I’ve always felt from the day this fight was announced that Terence Crawford is not in over his head with “Canelo” Alvarez because of size. He’s the taller, longer, and more agile fighter. He just hasn’t fought at as high a weight as Canelo has. But because Canelo used to fight at 154lbs I don’t view this an insurmountable task for Crawford.
However, there a few things that Crawford has to do to get the win. Initially, I thought that Crawford had to fight the same fight he fought against Viktor Postol. Everyone raves about his performance against Errol Spence, and rightfully so. But if you watch his fight against Postol, what you saw was a sublime boxing exhibition. Crawford boxed a beautiful fight and constantly punched on the move, which didn’t allow Postol sustainable success. Most boxers move, stop, and then punch. But in this fight, Crawford took something from his power shots and punched on the move and really frustrated Postol. He could fight that type of fight and win. I also understand that that was several years ago and several weight classes below.
Great fighters subtly evolve in front of our eyes. Crawford is more of a knockout-thirsty fighter now than he was back then. Once he moved up from 140lbs to 147lbs, no one was able to go the distance with him. So we may see that Crawford in spots, but I doubt we’ll see the guy that fought Postol for the entire fight.
Crawford has to pester Canelo consistently, early, and make Canelo pick up his feet. It doesn’t matter if Crawford is going backwards or forwards. He just needs to consistently bother Canelo with his presence. This may sound counter productive, but I believe Crawford has to force Canelo to throw more than one punch in exchanges. Canelo conserves energy by throwing one or two big punches these days.
Because of Crawford’s 74-inch reach, there is a distance where Crawford can hit Canelo and Canelo cannot hit Crawford. In the early rounds, where Canelo is very dynamic. Crawford needs to make Canelo work for his success while avoiding big shots. Especially Canelo’s lead right hand and liver hook. I believe Canelo’s left hook to the body is his best punch and southpaws lead with their liver; Crawford has to avoid being worn down with this punch. Especially early.
Crawford also has to get to Canelo’s body. No one ever goes to Canelo’s body consistently. Even Gennady Golovkin, who is a great body puncher, never had sustained success to Canelo’s body. Crawford is the best counter-body-puncher I have seen since Mike McCallum. Often, the announcers miss Crawford’s counter body punching. They act as if he suddenly hit a switch to score his usual mid-to-late round stoppage. But often, the stoppage was being set up by body punches rounds before the actual KO was scored. The earlier Crawford can get to Canelo’s body the better it will be for Crawford down the stretch. Crawford doesn’t have to dominate the early rounds; he just has to break even and make Canelo work, mentally and physically.
Crawford’s usual adjustment is going from orthodox to southpaw. But in his past fight, against Madrimov, he was hit with several lead right hands while in the southpaw stance. He must defend that shot better. If I saw it, I’m sure Eddy Reynoso did. Canelo is undefeated against southpaws. So Crawford may need another adjustment. That remains to be seen. But again – he has to defend the lead right hand better from the southpaw stance.
If Crawford breaks even over the first six rounds, and he makes Canelo work early for his success, and he can establish a body attack – especially counters to the body which really debilitate a fighter – the fight is there for Crawford to take down the stretch. I also believe he can win the fight by attacking, as well as playing cat and mouse.
One thing to look for late is Canelo going to the ropes. Oftentimes Canelo’s opponents assume he’s setting a trap, and they don’t take advantage of it. But Bud Crawford’s instincts are so good he should be able to tell the difference. He can’t overthink those moments because it’s Canelo. He has to be his normal instinctive self. If all these things come together, “Bud” Crawford can not only win, but win by late stoppage.
