By Cliff Rold
It’s what boxing fans wanted to see. After over two years as champion, Kelly Pavlik will finally defend his title.
Oh, sure, Pavlik officially has three defenses under his belt. He sent mandatory challengers Gary Lockett and Marco Antonio Rubio packing. He introduced former “Contender” contestant Miguel Espino to the reality of elite competition. Those men were, by designation, challengers.
They weren’t really threats to challenge. The challenges for Pavlik since September 2007, or the beginning of his title reign, have come without the Middleweight honors on the line. He was pushed but ultimately pushed through in a non-title rematch with the man from whom he wrested the crown, Jermain Taylor. He was less successful in a try at former Middleweight and Light Heavyweight king Bernard Hopkins at a 170 lb. catchweight, losing almost every round.
Middleweight isn’t the deepest pool these days. Rubio could be considered a legitimate top ten opponent before and since his loss to Pavlik, a fact which doesn’t speak highly of the total field at 160 lbs. Not much isn’t the same as nothing.
Over the last year or so a real threat emerged, a volume punching wisp successfully competing across three weight classes. He and Pavlik signed to fight more than once, only for a staph infection on the right (power) hand of Pavlik to throw the plans awry. Kelly Pavlik-Paul Williams was the challenge.
When their fight did not take a place, Williams went with another foe, scraping to a decision win in one of 2009’s best fights. Suddenly, Pavlik had two threats worth getting excited about.
Pavlik isn’t fighting Williams this weekend. He’s fighting the other one, Sergio Martinez. The fans win.
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Kelly Pavlik
Age: 28
Current Title(s): Lineal/Ring/WBC/WBO Middleweight (2007-Present, 3 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 6’2 ½
Weight: 159.5 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 162.2 lbs.
Hails from: Youngstown, Ohio
Record: 36-1, 32 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 4-0, 4 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 2 (Bronco McKart, Jermain Taylor)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Bernard Hopkins)
Vs.
Sergio Martinez
Age: 35
Title: WBC Jr. Middleweight
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’11
Weight: 159.5 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 155.05 lbs.
Hails from: Madrid, Spain (born in Argentina)
Record: 44-1-2, 24 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #1 at Jr. Middleweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 1-0-1, 1 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 0
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat or Draw: 3 (Antonio Margarito, Kermit Cintron, Paul Williams)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Pavlik B; Martinez A
Pre-Fight: Power – Pavlik B+; Martinez B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Pavlik B-; Martinez B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Pavlik B+; Martinez A
Team Pavlik has to be commended for taking this with a potentially larger Williams payday still out there because, style-wise, it’s a brute. Williams, win or lose, would make for a war. Martinez has the tools to make this is a tactical nightmare. A southpaw with excellent head movement and feet, Martinez will force the slower Pavlik to rely on timing from the outset. Martinez is quick on the counter; Pavlik has to be prepared to set traps and counter over those attempts. Pavlik has shown himself to be capable against men who carry athletic speed advantages, and with an old standard: he throws straight punches from distance, short punches in close.
That those punches carry real weight makes Pavlik live even if he falls behind. Pavlik’s right hand gets a lot of attention but his left jab sets it all up with authority. His left is also nasty to the ribs and, if he’s close, it can also be a jarring hook. In his lone loss to Hopkins, and in the rematch with Taylor, Pavlik was taxed in trying to be consistent with the jab and because of that little else was happening. Against Taylor, sheer activity overcame a somewhat frozen opponent but with Hopkins nothing worked.
Martinez isn’t as refined as Hopkins, or as big. He’s quicker though and will move more. Whether that’s good remains to be seen. Martinez’s movement, against Williams, forced the volume puncher to reset constantly. Against Pavlik, if he’s not able to land hard on the champion, it could backfire as Pavlik slowly chokes the ring off over the course of the fight.
In terms of physical threat to Pavlik, Martinez has shown he can be hurtful despite an average stoppage rate, having dropped Williams and Kermit Cintron hard. Pavlik is different if, for nothing else, his sheer size. Williams was clearly much taller than Martinez; Pavlik will share the same but is also bigger and size really could matter.
