By Cliff Rold
Anyone bored by the Heavyweight division, outside of Germany, can raise their hands?
It probably looks like the first global “wave.”
It doesn’t have to be this way. It will take a while for anything to make the division good, but this weekend it can at least become something it has not been for a while. It can become interesting.
Much of that will depend on the outcome. If the titlist in the contest retains, there is little to get excited about. What there is to know is already known. He’s really big, fundamentally sound, and gets some favorable decisions when he is otherwise outmatched. And he’s as exciting to watch as paint already dried most of the time.
The challenger is different. He come to fight, throws big shots, has exceptional speed, and a personality which can move the gate. But is he a serious Heavyweight? We don’t know yet and there isn’t really any evidence one way or the other.
Heavyweight boxing can become interesting by Sunday. It is for at least a day on Saturday.
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Nicolay Valuev
Age: 36
Titles: WBA Heavyweight (2008-Present, 1 Defense)
Previous Titles: WBA Heavyweight (2005-07, 3 Defenses)
Height: 7’0
Weight: 315 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 318 lbs.
Hails from: Saint Petersburg, Russia
Record: 50-1, 34 KO
Record in Championship Fights: 6-1, 3 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 3 (John Ruiz, Sergei Lyakhovich, Evander Holyfield)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Ruslan Chagaev)
Vs.
David Haye
Age: 29
Title: None
Previous Titles: World Cruiserweight (2007-08, 1 Defense); WBC/WBA (2007-08, 1 Defense); WBO 2008
Height: 6’3
Weight: 218 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 206 lbs.
Hails from: London, England, United Kingdom
Record: 22-1, 21 KO
Record in Championship Fights: 2-0, 2 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 3 (Giacobbe Fragomeni, Jean Marc Mormeck, Enzo Maccarinelli)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Carl Thompson)
Pre-Fight Grades
Pre: Speed – Haye A+; Valuev C
Pre: Power – Haye B+; Valuev B
Pre: Defense – Haye B-; Valuev B-
Pre: Intangibles – Haye B; Valuev B
Haye has advantages in speed and power but they could be mitigated by the sheer size of Valuev. The Russian is so much better than most of the division that it is almost comical. Speed has troubled him though and it makes Haye live. Chagaev simply got to him first all night and then stepped to the side. Valuev had no answer and lost decidedly. John Ruiz stayed close and was able to land well in both their fights, and Ruiz is no speed demon. Heck, even Larry Donald and Jameel McCline had their successes and let’s not even get into Valuev’s most recent bout.
Well, actually, lets.
Last December, an old man who used to be the great Evander Holyfield outboxed Valuev for most of twelve rounds and did so simply by being first for huge stretches of an otherwise tedious bout. All of this should make Haye, and his backers, optimistic. He’s faster than any of those men. His power isn’t entirely proven at Heavyweight but the cruiserweights he was dumping aren’t little guys in general. That means his speed will have more consequence when it finds the beard of Valuev.
All of these are big positives for the former Cruiserweight king. His problems start in his style. Men like Chagaev and Holyfield were content to play keep away and control a methodical pace. Haye is a hair on fire type. He comes looking for the big shot and is willing to sacrifice defense in pursuit of the early exit. Valuev might not be a huge puncher, but he’s so big that his arm punches can make opponents think. Haye needs to be thoughtful before the arm punches have a chance to land.
He might not have the chin to resist them.
Despite his athletic tools, Haye has never appeared to have a granite chin. Mormeck had him hurt, Thompson stopped him early in his career, and even a shopworn Monte Barrett appeared to stun him in his previous bout. To his credit, he came off the floor against both Mormeck and Barrett and won by emphatic knockout.
Haye has also suffered some stamina issues in the past. He fights so wound up that he can waste energy. Valuev to date has shown a very strong chin and commendable stamina. If Haye doesn’t get him early, Valuev will plod forward with an underrated jab and the right hand will follow in a volume of blows. Neither man is great defensively, but Valuev picks off shots better than Haye does. Valuev can make this a grind and has experience against world class Heavyweights Haye simply has not picked up yet. The big man, as a bonus, fights relaxed and never appears to rattle.
It’s also worth wondering how much pressure Haye will feel from his own bravado. After pulling out of bouts with both Klitschko brothers, bouts he talked more than fought his way into in the first place, could he feel pressure to shine? If he does, will his natural aggression push him to be more unnecessarily risky than usual?
The Pick
As noted, Haye has God-given tools which can allow him to win this fight but the application of tools is the key in any contest. The issue is whether the wild swinging Londoner can apply the discipline over a lengthy fight to find a win. Valuev is likely to be standing after early barrages. The guess here is he won’t. Haye has to have a plan to win over twelve and only once has been asked to do so. Eventually, the mental pressure of Valuev coming forward, and the physical effort of keeping the 300-plus pounder away, will get to Haye and, when it does, the chance for a more interesting Heavyweight division will evaporate along with Haye’s hopes for victory. Look for a Valuev stoppage in the second half of the bout.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
