By Rick Reeno (Photo By Tom Casino)
The young career of IBF super middleweight champion Jeff Lacy (19-0, 15 KOs) hangs in balance when he defends his title against IBO super middleweight champion Robin Reid (38-4-1, 27 KOs) Saturday night at the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa, Fla.
Lacy, the first 2000 Olympian to win a world title, is going to face his toughest test to date.
A unification match with WBO super middleweight champion Joe Calzaghe is the prize for Lacy should he win his bout against Reid. The bout is said to be more or less a done deal should Lacy get past Reid.
Reid has never been stopped in his entire career and has excellent counterpunching skills. Two out of the four decision losses suffered by Reid are in heavy dispute. Most fans felt that Reid was robbed in his fight with undefeated Joe Calzaghe and was also on the end of a bad decision against the now retired Sven Ottke.
The fact that Reid has fought the best fighters and brought them to the brink of defeat is enough evidence to let us know that this bout will not be the usual Lacy blowout. Reid has won 12 out of his last 13 bouts, including a one-sided win over the always tough Brian Magee.
Reid has a very tough chin, which means Lacy may not be able to stop him. Lacy is used to blowing out his opponents, but has yet to face an iron-chined challenger with the boxing skills of Reid. The fight will make or break Lacy's career and will give all of us a clear indication on how far he will actually go based on his performance.
Reid will have to use all of his counterpunching skills and defense early on in the fight as Lacy rushes his opponents like a bull once he hears the sound of the opening bell. Should Reid survive the onslaught, Lacy is in for a long night. We have yet to see Lacy get tired down the stretch, but Reid's strategy will be to test the durability of Lacy's stamina.
Let's not forget that Reid has some pop in his punches as well. Lacy was momentarily hurt in an previous bout with Syd Vanderpool and Reid is a much harder puncher then Vanderpool. Lacy tends to throw wide punches in bunches, leaving himself open for big counters. Reid could very well be the best counterpuncher in the division, so Lacy must fight smart. He cannot recklessly leave himself open to counters when he flurries with power punches.
This is likely Reid's last shot at a major world championship. If Reid falls in the fight, he might very well call it career, depending on his overall performance. Given the scenario for Reid, he will be in the best shape of his career and ready to fight the best fight of his entire career.
The outlined gameplan that I foresee in this bout is Lacy rushing Reid early with his usual assortment of bombs. Reid will fend off most of the big punches to outbox and likely grab a few of the first six rounds.
The difference in the fight will be the second half of the fight. The constant pressure that Lacy puts on his opponents will wear Reid down as the fight heads into deep water.
I don't see Reid being able to get around the pressure of Lacy down the stretch. However, should Lacy get reckless, the entire tide of the fight can change on one huge counter from Reid.
Don't look for Lacy to make any crucial mistakes due to the Calzaghe fight hanging over his head. This is Lacy's fight to lose if he is reckless. Both fighters are usually ready to go the distance so stamina should not be a problem for either man.
My gut can't go against Lacy in this fight, he should perform as most expect and pull out a close decision to set up the unification showdown with Calzaghe in the last quarter of the year.
