By Jake Donovan

They each own a win over the other, and are in desperate need for a big win to have a fighting chance for at least one more big payday.

The friendly rivals collide tonight in hopes of breaking their 1-1 tie, as their third fight headlines at 1STBank Center in Broomfield, Colorado. The bout serves as the headliner for the 2015 season premiere of Boxing After Dark on HBO.

Both fighters were responsible for dealing the other their first career loss. Rios prevailed via 7th round stoppage in their terrific Oct. ’12 war at Home Depot Center (now known as StubHub Center) in Carson, California. The bout was universally hailed as high among the very best fights of the year, even garnering 2012 Fight of the Year honors in some circles.

The rematch wasn’t quite as high on the chart of epic fights, but was still chockfull of thrills and entertainment. By night’s end, it was Alvarado who figured out a way to turn a fight into a boxing match, relying on his skills more so than his killer instinct to take a well-earned decision in their March ’13 clash in Las Vegas to end Rios’ days as an unbeaten fighter.

Neither has looked their best since their two-fight set.

In fact, Alvarado (34-3, 23KOs) hasn’t won since their rematch, having dropped two straight. The fighting pride of Denver (or at least its outskirts) was granted a homecoming in his first fight post-Rios, facing Ruslan Provodnikov in the very same venue as tonight’s rubber match. Their Oct. ’13 war was one to remember, but ultimately became a tale of two fights. Alvarado was up early before hitting a wall, as Provodnikov came on late and forced him to wilt after 10 brutal rounds.

A ring return seven months later saw Alvarado rise in weight for a crack at the legendary Juan Manuel Marquez. While Alvarado dropped a wide decision, he still managed to leave his mark, rising from the canvas to score a knockdown of his own in their welterweight bout last May.

Rios (32-2-1, 23KOs) has also fought twice since their rematch, producing mixed results. A Nov. ’13 points loss to Manny Pacquiao in Macau, China was doubly damaging to his career. Not only did the Oxnard (Calif.)-based bruiser lose nearly every round, but was also popped for a banned substance in his system during post-fight random drug testing.

A joke of a suspension followed, with Rios returning to the ring last August – probably around the time of the year he would’ve fought anyway, given the available opportunities.

Many pegged his August 2 showdown with Diego Chaves as one that would serve as a Fight of the Year candidate. Everything about the fight sailed in the exact opposite direction, beginning with Chaves’ struggles to secure a travel visa due to a backlogged system, nearly postponing the fight. The issue was resolved in time for the Argentine and his team to make it to Vegas just three days before fight night.

By the time the two met in the ring, it didn’t take long for matters to implode. A foul fest ensued, with referee Vic Drakulich – scorned for his inability to maintain order – eventually tossing Chaves in the ninth round of an ultimately forgettable evening.

For Rios, it simply meant a return to the win column, breaking a two-fight losing streak and this providing at least a little bit of momentum as he hits the road for tonight’s bout.

While Alvarado fights at (near) home, it doesn’t necessarily provide an advantage. As mentioned, his last fight in this venue resulted in a vicious stoppage loss. His knack for landing on the wrong side of the law resurfaced earlier this month, when the former 140 lb. titlist was pulled over and arrested on a gun charge when a loaded weapon was found in a car in which he was riding. The fight goes on, and the 34-year old insists the matter will be once again taken into consideration after his piece of business in the ring tonight.

So who will come out on top in the third – though perhaps not necessarily final - chapter?

Read on to see how the staff at Boxingscene.com believes the action will play out.
 
BOXINGSCENE.COM STAFF PREDICTIONS: MIKE ALVARADO vs. BRANDON RIOS, PART III
 
Ryan Burton (Rios TKO11): “Alvarado's late night/early morning arrest raises eyebrows to how hard he is actually training. Both fighters have been through wars but Rios is younger and fresher and I look for him to get a late stoppage.”

