By Jake Donovan
A sequel to a Fight of the Year recipient. A matchup between two rising undefeated middleweight contenders. A pair of crossroad bouts in which the outcome is so crucial to winner and loser that there isn’t even a need to search for some bogus title to have at stake.
“Revenge: The Rematches” or “Unfinished Business” it may not be, but compared to what’s been offered in recent years, Golden Boy’s loaded pay-per-view card is as good as it gets these days.
The lingering question is whether we get it for just one night, or if it’s truly a sign of things to come.
Promotes have constantly teased fans with the belief that for their $50-55 investment into a given pay-per-view event, they will be rewarded with an enticing undercard, only to be let down every time.
Richard Schaefer, CEO and the mastermind behind Golden Boy Promotions and exclusive promoter of this weekend’s telecast, even once went on record to declare pay-per-view preliminary bouts as disposable airtime when the main event is big enough.
As unpopular of a statement as it was, it actually turned out to be the truth. A lot of grumbling came of the supporting cast for the May 2007 “The World Awaits” PPV event that prompted the comment, yet the intrigue that surrounded the main event between Floyd Mayweather and Oscar de la Hoya was more than enough to carry the show on its own, to the tune of becoming the highest grossing boxing event of all-time.
Some three years later, Schaefer is now on record in taking a genuine interest in giving the fans what they want – a reason to tune in during the two hours preceding the top bill.
The result is a true four-fight pay-per-view event, headlined by a rematch to 2009’s Fight of the Year as Juan Manuel Marquez defends his lineal lightweight championship against Juan Diaz at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas (Saturday, HBO PPV, 9PM ET/6PM PT).
It’s debatable as to whether or not a Marquez-Diaz rematch would’ve been enough to carry a pay-per-view event on its own. Debatable only when you factor in the overall investment made into the card.
With the type of throwaway undercard that has been offered far too often for much of the 21st century, expectations on the event buy rate aren’t quite as high. The more you invest into the card, the greater return you expect, in fact demand.
This weekend’s show carries a price tag of around $4 million, a figure on which Schaefer made a point to emphasize in hoping that fans literally put their own money where their collective mouths are and tune in for this event.
A successful enough turnout could lead to a trend of four similarly intriguing bouts on one pay-per-view telecast – or a return to the way things once were. The break-even point for this show was never specified, although 200,000 units sold at $50 a pop ($60 for those ordering in HD) seems to be the ball park figure to cover payroll and expenses.
That’s not to say it’s the number with which Schaefer will be satisfied, or motivated to stack future pay-per-view events. In fact, his own unofficial belief (hope?) is that the true four-fight telecast surpasses 300,000 buys.
It could be a bold prediction, considering that – when you remove Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao from the lineup – no other show has hit that number since Antonio Margarito’s 11th round stoppage win over Miguel Cotto in July 2008.
Margarito-Cotto was a big enough event on its own thanks to the drawing power of Cotto, then viewed as the best active welterweight in the world and coming into his own as a major gate attraction. That, coupled with the pick-‘em nature of the fight, was more than enough to draw in the pay-per-view audience, even with an undercard that wasn’t exactly exceptional on paper or in reality.
Marquez-Diaz II is being packaged as a pick-‘em fight, based on the first fight being relatively even at the time of the stoppage. The statement features elements of the truth, but is misleading in reality. The fight was even because Diaz sprinted out to an early lead before Marquez settled down and took over for good at the midway point, eventually blasting out his challenger early in the ninth round.
In other words, a great fight but with a conclusive ending. Not the greatest selling point for a pay-per-view headliner (unless both sides of the fight are huge box office attractions), but still believed to be strong enough when paired with a great supporting cast.
Any of the three preliminary bouts – Daniel Jacobs vs. Dmitry Pirog; Rocky Juarez vs. Jorge Linares; Joel Casamayor vs. Robert Guerrero – are strong enough to serve as televised co-features for any given premium cable telecast. Collectively, it’s that extra push you need if you were on the fence about otherwise spending money on a main event that’s solid but not a bona fide blockbuster.
