a rebirth of the sport.  Every time one finds themselves bickering about tedious Heavyweights, they should force themselves to watch and converse about fights like Pascal-Diaconu right away…So, word is the new Transformers movie is really dumb.  Wow.  Really?  Um, has anyone ever watched the cartoon again after elementary school?  Dear Critics: sometimes giant robots wrecking stuff while Megan Fox stands around basking in the hotness is good enough.  If that’s not cool, go see the new Star Trek again.  It rocked any way sliced…Yes, WBO Jr. Featherweight titlist Juan Manuel Lopez’s fight this weekend could have been mentioned as well but ‘the verge of killing time’ just wasn’t compelling.  That said, he is probably the best of the whole crew this weekend and when the big fights fall in line, we should all be in for a treat.

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com