By Charles Jay
One would argue that like Jermain Taylor, light heavyweight champ Antonio Tarver is a tall, angular guy who kind of hard to get to. Add to that the fact that he's a southpaw, and the natural question is how would Bernard Hopkins make this result any different than his two losses to Taylor?
After all, Tarver is younger, bigger, presents a style problem, and has some accomplishments under his belt, while Hopkins is over 40 and on a two-fight losing streak.
It doesn't appear as if the chips would be stacked in Hopkins' favor.
You can't help but respect what Tarver's done as a pro. But for those of us who go back that far, when he was an amateur we honestly expected a little more out of him. He didn't achieve what he wanted to in the Olympics; part of that may have been that he was somewhat spoiled while still in the "non-paid" ranks. It is clear he had already been recruited by professionals and had some of the resultant accoutrements long before his Olympic bid.
Tarver wants to be in the Hall of Fame. By the standards that exist now, he probably will be. He gained revenge with wins over Eric Harding and Glen Johnson, and beat Roy Jones two out of three times. He comes to the table with some credentials, but they're not overwhelming. he was awkward for Jones to fight, to be sure, but I don't know if I consider him to be impenetrable.
I don't consider Tarver to be anything sensational. Solid, yes. But sensational, no. There are chinks in his armor. I'll tell you this much - if I were betting on Tarver I'd be worried about what happened in that third Jones fight. At a couple of different junctures he was out on his feet and ready to go, but Jones confirmed that he was at that point in his career where he just couldn't pull the trigger anymore. If he was sharp; if he were the Roy Jones of old instead of the old Roy Jones, Tarver may very well have been knocked out. So let's not lose perspective on that, and let's caution ourselves against possibly overrating Tarver based on the Jones fights.
Although you may hear differently from certain HBO announcers who are not well-versed in boxing history, Bernard Hopkins is not an all-time great fighter. I've editorialized about that on more than one occasion, so I won't do it all over again except to say that it would be fair to put Hopkins on an all-time Top 20 list of middles, but to go much further might be stretching it.
Clearly Hopkins is on the downside of his career; some of that was masked by big wins over guys who were more comfortable - and more importantly, more accomplished - at the welterweight level, such as Felix Trinidad and Oscar De la Hoya. Against Taylor he looked like an aging fighter who, like Jones against Tarver, had some trouble pulling the trigger.
Although I think Hopkins may have a tendency to think himself to death in the ring, and in those fights with Taylor it kind of backfired on him, it could be that playing the role of the thinking man's fighter works to his advantage here. My belief, and this is something not necessarily shared with a lot of people, is that at this point Taylor has more ability than Tarver, and that factor, more than anything, gave Hopkins some pause in that pair of bouts. But Hopkins had a good idea with his strategy, especially in the first meeting, in letting the guy wear himself out and tire late.
Of course, some of that was nervous energy on the part of Taylor, who was taking a big step up in terms of opposition. Tarver won't likely be that anxious. But there's good shot that if Hopkins makes him work enough early, Tarver may get tired late as well.
Hopkins understands that he has a certain mountain to climb. He's got to overcome Tarver's advantages in height, weight and reach; he has to overcome perhaps his own inability to fight twelve rounds hard, and skipping past 168 pounds and moving right up to the light heavyweight division is not an easy undertaking. But he relishes the challenge, that's for sure. And he has enough of a boxing mind to pull it off.
You can't lose sight of a couple of other things. As we speak of the advantage of his "youth," keep in mind that Tarver is 37 years old. And for a 37-year-old, he is relatively inexperienced, with only 27 fights to his credit. That kind of thing is not the stuff of legend. When it comes down to it, maybe the fact that he is natural at 175 pounds by far the biggest advantage Tarver brings into this matchup.
