By Lyle Fitzsimmons, photo by Premier Boxing Champions
There are a couple things I’ve always promised myself.
I barely play golf. But if I was ever lucky enough to score a hole in one, I’ve vowed to pluck the ball out of the cup, slide the club into the bag and head straight to my car – because it’ll never get any better.
Same goes for bowling. I consider myself a decent bowler, but If I ever was lucky enough to string together 12 strikes, I’d unlace my shoes, put down my beer and never set foot in another alley.
Problem is, I’ve never followed that advice when it’s come to boxing.
Though I probably hit my high prediction watermark a few years ago when I said – on the eve of 2011 – that Andre Ward would prove to be that year’s best fighter, it hasn’t stopped me from trying to replicate the success in each of four tries since.
And, needless to say, I’ve never been nearly as prescient.
Which once again leaves me with the final-column-of-December task of having to recap the claims I made at this time last year, when I was sure I knew precisely what would happen in 2016.
Ladies and gentlemen, I present Fitz’s Hits and Misses – Edition 6.
Upset of the Year
The 12/15 Pick: Bradley W 12 Pacquiao
The 12/16 Reality: Corrales KO 2 Uchiyama
The Grade: F
No, it had nothing to do with Teddy Atlas.
Though Timothy Bradley was supposedly rejuvenated by his union with the ex-trainer of Mike Tyson and Michael Moorer, that wasn’t why I was sure he would beat Manny Pacquiao when they met in April.
I thought he’d win because he was very good, he was younger and he had more left in the tank.
But by the time I left Las Vegas, it was clear that I’d been duped.
Not only was Bradley not nearly what I’d expected him to be, but Pacquiao was far better than the version of himself that had been schooled by Floyd Mayweather Jr. about 11 months earlier.
Yep, Floyd’s that good. And yep, maybe Teddy’s that overrated.
Regardless, when it comes to upsets that actually did end up occurring, it’d take a lot to make me believe that a guy who’d never fought outside Panama – Corrales – would lay out a champion like Uchiyama who’d starched all but four of his victims and was making his 12th title defense.
Knockout of the Year
The 12/15 Pick: Porter KO 8 Thurman
The 12/16 Reality: N’Jikam KO 1 Blanco
Grade: F
If you haven’t seen it, I suggest an immediate side trip to YouTube.
Because ex-middleweight title challenger Hassan N’Dam N’Jikam’s blast-out of mid-December foe Alfonso Blanco was everything that’s both exciting and terrifying about the sport we love.
The right hand landed by N’Jikam left Blanco suspended briefly before he collapsed face-first and began convulsing in gruesome fashion. It was by no means indicative that the twice-vanquished wannabe at 160 pounds was ready for the championship class, but it did indicate he can whack.
As for my pre-2016 suggestion that Shawn Porter would erase Keith Thurman in highlight fashion… forget it.
Fight of the Year
The 12/15 Pick: Garcia-Guerrero
The 12/16 Reality: Ward-Kovalev
The Grade: C
OK, it was a decent fight.
When a combat-friendly fighter like Danny Garcia faced off with violence-thirsty Robert Guerrero, it wasn’t a stretch to suggest that it might be worthy of year-end remembrances.
But while Garcia’s grueling January decision over another of Mayweather’s ex-foes did prove his chops at 147 pounds, it was far outshone by a number of others for consideration this week.
The pick here goes to the light heavyweight fight between Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev.
I’ll concede that several other fights had more toe-to-toe action, but none matched a sustained level of violence along with the must-see element of the best fighter in a division meeting his most worthy challenger.
Fighter of the Year
The 12/15 Pick: Andre Ward
The 12/16 Reality: Vasyl Lomachenko
The Grade: C
Leave it to Andre Ward to come to my rescue.
Just like he did while validating my prediction approach several years ago, the soft-spoken Californian did precisely what was asked of him in 2016 when it comes to a fighter of the year candidacy.
But the feeling here is that it just wasn’t enough.
Though Ward will end the year as the premier entry at 175 pounds, the mere fact that there’s so much legitimate dissension surrounding the verdict of the Kovalev fight takes some of the oomph from his bid.
I had it 114-113 for Ward, but can understand those who suggest he was nipped.
Meanwhile, Vasyl Lomachenko left no room for discussion.
The Ukrainian was already a primetime player at 126 pounds entering 2016, but his wins at 130 this year over Rocky Martinez and Nicholas Walters were so convincing that they not only made him a top commodity at a new weight -- not to mention in the sport’s all-encompassing pound-for-pound race.
Unification seems a formality if fights are arranged, but Lomachenko’s vision ought to be on a higher plane, where names like Mikey Garcia, Terence Crawford and Manny Pacquiao reside.
He’s just that good.