Or that’s the theory, anyway.
Recent history shows mixed results on it being a working formula.
A July 2007 catchweight fight between Bernard Hopkins and Winky Wright was believed all along to result in an ugly, disinteresting affair, with the actual fight itself managing to fall below such paltry expectations. But those who tuned in to the telecast were treated to a glimpse into the future of then undefeated rising star Jorge Linares (who stopped former titlist Oscar Larios in 10 rounds) as well as a fantastic lightweight war between Michael Katsidis and Czar Amonsot.
Whether or not either fight had any bearing in fans buying a show that wasn’t otherwise appealing is certainly open to debate. But while the show was poorly attended, it still managed to surpass 300,000 units sold, putting the event well in the black.
On the flipside, a loaded pay-per-view telecast in September 2006 that comes closer to mirroring this weekend’s event didn’t quite run wild at the box office.
Marco Antonio Barrera was never the biggest draw on his own, and there was cause for concern that his rematch with Rocky Juarez wouldn’t exactly leave everyone rolling in dough. Juarez had never before headlined a pay-per-view telecast, nor had he truly established a following anywhere outside of his native Houston, and even there playing second fiddle to Juan Diaz.
Still, Barrera and Juarez were just four months removed from their 12-round shootout on HBO, resulting in a draw that was later announced a narrow split decision for Barrera. A close, debatable decision to a Fight of the Year contender – formula for success at the box office, right?
That’s the suggestion for this Saturday night, anyway.
But rather than leave anything to chance, Golden Boy put plenty of thought into the televised undercard, featuring two fights that could’ve been main events on any other show – Joan Guzman’s 12-round title-winning effort over Jorge Barrios, and Israel Vazquez’ off-the-canvas 10th round stoppage win over Jhonny Gonzalez in what was arguably the best U.S.-based fight of 2006.
Both undercard fights were must see on paper, and at least Vazquez-Gonzalez exceeded expectations.
What didn’t exceed expectations was the main event or the box office receipts. Barrera took a unanimous decision in a 12-round fight akin to watching paint dry, and the event itself only featured a modest crowd and a respectable but unspectacular tally of 165,000 pay-per-view buys.
How much weight is carried from the Fight of the Year honors received by Marquez and Diaz remains to be seen.
Marquez has been involved in two blockbuster pay-per-view events in recent years, though as the B-side on both occasions – his narrow points loss in his March 2008 rematch with Manny Pacquiao, and not-quite-as-debatable virtual shutout at the hands of a returning Floyd Mayweather last September.
On his own, he hasn’t proven to be as big of a draw, nor does it help that the Mayweather fight represents his last time in the ring, having been inactive for 10 months heading into this weekend. His last win was in fact the first fight with Diaz, in February 2009.
Diaz enters this weekend having lost three of his last five. Of the two fights he’s won since October 2007, one was his controversial points win over Paul Malignaggi last August in a fight that could’ve went either way but instead offered some of the most inept scoring in boxing history. The Houston native was handled in the rematch last December, his last fight to date.
In addition to entering this weekend with a loss serving as his last fight is the fact that Diaz has never headlined a pay-per-view, therefore offers no gauge as to how well he can draw.
The good news is that neither fighter has to draw very much on their own, as the push has been for the memory of last year’s unforgettable war to carry the promotion. In the event that it’s not enough, the argument that history doesn’t always repeat itself is countered the promise of being just as intrigued by the in-ring action at 9PM ET as you will be 2 ½ hours later.
For the eight fighters involved in this weekend’s telecast, winning is truly the most important thing, with nary a victory guaranteed for a single fighter on the show.
Equally as unpredictable is the success that will come from this weekend’s show. If the treat of four evenly matched fights still isn’t enough to fully persuade you to ante up, there’s always the threat of Saturday night being the last time for a long time in which a promoter attempts to respond to our demands.
Jake Donovan is the Managing Editor of Boxingscene.com and an award-winning member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Contact Jake at JakeNDaBox@gmail.com .