Don't forget also - Hopkins is not as far gone as Jones demonstrated in his third fight with Tarver. I am confident Bernard can still spot some openings, and land the appropriate shots when he sees them. Landing enough of them is the only question. But there's something that tells me he can diagnose Tarver's weaknesses and exploit them, enough to provide a lot of trouble. I don't know if he is going to win the fight, but I wouldn't mind taking a shot at the price that is offered.
And that price, if you shop around, is at least 2-1 and, at press time, as much as 11-5 on Hopkins.
You know, for a while everybody in boxing seemed to be ga-ga over Miguel Angel Cotto. One national writer named him the "Prospect of the Year" and predicted great things. Television people touted him as a Latin savior, ready to fill the void when fighters like Oscar De la Hoya, Felix Trinidad and Marco Antonio Barrera left the scene.
I knew better.
Early on, I saw him against some mediocre opponent who could hardly hold up his hands and for most of the fight, he kept Cotto at bay simply by being able to take one step to the left or to the right. Of course, in the title-crazy atmosphere we have in boxing, it was inevitable that Cotto was going to win a belt, but as we know, that doesn't necessarily have to man anything.
Sure, he's progressed since then, but certainly not to the point where anyone should place him on a list of future immortals. He's not the next Oscar De la Hoya, as I'm sure Top Rank had hoped, but he could become a Latin version of the all-action Arturo Gatti. Some of the people who have becomes more realistic about Cotto have pointed that out. But you know, that's not the worst thing in the world if you want to get TV dates and make some money.
At the same time, when you compare someone to Gatti you're saying that he's just good enough to win the championship of about one-quarter of the world, but lacks the kind of dominance to avoid being in tough against just about any foe with some class.
When he was climbing the ranks against hand-picked opponents, if you had suggested that Cotto would have life-and-death with the likes of Demarcus Corley and Ricardo Torres, you would have been scoffed at. But that is exactly what happened. And it wasn't an accident.
One of Cotto's Achilles heels is that he has a suspect chin. You hit him on the button, he's all over the place. In that way, he's kind of like fellow Puerto Rican Edwin Rosario. And like Rosario, he's got a nice offensive arsenal but not a lot of sophistication as a boxer.
Somebody who's a real slick operator, with some lateral movement and ring savvy; who knows how to pop in and out with a two or three-punch combination, is going to come along and beat him - maybe even embarrass him.
Paul Malignaggi has that kind of style. He's quick, knows how to put his punches together, and moves around pretty good in the ring. But there are a couple of problems I see that might be insurmountable for him.
For one thing, as weak as Cotto's chin might be, I'm not sure Malignaggi's going to be able to hit him hard enough to get his respect. To begin with, he only has five KO wins on his record. Also, it's almost a done deal that he will break a hand here, because that's just what happens when Malignaggi fights. He'll go in conscious of that, and if it eventually happens, that will further affect his punching power. Either way, it looms unlikely he'll hit hard enough to keep Cotto off of him.
Secondly, even though he has only five fewer pro bouts than his opponent, Malignaggi is not ready for a fight like this. he's been brought along pretty carefully, and opponents like Donald Camarena, Jeremy Yelton, Ramiro Cano and Paul Delgado haven't prepared him for this. Because of his hand problems, the "Magic Man" knows his fighting days are numbered, and I have the distinct feeling that he - and the people around him - are in this for the payday. If they get lucky against Cotto - which is not impossible - that's a bonus.
But I'm sure even the price is inviting. If you can't back Cotto up, or befuddle him in some way, you're going to succumb to his attack, which includes one of the better double left hooks we have seen in the industry. Malignaggi has neither the power nor the experience to be able to keep this up over the course of a 12-round fight. Somewhere along the way, Cotto will catch up to him. and he will end it.
The play on Cotto to win isn't bad but doesn't exactly offer appetizing value (-450, or laying 9/2, is the best price we've seen out there so far), but I'd rather go with the "Under 10.5 rounds" play at a place like PinnacleSports.com, for example, in which you only have to lay -102 (virtually even money).
