By Cliff Rold
On May 8, 2004, one of the all-time great battles for the World Featherweight championship finished without a winner. Now, almost four years later, for the vacant World Jr. Lightweight championship, Manny Pacquiao (45-3-2, 35 KO) and Juan Manuel Marquez (48-3-1, 35 KO, WBC titlist) prepare to resume their classic hostilities.
We hope.
We hope because experience dictates that not every sequel lives up to the original. That’s true in movies, in novels, and in boxing. The reason the great prizefighting rivalries stand out is because they are rare. For every Israel Vasquez-Rafael Marquez II (& III), there’s an Evander Holyfield-Dwight Muhammad Qawi II.
This weekend’s affair has as much a chance to disappoint as it does to exceed expectation. I suspect it will fall somewhere in the middle. At 34, Marquez has been more exciting than usual in recent bouts, more flat-footed and willing to exchange. That sounds like a recipe for war, but standing in front of Pacquiao can be a dangerous proposition. In the first bout, Pacquiao dropped a still-prime Marquez three times in the first round. Marquez got up and nearly won the fight. Will his body allow for the same spirit to prevail this weekend?
Conversely, was the Manny Pacquiao of 2007, who looked somewhat flat in stopping Jorge Solis and decisioning Marco Antonio Barrera, a distracted fighter? Or, only 29, has the ultimate pressure fighter begun his decline as well?
Let’s go the report card.
Speed: Even if Manny has begun the inevitable slipping of any great fighter, he should still have the advantage in raw, athletic speed that he held in the first fight. At his best, Pacquiao is among the fastest fighters in the sport. His ability to land his left hand from odd angles is due to the natural gifts moving it there like lighting. That’s he’s added a crisp right hook increases the danger. Timing can control speed and that’s where Marquez is a gem. He snaps his jab and is able to throw precision combinations off of it. He can go left jab-right hand-short left uppercut with each punch picking up more steam. His problem is a tad less steam in his tank. Marquez’s bout with Barrera last March was a pleasing brawl but one that exposed a lost step in both men. In the first bout with Manny, Marquez’s timed combinations allowed him to earn his draw, blunting Manny’s offense and making him more predictable as the fight wore on. If he follows recent form, standing more flat-footed, timing will be of the essence for Marquez and he’ll have to hurt Manny to keep him at a distance. I don’t know if father time will give him that chance. Pre-Fight Grades: Pacquiao A; Marquez B
Power: Pacquiao’s power, when combined with his speed, is scary. He has the ability to beat a man with one punch or overwhelm them with dozens. Barrera, Erik Morales and Lehlo Ledwaba can all speak to the latter. Marquez knows more than he wants to about how lethal Pacquiao is with one shot. That he has carried power with him through lineal World titles at 112 and 126 lbs., and an alphabelt reign at 122 lbs, is almost incomprehensible. Very few little men have been able to carry their hammers north on the scale. Those that could, men like Sam Langford and Roberto Duran, were a rare and breathtaking breed. Pacquiao is too. That doesn’t mean Marquez can’t bring the pain. He and Pacquiao have almost identical knockout percentages and he stunned Pacquiao more than once in their original thriller. This is more a case of style. Pacquiao’s power electrifies while Marquez simply dulls the senses over time. The separation isn’t as big as might appear. Pre-Fight Grades: Pacquiao A; Marquez B+
Defense: Neither man is easy to hit but Manny is the easier to hit of the two. He rocks from side to side, which can be disconcerting but also settle into patterns. His trainer, Freddie Roach, has improved his ability to block with his gloves but Manny’s best defense is still his offense. One reason Marquez is still seen as live in this fight, even at 34, is that his defense has always been excellent. He parries into counters and is a master of distance. In the first bout with Pacquiao, and last year in wins against both Barrera and Rocky Juarez, he was able to make his opponents miss as they were coming forward by gauging the range they needed to operate. He has become more hittable as he has become more stationery, but it’s still rare to see him caught twice in a row flush. Pre-Fight Grades: Pacquiao B; Marquez A-
Intangibles: Both men have proven chins. Both men have proven hearts. Both have proven that they can overcome adversity. One of the reasons that this fight is still so appealing even past its due date is that we know so much about the men involved. If it goes into the second half of the bout, it could become a test of wills, a test of who wants it more. Pacquiao carries the weight of a nation; Marquez carries the weight of needing to stamp his place for good. He needs this fight more; he needs a win against a man like Pacquiao, still close to his prime, to punctuate his standing amongst his peers for good. He’s still too much the fighter who was avoided, with lots of good wins but few great ones. This would be a great win. Unfortunately, Pacquiao is a gamer and whatever Marquez needs, Pacquiao may still have the youth to want for more. Pre-Fight Grades: Pacquiao A; Marquez A
Overall Report Card: Pacquiao A-; Marquez B+
This fight is a close call all the way around but I can’t shake the feeling that it is arriving just a hair past when Marquez could have made the most of it. Like Barrera, Marquez enters his Pacquiao rematch showing signs of age and, while flat in 2007, Manny doesn’t look to be out of his prime just yet.
I could be wrong and the many directions this could go make it can’t-miss entertainment. Just a few as food for though: Marquez could hurt Manny early this time and take him to school; Manny could overwhelm Marquez a la the third Morales bout; or we could get a fight that looks and feels just like the first. Any of those options would result in memorable fisticuffs.
I expect the lasting memory to be a stoppage in favor of Pacquiao sometime around the 11th round in a more tactical fight than anticipated.
For a look at the story behind these elements, check out yesterday’s look at the stake for this bout by clicking here: https://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=13064
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
