by Cliff Rold

Hardcore fight followers and pouting Gennady Golovkin fans tried to downplay the fight when it was announced. They might turn out to be right. Saturday night might turn out to be a superstar beating up a super name.

We won’t know until we see them both in the ring. What we do know, and what should have been obvious from jump, is this is a big fight. The crowd at the weigh-in didn’t care about social media catcalls. The packed house on Saturday night won’t either. They’re in the house for an event. If a fight breaks out between the two biggest active names in Mexico all for the better.

Sometimes the focus on what isn’t happening in boxing can detract from what is. This is a fight fans have talked about for years and it’s happening. Did it need to happen now?

Ask again Sunday. 


 
Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Saul Alvarez
Age: 26
Title: Lineal/Ring World Middleweight (2015-Present, 1 Defense); WBO Jr. Middleweight (2016-Present, 0 Defenses); no title at stake this weekend
Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); WBA/Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013); WBC Middleweight (2015-16, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’9
Weight: 164 lbs.
Hails from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
Record: 48-1-1, 34 KO?
Record in Major Title Fights: 10-1, 6 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: Miguel Vazquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12; Amir Khan KO6; Liam Smith KO9

Vs.

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Age: 31
Title: None
Previous Titles: WBC Middleweight (2011-12, 3 Defenses)
Height: 6’1
Weight: 164 lbs.
?Hails from: Culiacan, Sinaloa, Mexico
Record: 50-2-1, 32 KO, 1 KOBY
Rankings: Unrated
Record in Major Title Fights: 4-1, 2 KO
Current/Former World Champions Faced: Carlos Molina D6, MD6; Sebastian Zbik MD12; Andy Lee TKO7; Sergio Martinez L12

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Alvarez B; Chavez B-
Pre-Fight: Power – Alvarez B+; Chavez B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Alvarez B; Chavez C-
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Alvarez A-; Chavez B-

The last time Chavez was in a genuinely big fight, two things happened. For 11 rounds and change, he looked every bit the carnival act many felt he’d been over the years. The pre-fight HBO infomercials featured a fighter who looked like he didn’t want to train. Spoiled and underachieving, he couldn’t be bothered to get up for the biggest night of his fistic life. That was the first thing that happened.

The second thing that happened is he almost won anyways.

Martinez-Chavez had such a memorable final round that many forget how tedious everything that came before it was. Those memories were forged because the kid can be more than a carnival act. He’s not Butterbean 2.0. Chavez has heavy hands and a sturdy chin. He’s since suffered his first stoppage loss but it came at the hands of a serious light heavyweight in Andrzej Fonfara.

Both of those assets could have even the hardest of hardcore fans on the edge of their seat Saturday. Much depends on how Chavez comes into the ring. The catchweight of 165 (beaten by one pound) for this fight is the lowest he’s been since he weighed 158 for the Martinez fight in 2012. He’s been around the super middleweight limit or well into light heavyweight in every fight since. He made weight okay but how will he rehydrate?

If, as normal, he blows up into the 180s this could be very interesting. If he doesn’t put on much weight, it could indicate he fried himself just to get to the scale. A fresh Chavez, coming off what sounds like a dedicated camp, would have a chance.

He’s taller and longer than Alvarez and, in the ring, he could be considerably bigger too. Alvarez has assets to offset those attributes. Alvarez is the quicker man and he’s certainly more skilled. Alvarez has developed underrated head movement, jabs well, and has heavy hands himself. If he gets to the target first, consistently, Chavez might not have the chances he needs to land and get into the fight. Of the two, Chavez is far more hittable and Alvarez isn’t going to struggle to find him.

Alvarez also has more experience against quality opponents. Much has been made of the slow rolling of a showdown with Golovkin but this isn’t a fighter who has typically shied away from challenges. Lara, Trout, Cotto, and Mayweather were all risky, tough fights.

However, Alvarez’s performances in those fights suggest he might not be quite as good as he is popular. Alvarez lost to Mayweather as wide as Chavez did to Martinez, minus a couple of minutes, and Alvarez was actually giving his best for more of the fight. There are plenty who would argue with the decisions in both the Lara and Trout fights.

The bigger gap is Chavez’s level of underperformance against foes well below that level. Chavez struggled with Zbik and probably should have lost his first fight with Brian Vera. Chavez is one of those fighters who can have a night like Andy Lee where it looks like there is real substance but more often than not he seems to do just enough to get by. Alvarez is a fighter who has worked on his craft and improved dramatically from where he started. There has never been any doubt about his professionalism.

Betting on Chavez here, to give a great fight all night much less win, is betting that he can put it all together after a career that says he doesn’t want it that bad. Saturday, it won’t be enough to be bigger and be able to take a good shot. He has to be willing to dig deep and make Alvarez hurt every chance he gets.  

The Pick

While the thinking here is this is going to be a much more entertaining fight than the naysayers predicted at announcement, it’s difficult to pull the trigger on a Chavez upset. Too many things have to go right. What if the fight is close? Could Alvarez’s public feuding with some of the powers that be in boxing be tempting fate on the eve of a fight where he may have to go the distance? That’s if the fight is close. Alvarez may not let it get that close. He looked the much healthier man on the scale and, size aside, he’s just the better fighter. He boxes better, works harder, and has done more to develop his skills. Chavez hasn’t been in with a true world-class fighter in a while and the last time he was, he got stopped. Chavez will make for some intense moments but they likely won’t be enough to win. The pick is Alvarez to win a decision.

Report Card and Staff Picks 2017: 11-7

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com