* * * * * * * * * *
This week’s title-fight schedule:
FRIDAY
IBF junior flyweight title – Tokyo, Japan
Akira Yaegashi (champion/No. 3 IWBR) vs. Wittawas Basapean (unranked WBA/unranked IWBR)
Yaegashi (24-5, 12 KO): Second title defense; Also held titles at 105 (WBA) and 112 (WBC) pounds
Basapean (31-5, 12 KO): Second title fight (0-1); Unbeaten in 14 fights since 2014 (14-0, 7 KO)
Fitzbitz says: The champion is more experienced, has fought better opposition and has, most importantly, had far more success against fighters on the top level. That’ll show. Yaegashi by decision
WBO junior bantamweight title – Tokyo, Japan
Naoya Inoue (champion/No. 3 IWBR) vs. Kohei Kono (No. 10 WBO/No. 12 IWBR)
Inoue (11-0, 9 KO): Fourth title defense; Also held title (WBC) at 108 pounds
Kono (32-9-1, 13 KO): Tenth title fight (4-4-1); Two reigns as WBA champ at 115 pounds
Fitzbitz says: Inoue’s got bigger fights on his long-term agenda, but he’s not in with a pushover here. Don’t expect an upset, but do expect at least some level of competition before it ends. Inoue in 9
SATURDAY
IBF junior featherweight title – Kyoto, Japan
Jonathan Guzman (champion/No. 6 IWBR) vs. Yukinori Oguni (No. 5 IBF/No. 7 IWBR)
Guzman (22-0, 22 KO): First title defense; Third fight scheduled for 12 rounds (2-0, 2 KO - 19 rounds)
Oguni (18-1-1, 7 KO): First title fight; Unbeaten in nine fights since 2013 (8-0-1, 5 KO)
Fitzbitz says: Guzman’s 22-fight KO streak almost seems too good to be true, but he seems in a good spot here against a foe who’s not done much on the championship level. Guzman in 7
WBA super featherweight title -- Tokyo, Japan
Jezreel Corrales (champion/No. 5 IWBR) vs. Takashi Uchiyama (No. 2 WBA/No. 6 IWBR)
Corrales (20-1, 8 KO): First title defense; Dethroned Uchiyama in Tokyo in April (KO 2)
Uchiyama (24-1-1, 20 KO): Fourteenth title fight (11-1-1); Three straight wins by stoppage (14 rounds)
Fitzbitz says: Corrales sprung perhaps the year’s biggest upset when he dumped Uchiyama in two rounds just eight months ago. It won’t be an upset if the roles get reversed here. Uchiyama in 6
WBA flyweight title – Kyoto, Japan
Kazuto Ioka (champion/No. 3 IWBR) vs. Yutthana Kaensa (No. 1 WBA/No. 29 IWBR)
Ioka (20-1, 12 KO): Fourth title defense; Also held titles at 105 (WBA/WBC) and 108 (WBA) pounds
Kaensa (15-0, 6 KO): First title fight; First fight outside of Thailand
Fitzbitz says: A three-division champion faces an undefeated opponent here, but a guy who’s built that spotless record against suspect competition in Thailand. The difference will matter. Ioka by decision
WBA light flyweight title – Tokyo, Japan
Ryoichi Taguchi (champion/No. 7 IWBR) vs. Carlos Canizales (No. 3 WBA/No. 20 IWBR)
Taguchi (25-2-1, 11 KO): Fifth title defense; Unbeaten in seven fights since 2013 (7-0, 3 KO)
Canizales (16-0, 13 KO): First title fight; First fight outside of Venezuela
Fitzbitz says: Canizales is a dangerous puncher with a chance to beat a guy who’s been beaten in the past, but it says here that Taguchi is the classier of the two combatants. Taguchi by decision
Vacant WBO junior flyweight title – Gifu, Japan
Moises Fuentes (No. 1 WBO/No. 5 IWBR) vs. Kosei Tanaka (No. 2 WBO/No. 9 IWBR)
Fuentes (24-2-1, 13 KO): Sixth title fight (3-1-1); Unbeaten in five fights since 2014 (5-0, 3 KO)
Tanaka (7-0, 4 KO): Third title fight (2-0); Held title (WBO) at 105 pounds
Fitzbitz says: Tanaka was another of those fighters who grabbed a title in his first handful of bouts, and he gets a chance at a second title in fight No. 8 here. Fuentes won’t go easy, but he’ll go. Tanaka in 10
Last week's picks: None
2016 picks record: 89-24 (78.7 percent)
Overall picks record: 822-272 (75.1 percent)
NOTE: Fights previewed are only those involving a sanctioning body's full-fledged title-holder – no interim, diamond, silver, etc. Fights for WBA "world championships" are only included if no "super champion" exists in the weight class.
Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. He is a full voting member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Reach him at fitzbitz@msn.com or follow him on Twitter – @fitzbitz.

