By Cliff Rold
The vacation is over.
The return is here.
And if the images from the weigh-in are any indication, Floyd Mayweather picked wisely in selecting his comeback opponent. Juan Manuel Marquez has a name. Mayweather, who reigned as Welterweight champion before vacating the crown for some time off, looked cut and ready. Weighing in as a Welterweight for the first time, Marquez had a little extra gristle on his sides. By any other standard, he’s in phenomenal shape.
This isn’t any other standard.
It’s a Welterweight fight.
Pound for pound be damned. Marquez has always looked cut with nary an ounce of extra skin but did not at Friday’s weigh-in. There is a reason for that. A primary idea of pound for pound ratings is to consider what might happen if two fighters of different sizes were in fact the same size, keeping their relative advantages. Pound for pound, despite idiotic pronouncements of its ‘title,’ is not a weight class.
Based on the weigh-in evidence today, we’ll see one fighter comfortably at home in his domain and another trying to make do the best he can for a big payday. Can Marquez make more of it than that on Saturday?
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Floyd Mayweather
Age: 32
Titles: None
Previous Titles: Lineal/WBC Jr. Lightweight (1998-2002, 8 Defenses); Lineal/Ring/WBC Lightweight (2002-04, 3 Defenses); WBC Jr. Welterweight (2005); IBF Welterweight (2006); Lineal/Ring/WBC Welterweight (2006-08, 1 Defense); WBC Jr. Middleweight (2007)
Height: 5’8
Weight: 146 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 147.2 lbs.
Hails from: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Record: 39-0, 25 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 13 (Genaro Hernandez, Gregorio Vargas, Diego Corrales, Carlos Hernandez, Jesus Chavez, Jose Luis Castillo, DeMarcus Corley, Arturo Gatti, Sharmba Mitchell, Zab Judah, Carlos Baldomir, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton)
Vs.
Juan Manuel Marquez
Age: 36
Title: World Lightweight (2009-Present)
Previous Titles: IBF Featherweight (2003, 1 Defense); WBA/IBF Featherweight (2003-06, 3 Defenses); WBO Featherweight (2006, 1 Defense); WBC Jr. Lightweight (2007-08, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’7
Weight: 142
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 131.3 lbs.
Hails from: Mexico City, Mexico
Record: 50-4-1, 37 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 10 (Agapito Sanchez, Alfred Kotey, Daniel Jimenez, Robbie Peden, Manuel Medina, Derrick Gainer, Orlando Salido, Marco Antonio Barrera, Joel Casamayor, Juan Diaz)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 3 (Freddie Norwood, Chris John, Manny Pacquiao)
Pre-Fight Grades
Speed - Mayweather A+; Marquez B+
Power - Mayweather B; Marquez B
Defense - Mayweather A+; Marquez B+
Intangibles - Mayweather A; Marquez A
Speed is going to be the obvious physical difference in the ring on Saturday. Mayweather’s is among the finest ever seen. It might not be quite what Meldrick Taylor or Roy Jones could produce at one time, but there is no grade for that. The highest possible still can solidly go to Floyd. Marquez’s speed is not bad; it is solidly world class, and still should be with the extra pounds. It will likely be the best Floyd has seen since Zab Judah in 2006. Where Marquez succeeds is in timing his right hand and educated left uppercut. In a fight between counterpunchers, one will have to lead which could limit Marquez’s opportunities with the shot. Forced to lead against Joel Casamayor last year, Marquez was hit often by the Cuban’s left hand and it was really all Casamayor had to offer by then. Mayweather will counter with rights, left hooks, and underrated body shots. He has a full arsenal and if Marquez cannot force Mayweather to come forward where will his chances come?
Power might not seem a huge factor in a fight between two such expert technicians but it could be. Mayweather, from 130-140, often showed the ability to hurt world class fighters. Some of that was gone further up the scale against the solid chins of Carlos Baldomir and Oscar De La Hoya but it returned in the 2007 knockout of then-140 lb. king Ricky Hatton. The evidence suggests punching power which is lessened by the size of his foes, a significant note prior to Saturday. Marquez is the quintessential boxer-puncher and has shown the ability, at Featherweight and Lightweight, to grind down world class foes from Manuel Medina to Juan Diaz for knockouts as the rounds wore on. If he can continue to touch Mayweather hard, it could accumulate over the course of the fight. Both men have shown finishing ability if opportunity comes.
Mayweather had drawn some defensive comparisons with the likes of Willie Pep and Pernell Whitaker. Like those men, his defense suffers more against better foes, as it should. However, even then, he doesn’t get tagged much. Marquez does. He is a good defensive fighter but he’s never been unhittable and has been more hittable with age. It has made him more exciting than he was, by far, in his youth but could be dangerous this weekend.
In terms of intangibles, both of these men are locks for Canastota one day for a reason. They have faced their share of the best and emerged near the front of the crowd. Mayweather has been a mixed bag on the biggest stages, mesmerizing against Arturo Gatti and Diego Corrales, merely solid against the likes of De La Hoya and Baldomir. He has shown the adaptability required of the best, battling on even terms with Jose Luis Castillo through their first 21 rounds in 2002 only to solve the tough Mexican and accelerate to definitive victory late in their rematch.
Some are wondering if Mayweather struggled with weight since he didn’t make 144 lbs., but given the cryptic treatment his camp gave the catchweight all along is it possible he never intended to make the line? It is assumed Mayweather will be sharp and his layoff wasn’t that long in this era of minimal ring appearances for stars. Interestingly, these men started only four pounds apart and at one time size would have been little issue. When Marquez was a Featherweight and Mayweather a Jr. Lightweight, it would have been a slight factor in matching the two. Now? Mayweather is clearly a real Welterweight. Marquez could probably still safely make 130.
If there is an exploitable strategic weakness here, it is Marquez’s penchant to be stunned early. In struggles with Norwood and Pacquiao, he was dropped early for crucial point losses. He was badly shaken by Juan Diaz in the second round of their epic war earlier this year. Also a detriment, Marquez was dreadful when forced to lead with natural slicksters like Norwood and Derrick Gainer. He just couldn’t pull them out of their shells and into good fights. The trend might appear changed in the Casamayor win but Casamayor engaged all night. Will Marquez know how to score enough to make a mark with Mayweather?
To his credit, Marquez has the sort of chin which gets better as the rounds go by, rarely hurt by the same shots in round ten he might have been in round one. Mayweather has been hurt by two men, DeMarcus Corley and Zab Judah (who scored what appeared a brief glove-scrapes-the-floor knockdown though it was not so scored) but recuperated quickly.
The Pick
Of all the aspects of this fight discussed, it is Marquez’s early vulnerability which may decide this fight. Mayweather has been a savvy matchmaker from as far back as 2003 and knows what the BIG fight really is. He will know the chances that could be there. A knockout of Marquez is the ultimate fuel for the fire of what could be Superfight 2010: Mayweather-Pacquiao. Mayweather will have his chances to hurt Marquez early with a right Marquez hasn’t timed yet. If he does, Mayweather has the flurrying ability to overwhelm the smaller man and force a stoppage. A knockout in the first three or four rounds is not out of the question.
If it does not come, Floyd will at least have enough in the bank to play for the scorecards. It could get tedious, but it will be successful though Marquez should do enough to push Floyd if it gets into the second half. No matter the aesthetics, Mayweather wins and pretty decisively.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
