Ortiz, Bradley, Mares: Recapping 2014’s “Best” Guesses

By Lyle Fitzsimmons

They can’t all be gems.

When those of us sharing the Christmas inclination emerged from morning huddles around living-room evergreens last week, my guess is that a good number did so while muttering about either a great gift that wasn’t received – or an iffy one that was.

“Oh, sweetheart, no worries… I didn’t want that big-screen TV anyway. It’s silly. I’m much happier with the autographed copy of David Greisman’s latest book. How did you ever know?”

Or something like that.

It’s with precisely that mindset – or a reasonable facsimile – that we present the 2014 recap of “Fitzbitz Hitz and Misses” for the year that’s less than 48 hours from history.

For those who don’t recall the past few run-throughs, this is the column where we look back at the piece that was written in early January with the intention of forecasting the upcoming year’s major superlatives. We include a brief recap of that early-year rationale, then assess a letter grade for just how awful the prediction turned out to be.

And, for the record, we’re not above yet another mention of the column’s all-time greatest feat: predicting Andre Ward’s breakout as fighter of the year in 2011.

On with the show…

COMEBACK OF THE YEAR

OK, it might be about time to come clean. I might be a little bit too high on Victor Ortiz.

Though he’s the fighter too many fans and journalists simply can’t wait to hate, I’ve always had a soft spot for the guy. I think the media has given him a perpetual raw deal and I think his misfires have been as much about bad luck and bad timing as a lack of guts or skill.

With those rosy sentiments in mind at this time last December, I forecast him to be 2014’s comeback fighter of the year based on what I assumed would be defeats of Luis Collazo and Carlos Molina in January and September, respectively. Instead, he was quickly blown out by Collazo and was subsequently off radar until reappearing on Showtime Extreme with a tougher-than-it-should-have-been three-round stoppage of a 10-loss opponent named Manuel Perez.

He did finish the year with a win, so I’ll claim partial credit. And who knows, he may ultimately provide 2015’s best comeback, after all.

But if he does, I’ll not be taking credit for it next time.

GRADE: D-
 
UPSET OF THE YEAR

My contrarian fires were burning hot over this one last winter.

Though I’ll concede that I thought Manny Pacquiao beat Tim Bradley when they met for the first time in 2012, I didn’t the final verdict was nearly as ridiculous as some others I’d seen in recent years. And based on that, and on the version of Bradley who’d schooled Juan Manuel Marquez, it was no great stretch to me to think that “Desert Storm” would walk into Las Vegas in April with the WBO welterweight belt and walk away with genuine superstardom.

Clearly, I was wrong. Whether I underestimated Pacquiao, overestimated Bradley or was simply under the influence of some bad eggnog last Christmas, it was a clear 180 from what ended up occurring, which was a decisive – if not breathtaking – unanimous nod for Pac Man.

I’ll save myself the fail grade because the fight did actually occur, but it was still a disappointing guess.

GRADE: D-

KNOCKOUT OF THE YEAR

I’m feeling a little stubborn on this one.

I was in the building for each and every one of Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s 24 rounds with Marcos Maidana, and while I commend the rugged Argentine for the effort, I don’t fall in line with the consensus opinion that the two fights were the toughest of “Money’s” nearly 20-year pro career.

I think Oscar De La Hoya, Zab Judah and Miguel Cotto were as good or better over 12 rounds, and Maidana never had him anywhere near the peril that Shane Mosley created with a single punch.

But he did wind up more competitive than I would have expected a year ago. Back then, I assumed Mayweather would get to Maidana for the first and only time in September and would dispatch him in Round 10 for the year’s best knockout. No matter how you slice it, it’s a miss – though again I’m happy the fight(s) actually happened.

GRADE: D-

FIGHT OF THE YEAR

The reason I’m willing to take partial credit when fights actually come off is because when a pick is made and the fight doesn’t actually happen, well… it looks pretty bad.

Consider that the case with my advanced choice for 2014’s top fight, the ill-fated rematch between Abner Mares and Jhonny Gonzalez.

It looked like a slam dunk that the two would get together again to reprise one of 2013’s top upsets and knockouts, but the schedule initially crashed when Mares was injured while training for the second meeting and was then scuttled entirely when the camps decided to go in opposite directions.

Mares mentioned the possibility of another Gonzalez after the latest of his attempts to regain past stature, but it didn’t do me much good while trying to defend this stinker of a pick from last winter.

GRADE: F

FIGHTER OF THE YEAR

He unified a pair of belts in the welterweight division in May, then fought a return match with the same foe in September and won by what most considered to be a more comfortable margin. As a result, when it comes to making a case for fighter of the year, Floyd Mayweather Jr. isn’t entirely without a case.

But let’s face it, only members of “The Money Team” are going to give that case more than a moment of two of consideration when it’s laid alongside guys like Terence Crawford and Sergey Kovalev.

So while I’d love to go to the wall defending my pre-2014 Floyd choice, I can’t bring myself to do it.

Not a terrible forecast, but not the right one either. And if anyone has legitimate evidence that he picked Crawford as 2014’s best a year in advance, swear your allegiance to his genius immediately.

GRADE: C-