By Cliff Rold
From here on out, World Jr. Lightweight champion Manny Pacquiao (46-3-2, 35 KO) is playing for the icing. Only 29 years old, win or lose, he’s at the point in his career where all of the accolades a fighter can dream about are already in hand. National God by way of the Philippines: check. World champion in three weight classes (112, 126, 130): check, with another title to boot at 122. Tons of money: check and with more checks to come. Career defining rivalries: check and chin checked were some of the best Mexican Featherweights ever assembled.
Hall of Fame: Check, first ballot, standing room only.
If a fighter’s career is a cake his fists decorate, than Pacquiao has reached the point where he’s looking to squeeze out those last drops of sugary goodness before heading for the display case. One of those drops is expected to be added on Saturday by way of 32-year old 1996 U.S. Olympian and WBC Lightweight titlist David Diaz (34-1-1, 17 KO). Sure, few beyond kin would argue Diaz as the real World champion at 135 lbs., but being that no one has ever won belts of any kind at 112 and 135 lbs., there’s still some level of accomplishment to be gained this weekend.
But will it be gained?
Let’s go to the report card.
Speed: Pacquiao at his best is leaps and bounds faster than Diaz. Pacquiao on an off day, say the Jorge Solis fight…still leaps and bounds faster. He should be faster another five pounds up the scale too, but how much faster no one will know until he gets into the ring. At some point, increased body mass starts to sap speed and Pacquiao has already shown to be just a tick slower in recent fights than he was at Jr. Featherweight and Featherweight. Any extra time off the watch on Saturday would be a boon for Diaz. Diaz isn’t slow by any stretch, but for him to win he’s going to have to be able to land when Pacquiao is coming in and pulling back from his leaping left. He’s going to have to shoot through spots and hope he catches Pacquiao blind to set up a war of attrition where he can put Manny on his back foot and lean on him. Any assistance Pacquiao can provide in even marginally increased inertia would certainly be appreciated by Diaz. Until proven otherwise, Pacquiao has to be assumed to be at least as fast as he was against Juan Manuel Marquez this past March. Pre-Fight Grades: Pacquiao A; Diaz B
Power: Diaz isn’t a power puncher; Pacquiao is one of the best in the history of Boxing. The list of men who have collected titles and knockouts across approximately twenty or more pounds is short to say the least. Again though, an x-factor erupts in Pacquiao coming up the scale. At some point, the scale has to mitigate power right? Considering that a shot Erik Morales hurt and dropped Diaz last summer, it’s not a stretch to think that even a slight drop in the snap on Pacquiao’s shots could still put Diaz in a bad way. What could matter more than Pacquiao’s power is Diaz’s resolve; he got up against Morales after all and fought his heart out. He always fights his heart out and he hurts to the body, a place Pacquiao hasn’t been tested often. He’ll need that resolve as his career exhibits that for Diaz to win, he needs rounds to do it. Pre-Fight Grades: Pacquiao A; Diaz B-
Defense: Both of these men get hit but Pacquiao is harder to hit clean. His herky-jerky style, head movement and odd offensive angles create an elusive target. Under trainer Freddie Roach, he has also become much better at using his gloves, forearms and elbows to block shots. Diaz, though prone to swelling and often available coming in, isn’t an easy target either. His pressuring style often forces his opponents to take something off their shots to catch him clean. Against Morales, whose gameness could not mask his lost steps, he got caught clean often. Against a Kendall Holt who held a significant speed advantage, he took a beating. Pacquiao doesn’t possess the height advantages of Holt so Diaz can know that at least he won’t have to deal with that. Pre-Fight Grades: Pacquiao B; Diaz B
Intangibles: It took Diaz so many years after the Olympics, and so many fights against average competition, to get to a fight like this that there are really only two logical conclusions to consider: his management was very careful with a limited fighter and expertly got him to some big money late in his fistic life or he’s been a hidden gem all along waiting for just this sort of marquee shot. It’s probably more of the former than the latter, but who knows for sure. Diaz’s one loss came against an excellent athlete in Holt five pounds further up the scale and it wasn’t the sort of pressure cooker this is. Under pressure, we know this: Diaz famously chased down a heavily favored Zab Judah to make the Olympics, came from way behind on the cards to stop Santa Cruz and came off the floor to narrowly decision Morales. Add to that the sort of internal strength it takes to hang around in a rough game for years waiting for a shot, and Diaz’s character is unquestionable. He’s a gamer. In Pacquiao, all the questions have been answered. He can come back when hurt, has an excellent chin, and comes up big in big moments. The only mark for Manny is what it always is: did he train with focus or did his fame and prosperity take some edge off? Recent results suggest those questions are more narrative than real negative. Pre-Fight Grades: Pacquiao A; Diaz A
Overall Report Card: Pacquiao A; Diaz B
The Pick: As much as there is to respect about Diaz, on paper this looks like a contest between different classes of fighter. Diaz is a solid professional; Manny Pacquiao is the best active fighter in the game. Take away the belt, and this fight is what you would expect for a fighter taking a leap in weight that history says is just a wee bit outlandish. It’s testing the water. I expect Diaz to have some success, and to put on a good show, but Manny has more tools and more World class professional experience. Look for the Filipino icon to take over and batter Diaz after the sixth, scoring a stoppage sometime around the tenth round.
The scale will eventually beat Manny, but it’s unlikely to happen this weekend.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com