By Cliff Rold (Ed Mulholland/FightWireImages)
Miguel Cotto should not lose this fight. Put one of the sport’s biggest current stars on his home turf, in his first real fight since the lone loss of his career, and then give him the edge in experience, depth of opposition, and amateur background…
He ‘s supposed to win.
Even with all that going, the possibility of defeat looms large.
Joshua Clottey poses a real risk, the first since Cotto knelt in the corner to surrender his undefeated record to the gloves (loaded or not…we just don’t know) of Antonio Margarito. Like Margarito a year ago, Clottey is at a moment where his whole career could literally ride on the outcome. It’s what makes this, the latest hot match in boxing’s stellar Welterweight division, a must for any real boxing fan.
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Miguel Cotto
Age: 28
Title: WBO Welterweight (2009-Present, 1st Attempted Defense)
Previous Titles: WBA Welterweight (2006-08, 4 Defenses); WBO Jr. Welterweight (2004-06, 6 Defenses)
Height: 5’7
Average Weight - Five Most Recent Fights: 146.65 lbs.
Hails from: Caguas, Puerto Rico
Record: 33-1, 27 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 13-1, 11 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 10 (Cesar Bazan, Carlos Maussa, Lovemore N’Dou, Randall Bailey, DeMarcus Corley, Ricardo Torres, Paulie Malignaggi, Carlos Quintana, Zab Judah, Shane Mosley)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Antonio Margarito)
Vs.
Joshua Clottey
Age: 32
Title: None
Previous Titles: IBF Welterweight (2008-09, 0 Defenses)
Height: 5’8
Average Weight - Five Most Recent Fights: 148.8 lbs.
Hails from: Accra, Ghana
Record: 35-2, 20 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 1-1
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 2 (Diego Corrales, Zab Judah)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 2 (Carlos Baldomir, Antonio Margarito)
Pre-Fight Grades
Speed: Cotto B; Clottey B
Power: Cotto B+; Clottey B-
Defense: Cotto B; Clottey B
Intangibles: Cotto B+; Clottey B
All of the advantages noted up top would mean little if Cotto didn’t have the skills to make them work in his favor. While both he and Clottey rate a B in terms of raw speed, Cotto features the more fluid offense. When on offense, he pops the jab and executes precision combinations to the head and body. Where Cotto is vulnerable is in transition between offense and defense. He visibly hitches while changing those gears. Against Margarito, the Mexican’s steady pressure (and plastered chin) meant that when Cotto was looking to transition, he was getting hit. Clottey may not have the same fluidity, but his left uppercut and overhand right, both off the left jab, are sharp and get there quick.
It is in Cotto’s favor that Clottey has a similar transition problem. Clottey comes forward with high held guard; it’s effective defense but also leaves him handcuffed too often. His countering options are often limited because he’s resetting after being pushed back by blocked flurries.
These flaws, and the positives that go with them, are a big reason this fight could become a war of attrition. Cotto and Clottey, particularly in the first half, will take turns teeing off. Early, not much will land flush. As the rounds tick by, the leather will multiply. While both men have pop in their shots, it isn’t the sort which ends the action early against their best foes. If there is a stoppage, it will be in Clottey’s favor as the Ghanaian has shown wicked whiskers while Cotto has been dropped or rocked a few times in his career.
Chin though is not the only intangible. Cotto has gone through well publicized training and family issues with his uncle and former trainer. Will he be comfortable in a big fight without the familiarity he’s used to? If he gets into deep water, will he fully trust the corner to lead him out of the dark spaces? It’s a big question.
So is Clottey’s ability to close.
Clottey has shown the ability to start strong with the best only to lose pace late. And those lost paces were not in wars. Margarito was a tough fight, as was Richard Gutierrez, but neither was noted for savagery. Clottey appeared simply to tire. It didn’t happen against Corrales but Corrales was a spent ring force well above his best weights. Clottey’s last bout against Zab Judah didn’t feature a fade either but that was an odd pairing of two fighters with similar reputation. Cotto has also faded late, against Margarito and in a dangerous ninth against Mosley, but he’s also shown strong finishes when hurt against Corley and Torres.
Those experiences couple with a general experience edge for Cotto. While Clottey is obviously good, and has some good wins, Cotto has had the benefit of management designed for a champion. At both Jr. Welterweight and Welterweight, he faced the most consistently tough opposition since the best years of Oscar De La Hoya. He’s had more opportunities to learn what he is and isn’t in the ring. It could matter on a pressure packed stage where the winner leaves as no less than 1A with Mosley at 147 and the loser will face serious questions about the future.
The Pick
Given the similarities in circumstance between Clottey and Margarito, combined with Clottey’s overall qualities, there is a temptation to pick the upset on Saturday night.
It’s not a temptation worth betting on. Cotto knows now what it is like to have a man in front of him who has nothing to lose but also the chance to feel threatened by losing in a way he hasn’t had before. In the end, Cotto has been in with, and beaten, superior fighters. Clottey has been in with some quality but his wins are not as strong. His toughness will carry him to the finish line and he’ll be in the fight all night but Cotto will throw more, land more, and win at least seven rounds.
That’s the magic number, sans knockdowns, for a decision win to the Puerto Rican.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
