By Cliff Rold
As 2007 came to a close, boxing’s next potential superfight seemed certain. Having dusted then-reigning Jr. Welterweight king Ricky Hatton in December, Floyd Mayweather Jr. was seen by many as the best overall fighter in the sport, but in need of a serious challenge from a serious Welterweight.
One month prior to Mayweather-Hatton, Miguel Cotto, undefeated and holding the WBA title, had defeated former Welterweight champion Shane Mosley in an excellent fight. More than anyone else, Cotto appeared to be that serious Welterweight. Mayweather-Cotto had the look of a career defining fight for both men.
Mayweather retired in 2008 before the idea could be explored. Cotto moved on to a showdown with the oft avoided Mexican brawler Antonio Margarito and was stopped in eleven rounds in July 2008.
And the wheel draws ‘round again.
Mayweather is back of course, victorious in September over reigning Lightweight champion Juan Manuel Marquez. The biggest fight in all the land as of today would be a showdown with Mayweather’s chief ‘pound-for-pound’ rival over the last four years or so, Manny Pacquiao.
Cotto has a chance to change that dynamic.
Having already rebounded from the Margarito loss with a quality win over Joshua Clottey, Cotto now faces the most accomplished fighter of this generation.
Pacquiao has been the lineal king of four weight divisions along with belts in two other weight divisions, title claims in a total of six classes. Remarkably, he skipped over two classes altogether in his journey from Flyweight champion to Welterweight challenger.
In accepting this challenge, Cotto has a chance to make it feel like 2007 all over again. Can he take advantage of the chance in what many think will be the fight of the year?
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Miguel Cotto
Age: 29
Title: WBO Welterweight (2009-Present, 1 Defense)
Previous Titles: WBA Welterweight (2006-08, 4 Defenses); WBO Jr. Welterweight (2004-06, 6 Defenses)
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 146.55 lbs.
Hails from: Caguas, Puerto Rico
Record: 34-1, 27 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 14-1, 11 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 11 (Cesar Bazan, Carlos Maussa, Lovemore N’Dou, Randall Bailey, DeMarcus Corley, Ricardo Torres, Paulie Malignaggi, Carlos Quintana, Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, Joshua Clottey)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Antonio Margarito)
Vs.
Manny Pacquiao
Age: 30
Title: Lineal/Ring World Jr. Welterweight 2009-Present, 0 Defenses
Previous Titles: Lineal World Flyweight 1998-99, 1 Defense; Lineal World Featherweight 2003-05, 2 Defenses; Lineal World Jr. Lightweight 2008
Height: 5’6 ½
Weight: 144 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 134.7 lbs.
Hails from: General Santos City, Cotabato del Sur, Philippines
Record: 49-3-2, 37 KO
Record in Title Fights: 11-1-2, 9 KO, 1 KOBY
Major Belts Held: WBC Flyweight 1998-99, 1 Defense; IBF Jr. Featherweight 2001-03, 4 Defenses; Ring Featherweight 2003-05, 2 Defenses; WBC/Ring Jr. Lightweight 2008; WBC Lightweight, 2008-09
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 10 (Chatchai Sasakul, Lehlo Ledwaba, Jorge Eliecer Julio, Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales, Oscar Larios, Juan Manuel Marquez, David Diaz, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat or Draw: 4 (Medgoen Singsurat, Agapito Sanchez, Juan Manuel Marquez, Erik Morales)
Pre-Fight Grades
Speed – Cotto B; Pacquiao A+
Power – Cotto B+; Pacquiao B+
Defense – Cotto B-; Pacquiao B+
Intangibles – Cotto B+; Pacquiao A
There are multiple dimensions to examine in the fight, but the one which should be the most instantly visible once the bell rings is Pacquiao’s speed. He might be the fastest fighter in the game right now and, as a proven power puncher, that makes him even more deadly. For Cotto to win, he has to find a way to mitigate Pacquiao’s speed advantage and it is to his benefit that he’s seen world class speed before.
While stylistically much different fighters than Pacquiao, Shane Mosley and Zab Judah both held advantages over Cotto in speed and left the ring defeated. It is ironic to note that Cotto’s lone loss came to man who was significantly slower of hand. Cotto handled speed the old fashioned way. He threw his jab hard, straight and regularly. In doing so, he kept either man from getting into a considerable rhythm and he’ll need the same tool this weekend.
In rhythm, Pacquiao is simply devastating but knocked off his flow Pacquiao can become over anxious and open himself to counters. It was the case in both bouts with Juan Manuel Marquez and the loss to Erik Morales. Cotto, banging to the ribs and landing hooks and crosses to the head through those openings would be the hardest shots Pacquiao has ever taken in the ring.
What Pacquiao is landing will matter as well. A lot.
He’s going to hit Cotto. That much is certain. Whether he’ll hit Cotto harder than Cotto has been hit before is open to debate. An A+ puncher in pound for pound terms, Pacquiao may not be the same puncher at Welterweight he has been elsewhere. Against De La Hoya, he landed nearly at will but De La Hoya kept his feet through all nine rounds before surrendering in the corner. He was wobbled a few times, but it took an accumulation of punishment, an overwhelming. Pacquiao is capable of doing the same to Cotto…and Cotto has never show the same kind of chin De La Hoya had.
