The junior middleweight division has been the strongest in the world for some time now, and by the end of 2025 we’ll know even more about how good it is and which of its fighters are the very best.
Vergil Ortiz Jnr defends the WBC interim title against Erickson Lubin on November 8 in what represents a high-level crossroads match-up and therefore a chance not only to keep judging Ortiz Jnr’s ascent, but how much Lubin has left. In his previous two fights – the victories over Serhii Bohachuk and Israil Madrimov – Ortiz Jnr justified the increasing interest in his career. I’d argue he’s already fought more dangerous opponents than Gervonta “Tank” Davis has ever.
Lubin has a lot of talent and athletic ability; he hasn’t quite fulfilled his potential but he’s continued to pose a threat to the world’s very best at 154lbs. At 29 it’s far too early to say that he’s past his peak despite him long competing at a high level, and he’s also prioritised fighting Ortiz Jnr over Bakhram Murtazaliev. Both Lubin and Ortiz Jnr are consistently in entertaining fights – it seems unthinkable they won’t be entertaining again.
Sebastian Fundora is on course to defend the full title against Keith Thurman in another appealing fight. In Fundora’s position, a high-profile opponent like Thurman – not unlike Tim Tszyu in his previous title defence – is at the very least capable of helping him build his reputation, and potentially capable of providing him with a worthwhile test.
Thurman, like Lubin, has been around for a long time, and as a world champion at the highest level. Unlike Lubin, however, he’s unproven at 154lbs, which makes this a great opportunity for him to enhance the legacy he built by being at the top of the welterweight division for as long as he was. For a period, until the emergence of Terence Crawford and Errol Spence at 147lbs, he was the best welterweight in the world, and he was also exciting. I’m interested to see whether, at 36, he slows down his previous fast pace and compensates by fighting with more subtlety.
In the rematch with Tszyu, even with Tszyu showing signs of decline, Fundora showed signs of evolving as a fighter. His performance was regardless impressive – the truer test of that evolution will come against Thurman and others, not Tszyu.
Jaron Ennis, in his past fight – the very good stoppage of Eimantas Stanionis in April – proved himself the world’s best welterweight and will next fight the Angolan Uisma Lima in his first contest at junior middleweight on October 11. There was a time he deserved sympathy on account of the big fights eluding him, but word has grown that he’s become the one turning down the big fights, which perhaps puts him under pressure to make a statement.
In his first fight at a higher weight he doesn’t deserve to be criticised for having a lower-profile opponent, and it’s positive he’s staying active, but the time will very soon come when he has to be matched more dangerously. He was a big welterweight who has long looked suiting to moving up, but he’s joined such a competitive landscape at 154lbs that his promise and frame alone will not prove enough.
Murtazaliev – whose promoters and management have failed to deliver him a single fight since the victory over Tszyu in October 2024 – has been ordered by the IBF to defend his title against Josh Kelly. Murtazaliev’s been the subject of growing curiosity since that victory.
Kelly’s natural ability isn’t in question, but his psychological strength has been. When he’s previously been pushed – such as against David Avanesyan – he’s come up short. He’s demonstrated flair but not always the most solid of fundamentals when he’s been pushed, and it’s fundamentals fighters often need to rely on when they’re under pressure.
For all that Kelly’s spoken about this fight with confidence, he doesn’t have a choice but to take it because he’s not going to get another opportunity to become a world champion. Victory would undo all of the mistakes of the past in one night. But Murtazaliev’s capable of being an unforgiving opponent for him if those fundamentals haven’t sufficiently improved.
Ortiz Jnr has to be the favourite against Lubin, and he’s already proven at a high level, but Lubin will show us even more about how good a fighter Ortiz Jnr really is.
Fundora’s the favourite against Thurman, but Thurman remains a mystery at the top at 154lbs. Ennis is so strong a favourite against Lima that the more relevant question is how impressively he will win that night, but while Murtazaliev is also a strong favourite against Kelly, if Kelly finally lives up to his promise that could change.
Murtazaliev, Ortiz Jnr and Bohachuk are, in no particular order, to my mind the world’s three best junior middleweights. Fundora, Madrimov, Ennis and Xander Zayas are narrowly behind them but strengthen the picture overall.
Also to my mind, justice was served when Bohachuk was reinstated as the number one in the WBC’s ratings, over Ennis, following his appeal. True justice would be if the WBC – who typically play the popularity game – had the conviction to order an eliminator between them.
