By Don Colgan
What defines a true upset? An boxing upset can be defined as an instance where the widely anticipated outcome not only fails to materialize, with the likely loser emerging victorious. There have been dozens, perhaps hundreds of upsets in boxing, a sport that lends itself to the startling result perhaps more so than any other sport.
Truman beat Dewey in 1948. That was a stunning upset; Dewey was widely predicted to win an electoral and popular vote landslide. In retrospect, had today’s
modern polling methodology been in place in 1948, it would have been revealed that Truman had pulled into the lead before election day. It really wasn’t an upset.
Now the 1980 Team USA triumph over the Soviet Union was perhaps the greatest upset in any sport. It was the equivalent of a college team defeating the finest hockey team in the world, including the NHL Stanley Cup Champion Montreal Canadians. The Jet’s triumph over Baltimore in the 1969 Super Bowl and the Mets 5 game romp over the Orioles in ’69 were staggering upsets, although ultimately explainable. Namath was a confident, skilled quarterback and picked the Baltimore secondary to pieces. The Mets had Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan and Tug McGraw on their pitching staff, and everybody knows pitching always prevails.
Yet in boxing the term “Upset” is redefined. Why? Because of the exaggerated opinion of the presumed “unbeatable” favorite and the often remarkably low opinion held of the loser to be. When Holyfield knocked out Tyson in 1996 he was a staggering 25 to 1 underdog when the betting opening (this was sharply reduced to 8-1 on the eve of the bout).
At that juncture in their careers, Tyson had not fought anyone remotely as tough and proven as Evander Holyfield. For Holyfield to be a short ender of that magnitude was ridiculous, even though he had lost two of three bouts of Riddick Bowe which thinned out his pedigree somewhat. It was a “Major Championship Defense” for Tyson, and Mike being a 3 or 4 to 1 favorite would have been proper, considering how formidable and resilient Holyfield was and is.
It was a classic example of another “upset” that was not an upset. There have been many over the past half century. Let’s take a look at the “Top 5” that clearly fit into this category, not including one that may just be in the making.
As the Mayweather-De La Hoya title bout draws near, Pretty Boy has been elevated to a solid favorite, by the sheer measure of his utter domination over the past seven years,
to the familiar mantle of perceived invincibility. The same invincibility Liston had when he was unbeaten. The same invincibility Frazier had before Jamaica. The same invincibility Foreman had before Zaire.
Form says Mayweather has too much youth, hand speed, talent and diversity to have much of a problem with a somewhat shopworn De La Hoya.
That’s just the recipe for an Oscar award performance that will lead to an upset.
“Upset #1”
Mike Tyson vs Buster Douglas:
Tyson seemed to belong with the Gods. Unbeaten and terrifying, he was already being immortalized among the all time great Heavyweight titleholders. Yet it was all a mirage born by weak challengers and the perceived indestructibility of Tyson.
Douglas was a 42 to 1 underdog. Tyson was mentally unprepared, granted. Yet
Buster was a standup heavyweight that night, a true title threat. Mike could not get around the bigger man's jab. When finally faced with an opponent with courage and the determination to endure punishment and impose his own will, Mike crumbled.
Douglas was not a fighter for the ages, yet in January 1990 he was a legitimate top ten contender. The odds should have been 7 or 8 to 1. Had they fought ten times, Douglas would have taken 8 of them. Mike never fully recovered from the loss.
“Upset #2”
Cassius Clay vs. Sonny Liston:
Like Tyson, Liston bore the mantle of perceived indestructabity. Yet, he'd been troubled and extended the full 12 round route by Eddie Machen in 1960. Clay/Ali’s
wondrous skills were still a work in progress and his 1963 knockdown at the hands of Cooper seem to portend disaster against Liston. However, his blinding speed and dazzling hand speed were too much for Liston to handle. Sonny hurt Clay in the 2nd, 3rd and 5th round yet the marvelous challenger was never threatened. When Liston
quit on his stool, he avoided a certain knockout in the 8th or 9th rounds.
It was truly not an upset. Had they fought ten times, Ali would have taken them all, even at Liston’s brutish prime.
“Upset #3”
Mike Tyson vs. Evander Holyfield
The odds opened at 25 to 1 and shortened to 7 to 1 by the opening bell. In reality, if Mike was a 3 to 1 favorite it would have been about right. Holyfield was a warrior and a relentless, determined, talented foe with multiple weapons and the will to win.
Tyson, the defending champion, was a coward. In the first round Mike landed a big right left combination and pounded Evander in close. The Real Deal didn’t blink. He boxed and punched, and stood right in front of Tyson. The champion was decked in the 6th round and battered over the next 4 before an 11th round TKO restored the great Holyfield to the throne. Mike had never faced anyone with Holyfield’s heart, talent, and will to prevail. It wasn’t an upset at all, just take a look at Tyson and Holyfield today.
Upset #4
Nino Benvenuti-Carlos Monzon #1:
Benvenuti was a handsome Italian two-time Middleweight Champion, and a tough, talented and classy boxer with power. He had defeated Emile Griffith twice, came from behind to knock out Luis Rodriquez with one punch, and prevailed over the best Junior Middleweights and Middleweights in the world from 1964 through 1970. The former Olympic Champion was a strong favorite over the largely unknown Argentine when they met in Rome in 1970. Monzon was a well kept secret outside of South America even though he had gone undefeated since 1964 and was a top ten Middleweight contender. Benvenuti could do little with the Argentine.
Monzon muscled him brutally on the inside and ground him down from the sixth round on. A crushing right hand to the chin dropped the champion into his own corner, dethroned, down and conclusively out. Few expected Benvenuti to be extended by Monzon yet, as history bore out through King Carlo’s 14 championship defenses, his coronation was no upset.
Upset #5
Joe Frazier vs. George Foreman
Frazier was still the undefeated, relentless and seemingly indestructible heavyweight king in early 1973. The world waited for Joe-Ali II and in a poll over 100 sports personalities conducted in late 1972, 71% picked Frazier to win, most of them forecasting inside the distance. Foreman, the monstrous Olympic Champion, was a legitimate title threat and this was a major defense for Frazier. Yet Big George was expected to be grinded into sawdust by Frazier’s crippled body attack and vaunted left hooks to the head.
When they met at ring center, Joe looked like a boy standing in front of the massive, brooding Foreman. Joe may have left a lot of his greatness in the Madison Square Garden ring in March of 1971 yet he never could have beaten George. Foreman punched Joe to the floor, with powerful uppercuts and left hooks, leaving the proud champion a bleeding, reeling, beaten fighter. Six times Frazier went down, and six times he got up. On the eve of the bout, Joe was a solid 3 to 1 favorite.
Fair odds for such a significant challenger. Afterwards, it was called a big upset.
It was not!
The sweet science is the breeding ground for the shocker. We build up our champions, anointing them with invincibility. Ultimately, there arises an opponent who has the skill and chemistry to fracture that invincible veneer.
It was thought Sandy Saddler was only a fair challenge to the great Willy Pep before their first bout in 1949. Johansson pulverized Floyd Patterson through a haze of knockdowns at Yankee Stadium. That was certainly a legitimate upset. Yet even then we knew Floyd had a weak chin and was vulnerable to a big right hand puncher.
So the next time you hear those 30 to 1 odds, remember one thing.
There may be an upset in the making!
