By Cliff Rold
How old is Oscar De La Hoya?
It’s the question at the heart of this weekend’s major Boxing event. The calendar says he’s 35 but, in Boxing, age is not determined just by the calendar. Bernard Hopkins can at 43 fight like a fan half his age while a Fernando Vargas can be twice his age in ring years by 30. If De La Hoya’s 35 is closer to Carlos Monzon’s than it is Ray Leonard’s, can he lose?
Can this event become a fight?
Everyone in the arena, on one of those heavily rumored discounted tickets or otherwise, and everyone watching around the world on television will hear the opening bell with such questions on their mind. These are both remarkably accomplished warriors, members of the exclusive club of former three-division lineal World champions and titlists of some sort in more divisions than that.
Manny Pacquiao (47-3-2, 35 KO) isn’t coming to lose and will provide fireworks no matter the result. De La Hoya (39-5, 30 KO) may not think he can lose so the chances for violent exchanges, early and often, are likely. What happens in those exchanges will determine the outcome on Saturday night at the MGM Grand.
Honesty must be applied; this fight would be unfathomable were Oscar perceived to be what he was five or six years ago. It would not be deemed competitive and probably wouldn’t be made. His cut 145 lbs. at the official weigh-in could be the fulcrum point. It’s long been supposed he could still easily make the Welterweight limit and he appears to have done so. Pacquiao’s 142 though also provided an impressively cut warrior. From three weight classes apart to only three pounds…Can Pacquiao carry the weight? Has Oscar slipped far enough?
Let’s go to the report card.
Speed: Pacquiao has one advantage in this fight and he’ll need it for every second of all twelve rounds. Manny isn’t just faster than the most recent Oscar seen in the ring; he’s faster than just about everyone else in Boxing too. His power and aggressiveness often overshadow just how lightning quick Pacquiao can be. Oscar, through about the Vargas fight, was also one of the sports quickest draws but he’s slowed recently. It doesn’t mean he isn’t still able to catch men blind. His right hand caught Floyd Mayweather often in the first 2/3 of their bout in May 2007 even when the left could not and, when he uses it, his jab gets there fast and hard. De La Hoya can negate Pacquiao’s speed by jabbing to the chest and keeping Pacquiao outside. Oscar isn’t just taller after all; his reach is inches longer meaning control of geography will allow him to time Pacquiao’s rushes. Pacquiao has to get in and out, remembering when he throws his leaping left not to leave himself wide open. De La Hoya might only have to catch him coming in once with a left hook Pacquiao has never come close to feeling before. Pre-Fight Grades: Pacquiao A; De La Hoya B+
Power: Pacquiao can punch; he’s proved it. Few fighters remain killer punchers twenty pounds from their first world title weight and yet the former Flyweight champion knocked out a tough career Lightweight, David Diaz, in his last fight. Until we see the proof that he’s carried his power to 147, it has to be assumed his blows won’t be as lethal. Even if they were, can he punch hard enough at Welterweight to wilt a man whose stood up to the best from heavy handed warriors like Ike Quartey and Fernando Vargas over the years? It’s a different equation before even remembering a very important point. Oscar can punch too. At one time, he was among the most lethal punchers in the game, a brutal knockout artist versus World class Jr. Lightweights and Lightweights early in his career. That’s what he has in front of him this weekend…a Pacquiao who was a world class Jr. Lightweight and Lightweight in his last two bouts. Two fights ago, the power was still there in making a mat stain of Ricardo Mayorga in six. Pre-Fight Grades: De La Hoya B+; Pacquiao B (only because the fight is at Welter)
Defense: Perhaps the most underrated element of his game, De La Hoya is a very good, very subtle defensive fighter. One of the reasons he’s still plugging into his sixteenth paid year is he doesn’t get caught clean too often. He blocks well with his gloves and arms and applies effective head movement behind his jab. Pacquiao has gotten better defensively but still gets hit and often finds himself out of position when he misses left hands. He stands, at 5’6 ½, a solid four inches shorter than De La Hoya and could make a small target when bent over and wading in. The key for penetrating Oscar’s defenses is to be low all night and get to the body repeatedly. Pre-Fight Grades: De La Hoya B+; Pacquiao B
Intangibles: For the time being, Pacquiao is the pound-for-pound king. If the visual evidence suggests a faded but still effective Oscar winning en route to a close decision, he probably still will be Sunday morning. It’s the rare fight where a man can lose in a way which elevates him. Victory always elevates more and Pacquiao holds the hopes of a nation in his hands. If he wins? Forget about it…there will be some huge names coming up in conversation. While this fight invites skepticism, Pacquiao does deserve credit for the risk. A former Flyweight king knocking off a former Welterweight king of high regard is unheard of stuff. Even if Pacquiao’s body matured far beyond 112 lbs., he still has been at peak weight for the last few years no higher than 130 and shows real guts (and business sense) in taking this fight. Along with guts, he has an excellent chin (both his stoppage losses were years ago and on body shots under starvation-to-make-weight conditions) and tireless energy. De La Hoya also has a great chin, but sometimes falters down the stretch of big fights. Is it mental fatigue? The sign of a man whose achieved so much already that he just can’t get up for a whole night? We will find out more on Saturday. If Pacquiao is still around, and close, after eight rounds then this event will have turned into a fight after all. Pre-Fight Grades: Pacquiao A; De La Hoya B+
The Pick: The bottom line is, so far, De La Hoya has looked far from being a shot fighter. Two fights ago, he was well in the fight with Floyd Mayweather. In his last fight, while he took quite a few shots from Forbes, it can be taken for granted De La Hoya knew Forbes couldn’t hurt him. He was highly active throughout and dominated most of the bout and, as he showed in stretching young Andre Berto the distance recently, Forbes is no slouch anyways. If they were more naturally the same size, Pacquiao would have to be favored. They are not and unless Oscar is really far more past his best than realized so far, Oscar should win inside the distance anytime from the third round forward.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
