By Cliff Rold

It doesn’t have the star power of the others…

It doesn’t have the hype…

…whatever.

The hardcore faithful out there know what might be coming.  Of all the Lightweight fights this September 2008, a month dominated by the boys at 135 lbs., Nate Campbell vs. Joan Guzman might be the best match of the bunch.  No, it doesn‘t have the element of potential carnage hoped for in last weekend’s Juan Diaz-Michael Katsidis bout.  What it does have is two boxer punchers with the experience and contrast to make the fight almost impossible to pick.

As noted in this site’s picks of the week way back Monday, this fight is more than the sum of its impressive parts.  There is some real story here.  36-year old Nate Campbell’s ongoing middle-aged surge was capped off with a March victory over Diaz for the WBO, IBF and WBA belts.  Can a career marked by ups and downs stay up, granting Campbell a lasting place at the big boys table?

Conversely, in his fourth weight class, can Guzman fulfill the promise his physical talents have long held.  Sure, Guzman has some good wins; Jorge Barrios and Humberto Soto are nothing to sneeze at.  However, for years now, he has toiled just beneath the Boxing mainstream, ignored by the biggest names because, hey, why bring up a guy who might beat you if most folks have never heard of him?

These are the sort of questions the best fights are built on.  Will it play out in the ring? 

Let’s go to the Report Card.

Speed: Neither of these fighters is slow of hand or foot.  They apply those natural gifts in different ways.  It’s one of the elements that make the bout a toss-up; they’re versatile.  Campbell’s win over Diaz came largely in outfighting the infighter at close quarters with quick short punches and busting him up at distances he chose from the outside.  He can work the perimeter and counter punch as well, something he did to great effect in the 2005 knockout win that turned his career around after some spotty losses versus Kid Diamond.  Campbell, when he’s on, has excellent timing as well.  Against Guzman, he’ll need it.  Guzman is nothing like Diamond or Diaz or really anyone Campbell’s fought since facing the multi-dimensional Joel Casamayor in 2003.  Guzman has impressive speed and uses it in both orthodox and unorthodox fashion.  He can jab and counter, fight inside in rapid combination, and his feet and head move at equally befuddling rates.  Campbell has to come ready to dictate the pace early or risk falling behind on the cards and being forced to chase.  If timing beats speed, Campbell would be well advised to remember his jab; it could his biggest advantage based on arm length.  Campbell’s reach is longer than Guzman’s and a simple glance shows off just how much longer his arms are.  Get the stick working and Campbell can force Guzman to come to him where his greater comfort at Lightweight could bear fruit.  Pre-Fight Grades: Guzman A; Campbell B+

Power:  Neither guy is much for one-punch wins at the elite level but how many guys are?  A scan of their records and available previous bouts says both have respectable power.  How much power Guzman brings up to Lightweight is worthy of debate.  Campbell has fought most of his career between Jr. Lightweight and Lightweight; Guzman fought and won a title at Jr. Featherweight and a precipitous drop in his stoppage ration shows of what it could mean.  Guzman has not scored a knockout since leaving the confines of 122 lbs. in 2004.  He clearly hits hard enough to keep his opponents honest, but against Barrios and Soto over the last year he couldn’t hit hard enough to deter the bigger men coming forward.  Campbell has always been a boxer-puncher, heavy handed enough to hurt better fighters and, with enough hurt, stop them late but perfectly comfortable with hearing the final bell.  His willingness to go hard top the body could go a long way to unraveling the naturally smaller Guzman.  Pre-Fight Grades: Campbell B+; Guzman B-

Defense: Another category with positive things to say about both men.  Guzman is the flashier commodity, applying slick touches that not only make opponents miss but frustrate them and catch the eyes of ring judges.  Where Guzman could make a mistake with Campbell is in his willingness to drop his hands in favor of slipping and rolling with shots.  The showman in Guzman could create openings.  Campbell also applies solid head movement but also blocks well with his arms and gloves.  His defensive advantage could come in a more relaxed approach.  He rolls and counters in the sort of loose, natural style of a James Toney.  Unlike Toney, he has shown he can be caught clean.  In contrast, Guzman is all nervous energy, a bundle of hair trigger reactions, and rarely is caught clean upstairs.  Pre-Fight Grades: Guzman A-; Campbell B+

Intangibles: It takes a lot of focus for a fighter like Guzman to stay undefeated for over a decade without the big rewards his talents suggest he should have.  His steadiness in the face of a long climb is admirable.  So too is Campbell’s ability to overcome losses to the likes of Robbie Peden and  Francisco Lorenzo, fights he should have won on paper, and find his best fight against an undefeated beast like Diaz.  These are men of professional character.  For Guzman, it could be his only real chance to cross over into the upper echelon of main events.  For Campbell, it’s a chance to make a moment of success into undeniable momentum.  Who wants it more?  It’s hard to say, but they both need this win for different reasons.  Both have solid chins and decent stamina, but both also lapse at odd moments in fights.  Guzman in particular can pull off the gas and coast; against Campbell, he won’t have the chance. Pre-Fight Grades: Guzman A-; Campbell B+

Overall Report Card: Campbell B+; Guzman A-

The Pick: Campbell was one of the better stories of the first half of the year; I expect Guzman to emerge as one of the key stories in the second half.  It won’t be easy.  Guzman will have to be focused for all twelve rounds to have a shot and he needs to come ready to build an early lead because Campbell will get better as the fight wears on.  If Campbell’s long jab is established before the second half of the fight, he could exact a brutal price against Guzman down the stretch in Guzman’s first real step to 135.  I suspect the speed gap will allow Guzman to get his lead and hold it, pulling out a decision at around 8-4 in rounds in a very good fight. 

We all find out if such will be the case Saturday night on Showtime at 9 PM EST/PST.

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com