By Cliff Rold (photo by Chris Farina/Top Tank)
There are three fights on Saturday night with varying levels of intrigue. John Duddy-Matt Vanda could create a title shot at Middleweight. Miguel Cotto-Michael Jennings should confirm or deny any doubts about Cotto in the wake of his first career loss. A WBO Welterweight belt will even be on the line.
Only one fight will have an immediate say in the kingship of a weight class.
It is the real World title fight on the show.
That the champion enters with a hint of tarnish makes the Ohio end of a New York City/Youngstown split feed all the more compelling. The champion has something to prove. Entering the ninth year of his career, the challenger may never get another chance like this one.
Let’s go to report card.
The Ledgers
Kelly Pavlik
Age: 26
Title: World Middleweight (Lineal/Ring/WBC/WBO)
Height: 6’2 1/2
Hails from: Youngstown, Ohio
Record: 34-1, 30
Record in Title Fights: 2-0, 2 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 2 (Bronco McKart, Jermain Taylor)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Bernard Hopkins)
Vs.
Marco Antonio Rubio
Age: 28
Title: None
BoxingScene Rating: #4 ( https://www.boxingscene.com/forums/view.php?pg=boxing-ratings )
Height: 6’1 ½
Hails from: Torreon, Coahuila de Zaragoza, Mexico
Record: 43-4-1, 37 KO
Record in Title Fights: 1st World Title shot
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated/No Contested: 2 (Jorge Vaca, Frankie Randall)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Kasim Ouma)
Battle Breakdown Grades
Speed: Pavlik B; Rubio B
Power: Pavlik B+; Rubio B
Defense: Pavlik B; Rubio C+
Intangibles: Pavlik B+; Rubio B
Live at 9:00 PM EST/6:00 PST, the card kicks off though it’s not certain who goes first. One might assume the two shows will bounce back and forth given the three spotlighted bouts. Whenever it starts, Pavlik-Rubio appears on paper to be the fight of the night.
While he isn’t a high profile fighter, Rubio is a deserving contender. He’s won nine in a row since back to back decision losses to Ouma and Zaurbek Baysangurov, the last of nine his most impressive victory. On the undercard of Pavlik’s non-title loss to Bernard Hopkins in October 2008, Rubio came from behind to outpoint Enrique Ornelas in a crowd-pleasing brawl.
That October night suggested some of the strengths and weaknesses Rubio brings to the ring. He can match Pavlik for sheer speed, though neither man is what anyone would call fast. Given their builds, Rubio might appear the smaller man but he’s nearly as tall as Pavlik so if he can get inside, his hooks won’t have far to travel. Where Rubio could find trouble is in getting inside; Pavlik’s arms are longer, shoulders wider. Rubio’s not the technician Hopkins is and against those other than proven all-time greats, Pavlik has shown capable of keeping any world class fighter pinned at the end of his long jab.
In terms of power, each has a high knockout rate but Pavlik has stopped a higher quality of opposition. There is nothing like Jermain Taylor or Edison Miranda on Rubio’s resume, though each man shares Jose Luis Zertuche and Rubio in seven stopped the rugged Zertuche a round earlier. Pavlik also has a range of shots. Rubio’s weapon is the left hook. Pavlik can pound with a long right but also has a sneaky hook and uppercut from the left side. Rubio promises to be in front of him, a benefit for the champion.
To the delight of the fans, both men will appear to be, and actually be getting, hit on Saturday night. The reason for the word ‘appear’ is that Pavlik often looks like he’s taking more shots than he is. In walking down Miranda, and after coming off the floor against Taylor the first time, the lanky arms and intelligent gloves of Pavlik deflected some of the best incoming fire. Rubio doesn’t block as well though as he picks up steam on offense he can force opponents punch output down and make defending easier. He’s been stopped twice, in the second round by Saul Roman early in his career and in lightning fashion by Kofi Jantuah in 2004. Pavlik doesn’t have the early snap of a Jantuah so a stoppage will likely have to come a few rounds into the bout.
Intangibles are what make this such an intriguing affair. Pavlik didn’t just lose to Hopkins; he lost every round. It is doubtful a loss to Hopkins would destroy his confidence but could it force him, fighting in front of his hometown, to overcompensate and get reckless? If so, Rubio can take advantage.
Rubio may be an underdog, but he’s not a stiff and one assumes he’ll show up ready to lay everything on the line. Could he become overwhelmed by the moment and open himself to power early? Maybe, but there are world titles and then there are WORLD TITLES. Fighters know the difference, even if they don’t always admit it, and a chance to knock off a Pavlik, the man who sits on the throne of Robinson, Greb, and Monzon, will be a motivator. Rubio showed grit and determination against Ornelas. He’s seen the films showing Pavlik, like him, capable of being sent to the floor. Both these men are real fighters, the blood and guts kind, and it should add up to a good show.
The Pick: It should add up to a good but still predictable show. Unless it’s a perfect piece of thunder, even an early power setback for a fired up Pavlik should be something he can shake off. Pavlik comes off the floor well. It’s doubtful he’ll even have to in this case. Pavlik doesn’t seem overwhelmed by big moments yet and while this bout is at home, the raucous crowds of Atlantic City in three of his last four bouts might just as well have been in Youngstown. Expect a fun fight while it lasts with Pavlik building momentum behind the jab early and Rubio walked down sometime around the eighth round.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