Mosley had him rocked late and Judah stunned him more than once. While campaigning at Jr. Welterweight, Cotto was nearly out on his feet against DeMarcus Corley and pushed to the brink as he traded knockdowns with Ricardo Torres. Of interest here, Judah and Corley are southpaws. Cotto persevered against both to score stoppages, the Corley win with some controversy, but neither Judah nor Corley is quite the finisher Pacquiao has been. There is a chance that Cotto will be hit so quickly, so suddenly, that he provides a bookend highlight to go with Pacquiao’s impressive knockout of Ricky Hatton in May.
Pacquiao will need to start fast and keep the pressure on. Much has been made of whether Cotto is at all mentally damaged by the beating he took from Margarito. There were moments against Clottey over the summer where he appeared to be buckling. To his credit, Cotto sucked it up and fought hard down the stretch. Against Clottey, as it had been with Mosley and Judah, his fists worked him back into the fight and slowed assaults. Pacquiao is a whirl of perpetual motion; if he can’t time it right to get his fists on the challenger, Cotto is in trouble.
Defensively, Pacquiao is better than Mosley and more consistent that Judah. His head movement could frustrate Cotto and, if Cotto isn’t landing while being peppered, he is likely to be discouraged. His own transition issues on defense won’t help. Cotto is not fluid in moving from offense to defense. He visibly halts, switching from one to the other robotically. Pacquiao must attack during those moments.
In terms of intangibles, Pacquiao’s chin must be considered an asset though he hasn’t been caught clean by anyone bigger than a Jr. Lightweight yet. His two stoppage losses, both over a decade ago, didn’t come from punches to the chin. While Cotto’s chin can be dented, it has normally held up. Margarito broke him down completely; the stoppage was not a product of a weak chin as much as exhaustion.
There is also the cut factor. Cotto was busted open by both Margarito and Clottey. He weathered against the latter but not the former. Margarito was throwing everything he had and impairment of vision might have played a part in taking more shots than he was taking early in the bout. Even if Pacquiao doesn’t hit as hard as some natural Welterweights, it really often is the shot one doesn’t see coming which does them in. A cut would make Cotto even more susceptible.
Will the catchweight be a factor? Cotto came in at 145 lbs and didn’t look particularly dried out. He started camp early and it is assumed he will make the weight. While the existence of the catchweight has been a point of contention, it probably won’t affect the outcome. If it does, it may be in the fact that the extra time in camp, rather than properly preparing Cotto, could threaten to bring him in too prepared. If he peaked too early in camp, or was on peak and held weight too long, it could sap his legs late in a close fight.
Cotto has great heart, but we also know there is a break point. If he finds himself more tired than usual, could lingering ghosts from Margarito prove too much? Pacquiao won’t have these concerns. A break point hasn’t been seen yet in a prime Pacquiao. One assumes Pacquiao came in comfortable at 144 rather than just comfortable at an arbitrary limit.
The Pick
Pacquiao has a hell of case as the best fighter in the world. That won’t mean he’s the best Welterweight Cotto has ever seen. Two of Pacquiao’s last three victories (David Diaz at Lightweight and De La Hoya) can be dismissed to some degree. Diaz just wasn’t in Pacquiao’s league. De La Hoya wasn’t De La Hoya anymore.
Hatton? That’s a different story. While some have argued that perhaps Hatton wasn’t his best at 140 anymore, the blows Pacquiao landed would have capped Hatton on any day. The finishing blow is one of the best single shots anyone could ever hope to see and would have stopped more than just Hatton. Hatton was a Jr. Welterweight that night, but he’s taken shots from Welterweights before and never been undone in the same fashion.
That finish makes it easy to pick Pacquiao.
Cotto handling the best shots of Clottey, Mosley, and Judah make it just as easy to see it the other way.
For weeks, it was Cotto’s size, experience with larger men, underrated boxing ability, and body attack which had this scribe picking Cotto…but watching film of both men’s last few fights is having a Geto Boys result: mind’s playin’ tricks on me.
Asked to comment for the fight program a few weeks ago, the pick read: Pacquiao has a big advantage in speed but hasn't yet faced a serious Welterweight. He hit an aged De La Hoya a ton of times and couldn't drop him. Oscar wasn't hitting back. Cotto will and should be able to handle Pacquiao's early rush. When he does, he'll break down Pacquiao and stop him sometime from the eighth round forward.
Maybe that still happens and it would be no surprise if it does.
The feeling is different on the eve of the fight.
Cotto is a very good fighter. Pacquiao is a great one, and a great one in the zone. He may be on the verge of the sort of special immortality only the rarest fighters achieve. I don’t think the catchweight will ultimately be a factor; the class of fighters will.
Cotto might have a chance to make it feel like 2007 again, but the calendar just never runs backwards. Pacquiao will start fast and probably cut Cotto at some point, weathering some tough spots in the middle only to pull away for a late stoppage in a great, great fight.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
