By Cliff Rold

Paul Williams like to claim he’d still be willing to fight the best Welterweights.  Having once been among the leaders at 147 lbs., and bouncing between 154 and 160 lbs. for more than a year, it adds to his allure as the game’s latest ‘most avoided’ or ‘most dangerous’ man. 

It’s great public relations. 

Every time Williams, or his camp, talks about Williams at Welterweight versus Manny Pacquiao or Floyd Mayweather, it’s an easy headline…but follow the bouncing scale.

At 154, or Jr. Middleweight, this bout could have been contested for Sergio Martinez’s belt.  It’s happening at Middleweight, the third bout in the division among Williams last four.  This was supposed to be the weekend Williams challenged World Middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (35-1, 31 KO) for the lineal crown in the division.  Pavlik’s slow healing from a staph infection in his hand killed that fight for now.

Williams staying at Middleweight says it is still the fight he has on his mind.  In a battle of crafty, skilled southpaws, will Williams be thinking about the wrong fight on Saturday?

Let’s go to the report card. 

The Ledgers

Paul Williams
Age: 28
Title: None
Previous Titles: WBO Welterweight (2007-08; 08); WBO Jr. Middleweight (interim, 2008-09)
Height: 6’1
Weight: 157 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 152 lbs.
Hails from: Augusta, Georgia
Record: 37-1, 27 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #1 at Jr. Middleweight; #2 at Middleweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 3-1, 2 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 5 (Sharmba Mitchell, Antonio Margarito, Carlos Quintana, Verno Phillips, Winky Wright)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Carlos Quintana)

Vs.

Sergio Martinez
Age: 34
Title: WBC Jr. Middleweight
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’11
Weight: 159 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 154.05 lbs.
Hails from: Madrid, Spain (born in Argentina)
Record: 44-1-2, 24 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #3 at Jr. Middleweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 2-0, 1 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 0
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat or Draw: 2 (Antonio Margarito, Kermit Cintron)

Pre-Fight Grades
Speed – Williams A; Martinez A
Power – Williams B; Martinez B
Defense – Williams B-; Martinez B+
Intangibles – Williams A; Martinez A

If Williams is at all looking past Martinez, he’ll be in for a long night.  It’s could be a long night even if he isn’t.  The Argentine has lost only once, in a seventh round Welterweight knockout versus Antonio Margarito in 2000.  Of the other blemishes on his record, one was a draw in his career infancy, the other a draw in his last fight.
And Martinez-Kermit Cintron was no draw.

Any readers ever heard the old phrase “have to score a knockout to get a draw?”  Well, Martinez appeared to do just that last February, dropping Cintron for the count in round seven only to be told the count was a referee’s ‘my bad.’  That bout, along with a rousing knockout of Alex Bunema on HBO last year, raised Martinez’s stock dramatically in the U.S.  He was such an exciting new presence it was almost easy to overlook his already being well into his 30s. 

What made Martinez stand out was exceptional speed of both hand and foot.  His jab gets there razor sharp and he backs it up with a nice left hand.  His athletic speed is probably the equal of Williams but his shorter arms, and height deficit, will mean he needs to upset Williams’ rhythm at every turn.  He’s quicker than the lone man who has pulled it off to date, Quintana, and has a slicker offensive arsenal.

The rhythm is hard to slow.  Williams, whose hands are already quick, makes them more so because of his Heavyweight reach and insane output.  The volume of offense he generates, with a steady jab popping off his stretched frame, is almost like a bizarre mix of Gumby and Henry Armstrong.   He has a way of throwing off everyone else’s rhythm as opponents seek not to be overwhelmed.  In his lone outing of 2009, Williams faced Wright off a long layoff.  Despite that, Wright didn’t look rusty or old; he just couldn’t keep pace and took a shellacking.

The man who set the pace probably wins Saturday because a shocking knockout isn’t likely.  Williams could probably grade higher for power but he sacrifices the leverage he could have in single huge shots in favor of landing eight blows.  Where he has scored knockouts in recent years, it has largely been against overmatched foes or an accumulation of shots with one exception (to be returned to).

Martinez’s power has shown improvement since 2003, with 13 of his career stoppages achieved in his last 17 fights.  Look closer and one sees most of those stops coming against less than marvelous fare.  He worked Bunema but Bunema had been stopped three times prior while Cintron hasn’t shown a remarkable chin.  Both Williams and Martinez hit hard enough to hurt but, luckily for viewers, not quite hard enough not to guarantee some quality rounds this weekend.

Defensively, Martinez carries the slight edge.  He uses his feet to avoid danger and knows when to slip shots.  Williams can have excellent head movement but is usually hittable.  He gets so focused on offense, and his opponents get caught on the back foot so readily, that he doesn’t always have to worry about the lethal shot which could end his night. 

To his aid, Williams has shown a world class beard and guts, enduring a late surge from Margarito in their 2007 contest and never wilting as Quintana continued to land in their first fight.  Of course, Quintana also proved much of Williams mettle.  He was coming on strong late in his lone defeat.  In the rematch, the rare bout where Williams decided to sit on his shots, the bout was over before three minutes passed.  Aside from his athletic gifts, Williams has shown the ability to come back better from a loss. 

Martinez would like to force him into a position to overcome defeat again.  Martinez’s chin has been dependable and an early career loss to Margarito is no shame.  Despite his ignominy over the last year, Margarito was one of the decade’s best Welterweights.  There is also something about the way Martinez is seizing opportunity.  He waited years for a chance to shine; he fights like it.  His ring character is little in doubt.

The Pick

Martinez’s chances to win are.

He’s a good fighter.  Williams is just a better one and, even with less years in the ring, the more experienced in terms of opposition.  Martinez will be a new foe but isn’t the type of challenge Williams hasn’t seen yet.  Williams is the type of challenge few fighters ever do, or want to, see.  Look for the Williams jab to be working well by the third.   After some testy opening rounds Williams will builds momentum and take over the contest.  By rounds eight and nine, there could be consideration of a corner stoppage.  It’s more likely Martinez finishes on his feet, stopped somewhere in the tenth round.

And then, no matter what anyone says, the road to Williams-Pavlik can begin to be traveled again in earnest.

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com