Michael Coppinger (Rios KO): “Rios stops Alvarado and wins the trilogy in another brutal fight. Both guys are close to shopworn at this point, but Rios seems to have more left. Rios had a fun fight against Diego Chaves last summer, while Alvarado took a one-sided beating from Juan Manuel Marquez.”

Jake Donovan (Alvarado UD): “I no longer know what to think of this fight, so I'll just stick with my gut instinct on this one. Both are worse for the wear these days. Ironically, Alvarado enters into a career-bailout fight having been bailed out of jail in order to keep the fight alive. It's perhaps a big IF in stating that Alvarado should once again prevail if he can properly put the distractions aside for 12 rounds or less on fight night (the run-in(s) with the law, getting caught up in fighting close to home, etc.), but I really don't like what I see in the welterweight version of Rios. Look for Alvarado to brawl enough to keep Rios honest, but box enough to once again win comfortably on the scorecards.”

Lyle Fitzsimmons (Rios UD): “To a certain extent, both men are what they are. Alvarado is a gritty guy with some boxing skill, while Rios is a guy who'll apply pressure until the point where he's either out-skilled, beaten senseless or victorious. But even though Alvarado was able to mix in some technique in their second fight it wasn't as if he was a one-sided winner. Rios closes that gap here.”
   
Steve Kim (Rios late KO): “I like Rios via late KO, I think as faded as he might be, he's in a better place than Alvarado.”

John MacDonald (Rios TKO9): “Alvarado showed in their second fight that he can outbox Rios in spells as well as standing toe-to-toe with him. However, since then Alvarado appears to be more shopworn as the accumulation of hard fights has caught up with him.”
 
Giancarlo Oquendo (Rios KO): “I think both come from big defeats in which they have taken a lot of punishment, Alvarado is the better boxer but do not have the endurance of "Bam Bam", I think that Rios should win this third fight by knockout, Alvarado has received a lot of punishment in his recent fights.”

Cliff Rold (Rios KO): “Neither man is on a roll, but Alvarado took brutal punishment in each of his last four fights, two of which were against Rios. The struggles endured by Rios following the loss to Alvarado in their rematch continued in tough fights with Manny Pacquiao (L-UD12) and Diego Chaves (W-DQ9), but they appeared less exacting. Add to that Alvarado’s recent outside troubles, and this looks like Rios ending their series inside the route.”

Francisco Salazar (Rios TKO11): “To say this fight is a do-or-die fight is an understatement. The winner stays relevant in boxing, while the loser might consider retirement. It would be something if this fight lives up to the first two bouts. Alvarado has dealt with that gun charge from a few weeks ago, but who knows his frame of mind. Rios is trying to build off of that disqualification win over Diego Chaves in August. I think Rios benefits from the “me against the world” mentality—and he has to, fighting in Alvarado’s backyard. The first few rounds will be explosive, but Rios slowly tilts momentum on his side before stopping him late.”
 
Reynaldo Sanchez (Rios TKO10): “Alvarado and Rios are both B-level fighters at the welterweight. Two fighters who only have strength and little technique, who are able to withstand and get more blows should be the winner, and as in that category seems that Rios is stronger he should be the winner.”

Alexey Sukachev (Rios MD): “It can turn into another chapter of a thriller just like it was in case of Marquez vs. Vazquez. But resource boundaries aren't limitless. The fight won't impress the way their pervious fight has done. Alvarado, more damaged of the two, will fight to the end but Rios power will be on display as Alvarado fades under fire. Still, Rios’ moderate finishing skills will not only prevent a stoppage but will also ensure a close call on the scorecards.”

Dominic Verdin (Rios KO4 or less): “Rios was on a two-fight losing streak until returning to the win column with a DQ over Diego Chaves. Alvarado has also lost two in a row; however it is Rios who looks to be the fresher of the two. Rios will end matters early and send Alvarado into retirement.”

Totals (12):
Brandon Rios – 11
Mike Alvarado - 1 lonely JakeAss

Jake Donovan is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene.com, as well as a member of Transnational Boxing Ratings Board and the Boxing Writers Association of America.