Martinez, a pro since 1997, has typically been well below the Jr. Middleweight limit of 154 lbs. and spent many years at Welterweight. He’s durable (only one stoppage loss, that to former Welterweight titlist Antonio Margarito in 2000) but he’s never been in with anyone who has Pavlik’s heavy hands. Pavlik could easily be one or two weight classes higher and be in shape. In a fight where it’s generally accepted that Martinez is going to need his legs to win, Pavlik can land a few at a time and multiply over twelve rounds.
Age could matter as well. As sharp as Martinez has looked, he’s not only naturally smaller but also 35 years old and coming off a war. That’s only one intangible to the fight. There is also who the fighters are as men inside the ring.
Both have had and passed great character tests in their careers. Pavlik came off the floor to defeat Taylor the first time (and has come off the floor to win a few times pre-title as well). Against Hopkins, he could have quit but took his whoppin’ like a man. Martinez, after Paul Williams, can’t be questioned. Heart, tenacity, fire…it was all there. He’s waited a long time to get in front of the big audiences, making his age a potential advantage as much as discussed potential disadvantage.
Martinez knows that he doesn’t have forever. He’ll have a sense of urgency. Does Pavlik’s urgency to remain champion trump Martinez’s urgency to embrace this opportunity?
The Pick
Martinez looked so good against Williams, looked so good in all of his recent U.S. appearances, that he makes for a strong thinking man’s pick this weekend. It can’t be ignored that a degree of underrating is at play as well. Pavlik has been largely out of sight; it happens. However, he hasn’t been entirely out of the ring and that will matter.
Pavlik’s jab won’t land much in the early going but it’s so long that it can get him close enough to whip in his sneaky left to the body. As the rounds wear on, Pavlik won’t attack with a Williams-like rate but the harsher impact will wear on the 35 year old’s legs. When that happens, Pavlik’s right hand to the head will begin to land and Martinez is in trouble.
Look for the challenger to build an early lead, look for Pavlik to struggle to find a rhythm in the first half of the fight, and then look for Pavlik’s pressure to grind Martinez down en route to a late stoppage win.
That HBO main event isn’t all that’s on tap this weekend. Part of a split telecast, the broadcast will open from the Bell Center in Montreal, Quebec, Canada with arguably the best Super Middleweight in the world on tap.
His opponent, so far, has lost only to the best, but lost decisively. The defending titlist is a heavy favorite but it’s enough fun to go a quick extra report card.
The Ledgers
Lucian Bute
Age: 30
Title: IBF Super Middleweight (2007-Present, 4 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 6’2
Weight: 167.2 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 167.35 lbs.
Hails from: Galati, Romania (Resides in Montreal, Quebec)
Record: 25-0, 20 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #1
Record in Major Title Fights: 5-0, 4 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 3 (Dingaan Thobela, Alejandro Berrio, William Joppy)
Vs.
Edison Miranda
Age: 29
Title/Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’10
Weight: 167 lbs.
Average Weight - Five Most Recent Fights: 170.3 lbs.
Hails from: Carolina, Puerto Rico (Born in Colombia)
Record: 33-4, 29 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 0-1
BoxingScene Rank: Unrated at 168 lbs.
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 0
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 3 (Arthur Abraham, Kelly Pavlik, Andre Ward)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Bute A-; Miranda B
Pre-Fight: Power – Bute A-; Miranda A
Pre-Fight: Defense – Bute B+; Miranda C-
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Bute A; Miranda B
The Pick
Bute is the logical pick here but something gnawing in the gut says Miranda, a better fighter than he gets credit for, is due. The gnawing could always be indigestion though.
Miranda’s losses have come to fighters superior to anyone Bute has faced and he didn’t lay down in any of them; the stoppage defeats to Pavlik and Abraham were hard earned by those men. He still lost and, while acknowledging his chances this weekend, the smart pick is that he loses here too.
Bute is the favorite for a reason, so far looking to be in or near the same class as the men who have defeated Miranda. The miles the Colombian received in those battles will be a factor. If he catches Bute, Bute can go to sleep. Catching him won’t be easy and Bute should be even more confident after the blowout of Librado Andrade in their rematch last year.
Look for the Romanian Bute to survive a sheer rush of aggression, boxing safely until lowering the boom sometime in the second half of the fight.
The HBO broadcast begins in the U.S. at 10 PM EST/7 PM PST.
Report Card Picks 2010: 11-2
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
