by Cliff Rold

Theory and practice. 

In the former, anyone within reason can win a given fight.  In the latter, only one can win and theory often doesn’t mean squat.  This weekend’s Light Heavyweight championship fight is a lot like that.  The match, featuring an exciting young champion in his prime and an ageless veteran who has made a career of defying the odds, is the sort that brings conviction only from the most faithful. 

For the rest, there are multiple, theoretical outcomes.  It’s easy to close one’s eyes and see Pascal being too quick, rising to the occasion in front of a partisan crowd.  It’s just as easy to see Hopkins countering Pascal silly, roughing him up inside, and pouring all his accumulated ring knowledge into one more milestone win.

We’ll need to see them in practice to find out.  For now, let’s go to the report card.

The Ledgers

Jean Pascal 

Age: 28
Titles: Lineal/Ring Magazine World Light Heavyweight Champion (2010-Present, 1st Defense); WBC Light Heavyweight (2009-Present, 3 Defenses)

Previous Titles: None

Height: 5’11

Weight: 174.1 lbs.

Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 173.05 lbs.

Hails from: Laval, Quebec, Canada (Born in Haiti)
Record: 26-1, 16 KO

Record in Major Title Fights: 4-1, 1 KO

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 3 (Adrian Diaconu, Silvio Branco, Chad Dawson)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Carl Froch)

Vs.

Bernard Hopkins

Age: 45
Current Title: None

Previous Titles: Ring/Lineal World Middleweight (2001-05, 6 Defenses); IBF Middleweight (1995-2005, 20 Defenses); WBC Middleweight (2001-05, 7 Defenses); Ring/WBA Middleweight (2001-05, 6 Defenses); WBO Middleweight (2004-05, 1 Defense); Ring Light Heavyweight (2006-08, 1 Defense)

Height: 6’1

Weight: 175 lbs.

Average Weight - Five Most Recent Fights:  174.6 lbs.
Hails from: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Record: 51-5-1, 32 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 22-4-1, 13 KO, 1 No Contest

BoxingScene Rank: #4
 at Light Heavyweight
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 13 (Lupe Aquino, John David Jackson, Glen Johnson, Simon Brown, Keith Holmes, Felix Trinidad, Carl Daniels, William Joppy, Oscar De La Hoya, Antonio Tarver, Winky Wright, Kelly Pavlik, Roy Jones)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 3 (Roy Jones, Jermain Taylor, Joe Calzaghe)

Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Pascal A; Hopkins B
Pre-Fight: Power – Pascal B+; Hopkins B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Pascal B-; Hopkins A
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Pascal A; Hopkins A

The key to Pascal beating Dawson earlier this year, besides an accidental head butt and cut stoppage at a perfect time, was Pascal’s edge in hand speed.  Dawson had seen some serious world-class foes but, in all those matches, he was the faster man.  Against Pascal, he was confronting a fighter who could get off, and land, first.  Dawson came on strong late but it made a difference.

Pascal’s speed advantage will be even more pronounced against Hopkins.  It’s fair to see this could be the largest athletic speed deficit Hopkins has faced, particularly relative to his age, since the first Roy Jones fight in 1993. 

Hopkins has come a long way since 1993. 

Pascal, whose bursts of offense can often be followed with lulls, won’t surprise Hopkins the way he did Dawson.  If he allows himself to be sucked in close where Hopkins is the master, his noticeable windedness in previous fights could see a young champion gasping for air by the championship rounds. 

Of course, Pascal gets winded because he goes so hard in his fights.  The contests with Froch, Diaconu, and often with Dawson, were the sort of fights that can make any man tired.  Pascal’s stamina is questioned by some; the Hopkins he gets will determine fatigue.  A Hopkins who does not throw often, who mauls a lot inside, could save Pascal’s legs for him, could allow the champion extra energy for late bursts.  Of course, Hopkins can also make Pascal miss in ways the Canadian favorite has never experienced.  The frustration could sap his resolve and take the body with it.

Pascal will need the bursts either way.  He’s not a consistent output guy, so he’s going to need to be eye catching at the right times.  He also has to be careful not to let Hopkins play mind games with him.  That means, for instance, that if Hopkins starts fouling, be prepared that when Pascal so much as touches him in a foul area, Hopkins may flop to the floor in search of an Oscar.  When he does, Hopkins will milk the rest period allowed and then charge out with a bevy of shots, when action resumes, attempting to steal the round.

This could be a chess match.  It could get excruciatingly ugly in spots.  It could also have moments of genuine excitement. 

It’s what one would expect when a legend, one that truly knows his craft and can still employ it, steps in with an athlete like Pascal.

What can the boxing world expect in the weekend’s other big fight?

Marco Huck

Age: 26
Title: WBO Cruiserweight (2009-Present, 4 Defenses)

Previous Titles: None
Height: 6’1 ½
Weight: 199.1 lbs. 

Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 198.1 lbs.

Hails from: Bielefeld, Germany (Born in Serbia)

Record: 30-1, 23 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #2 at Cruiserweight
Record in MajorTitle Fights: 5-1, 3 KO, 1 KOBY

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 1 (Victor Ramirez)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Steve Cunningham)

Vs.

Denis Lebedev 

Age: 31
Title/Previous Titles: None

Height: 5’11

Weight: 198.2 lbs.

Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 198.75 lbs.

Hails from: Chekhov, Russia

Record: 21-0, 16 KO

BoxingScene Rank: #5 at Cruiserweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 1st Title Fight
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 1 (Enzo Maccarinelli)

Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Huck B+; Lebedev B
Pre-Fight: Power – Huck B; Lebedev B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Huck B; Lebedev B-
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Huck B; Lebedev B

The Picks

In terms of action, Huck-Lebedev would be surprising if it did not surpass Pascal-Hopkins.  The southpaw challenger has one of those slow boiling pressure styles that work into good scraps.  In this contest, two factors will weigh heavy for Huck at the Max Schmeling Hall in Berlin.  First off, Huck is faster.  Second, Lebedev is a sucker for the jab against orthodox foes.  While Huck has been stopped once, his beard is otherwise dependable and he should be a step ahead most of the night in a fight with some spirited exchanges.  The pick here is Huck by a decision.
 
And then there is the old man.  Can Hopkins, at 45, become the oldest man to win a legitimate World Championship?  If Pascal had a weaker chin, if he hadn’t come through the sort of baptism by fire battles he’s seen in the last couple years, the pick would be easier.  Hopkins is too good, Pascal too unrefined.

However, Pascal makes the most of his rough edges and he has the home court advantage.  Hopkins may be a defensive genius but Pascal’s fourth and fifth shots in flurries are going to be a problem for him as the rounds tick by.  Pascal needs to make sure those flurries happen more than once every sixty to ninety seconds to maximize affect but will Hopkins throw enough to offset it?

This is a terribly difficult fight to assess but, on the coin flip, the choice is youth and speed, Pascal by decision.

Report Card Picks 2010: 38-16

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com