Sean Gibbons isn’t necessarily a gambling man, though he does believe fate is on the side of his superstar client.
The head of MP Promotions is confident that Manny Pacquiao will not allow Yordenis Ugas (26-4, 12KOs) to see the final bell in their WBA welterweight title fight. It’s a bold claim considering that the legendary Filipino has only scored one knockout in his past sixteen fights, while Ugas—a late replacement for injured WBC/IBF welterweight champ Errol Spence (27-0, 21KOs)—has never been stopped through 30 pro bouts.
Time isn’t exactly on the side of Pacquiao, who hasn’t fought in 25 months and is four months shy of his 43rd birthday. In that sense, his team is confident that the full-time Senator in Philippines and returning ring legend is due for at least one more big moment.
"40th knockout at age 42. I just feel the time is right and I love that,” Gibbons told BoxingScene.com and other writers ahead of Saturday’s title fight. “40th knockout at 42 in a weird way it all lines up.
"Bet between [rounds] 7-9. I would never tell anyone to bet though. Anything can happen.”
Current odds at BetMGM sportsbook places Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39KOs) at +1200 (bet $100 to win another $1,200) to end the fight in either rounds seven or eight, and +1600 (bet $100 to win another $1,600) to end the fight in round nine. Caesars Sportsbook places the over/under at 10.5 rounds, -200 (bet $200 to win another $100) on the over and +150 (bet $100 to win another $150) to end prior to that point.
Pacquiao’s lone stoppage since 2010 came in a seventh-round stoppage over what was left of Argentina’s Lucas Matthysse in their July 2018 meeting. In fact, the only other fight during that stretch to end inside the distance came in a sixth-round knockout loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in their fourth and final fight in December 2012 at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Saturday’s bout takes place at nearby T-Mobile Arena, live on Fox Sports Pay-Per-View. Pacquiao initially expected to face Spence, announcing the fight this past May and entering camp soon thereafter in daring to be great deep in the twilight of his incredible career. The bulk of the hard work was done by the time Spence was forced to withdraw due to an eye injury, leaving him to accept a fight with Ugas on just eleven days’ notice.
From what he’s seen of Pacquiao both in the gym and throughout his incredible, Hall of Fame-bound career, the president of MP Promotions senses a great night though is wise enough to proceed with caution.
"The only thing I am worried about is we gotta see what Manny really has,” notes Gibbons. “You can be amazing in the gym - look at Oscar [De La Hoya] when he fought Manny [in December 2008] - everything was great and then all of a sudden the wheels fell off the cart. I don't see that happening. In the gym he is like at 110% so I am not really worried about anything. I just feel good about it,
"I think things line up right. I don't think Manny thinks about things like that but I feel this is the right fight for a KO. The Lucas Matthysse fight was the right fight and this one, I feel the style of Ugas is made to order. If you got cement in your shoes, Manny is going to be all over the place. I feel that from the angles he is punching at, he will knock him out.”
Jake Donovan is a senior writer for BoxingScene.com. Twitter: @JakeNDaBox
