What is a prospect in the modern landscape of boxing? The one constant is that, once a fighter moves to contender status taking 50-50 fights, the ceiling for their career is solidified.
It is no secret that boxing is changing. The way people watch fights via streaming, compared to when traditional television distribution was the only access a fan had to see good bouts. One thing is certain, now more than ever, the jump from being a prospect to a contender seems more muddier than ever and very subjective.
When thinking about a prospect from a writer’s standpoint, is their age a defining feature? Is it the number of fights? Is it being listed in the rankings? It seems nothing is set in stone. Each benchmark we use as a guide has exceptions.
Robert Diaz, President of Sheer Sports, and the former Golden Boy Promotions matchmaker developed a lot of fighters in his era as a matchmaker. Diaz helped develop the career of Lamont Roach Jnr, who recently fought to a draw with WBA lightweight titleholder Gervonta Davis on pay-per-view. Though he didn’t guide the entire process, he laid the foundation and built the experience that developed Roach into a title contender. Diaz helped set the groundwork for what he believes a prospect is.
“In general, the American who turns pro at 18-20 years-old, still has that prospect growth,” Diaz told BoxingScene. “The first two or three years you get them from pro debut to around 15 fights, fights that they're supposed to win, and then they become a prospect from that third year to the fourth year. Then, hopefully, from the fourth to the fifth, they become a contender, where they are getting ready to fight for the world title.”
The last decade has seen some elite fighters fast-tracked to a title, like Vasiliy Lomachenko, who fought for a title in his second professional fight. A lot of fighters with deep amateur pedigrees are now also being fast-tracked in ways that are reshaping how we view prospects.
Israil Madrimov, a former international amateur standout from Uzbekistan, turned professional in a 10-round fight against Vladimir Hernandez. That isn’t a common thing for most prospects to do. Diaz cited two examples of prospects from his experience developing fighters, the first being former titleholder and 2012 U.S. Olympian Joseph Diaz Jnr.
“JoJo Diaz is a good example. When he was going to fight his first world title fight, he was the No.1 contender in the WBC and the WBO,” Diaz said. “He chose the WBC because he said Gary Russell's the better champion. He wanted to win the world title and be recognized as the guy. I got to respect that. I respected his confidence. At the time he was undefeated, he passed every test we put in front of him. There was no reason to doubt him.”
Those tests are the undercard preliminary bouts that have astute matchmakers carefully ramping up competition. Putting a fighter in with a southpaw, a power-puncher, a brilliant boxer, or against fighters who have lost a fight or two, but have some danger for the prospect or fringe contender. The fighters who pass each test or excel are the ones who move onto the main card and main event taking on the impactful opponents of the generation. Despite Diaz not beating Gary Russell Jnr, Diaz saw something in his first career loss that was a positive when he fought for the title.
“He came up short with Gary Russell, but it wasn't like he didn't belong there,” Diaz said. “Sometimes you see these guys come in with great records. They are undefeated, but they haven't fought anybody. Now, all of a sudden, they're fighting for a world title against the top guy in the division. They get blown out. They get blown out because they didn't pass the tests. They just built a pretty record. That's the difference.”
Diaz of Downey, California would go on to defeat Tevin Farmer and win the IBF junior lightweight title to start 2020. Diaz has had a rough go as of late, going 1-6 in seven fights dating back to 2021 when he lost to Devin Haney. He has moved up two weight classes, bouncing between lightweight and junior welterweight. Diaz is now 32 years old with a record of 33-7-1 (15 KOs). Diaz’s story demonstrates the development of a good young fighter, but also shows how success can be fleeting even when a great path is set. It also shows why the jump from prospect to contender is often elongated. Once a fighter makes the leap to the top of the division, the match-ups stay at a world-class level.
Then, Robert Diaz brought up Frankie Gomez, who retired undefeated at 21-0 (13 KOs) and has not fought since he defeated Mauricio Herrera in May 2016. No one had ever shut down Herrera, a known spoiler, albeit Herrera was at the end of his career, the way Gomez had. For Diaz, Gomez, a fighter from East Los Angeles, never fulfilled his potential.
“A good story that didn't end well was Frankie Gomez,” Diaz said. “Frankie Gomez was a tremendous prospect coming out of the gate. Everybody knew who he was from an amateur and promised him everything and it didn't fulfill the dream.”
While it is unclear what a prospect is, perhaps it is clearer what the path for a prospect has to be. The need for development is important, but the fighter’s lifestyle, choices and commitment to the sport come into play. A great matchmaker can build a path to success, but it is up to each fighter to forge their unique path of greatness in their own right.
"It's not what happened in the ring; it's what happened outside the ring,” Diaz said.
Lucas Ketelle is the author of “Inside the Ropes of Boxing,” a guide for young fighters, a writer for BoxingScene and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Find him on X at @BigDogLukie.