By Cliff Rold
For most of the last twenty years, we have been able to count on the area of the scale once considered classic featherweight. 122 and 126 lbs. have delivered too many times to count. We thought it might earlier this year in a unification clash between Carl Frampton and Scott Quigg. Frampton boxed too well for too long to let a classic break out.
Leo Santa Cruz is the kind of fighter who tends to make fights break out. He physically insists that leather be thrown. With renewed esteem after his win over Abner Mares last year, this is his chance to truly etch himself among the elite.
The same chance is there for Frampton.
Let us hope they add to a great tradition as we go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Leo Santa Cruz
?Age: 27
Title: WBA “Super” featherweight (2015-Present, 1 Defense)
Previous Titles: IBF bantamweight (2012-13, 3 Defenses); WBC super bantamweight (2013-Present, 4 Defenses)
Height: 5’7 ½
Weight: 125 ½ lbs.?
?Hails from: Rosemead, California (Born in Mexico)
Record: 32-0-1, 18 KO
Rankings: #1 (ESPN, Boxing Monthly, BoxRec), #2 (BoxingScene, Ring), #4 (TBRB)
Record in Major Title Fights: 11-0, 6 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 6 (Eric Morel TKO5; Alexander Munoz TKO5; Victor Terrazas KO3; Cristian Mijares UD12; Abner Mares MD12; Kiko Martinez TKO5)
Vs.
Carl Frampton
Age: 29
Current Title: IBF super bantamweight (2014-Present, 3 Defenses)
Previous Titles: WBA super bantamweight (2015)
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125 lbs.
Hails from: Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom
Record: 22-0, 14 KO
Rankings: All at 122 lbs. - #1 (BoxingScene, TBRB, BoxRec), #2 (ESPN, Ring, Boxing Monthly)
Record in Major Title Fights: 4-0, 1 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 4 (Steve Molitor TKO6; Kiko Martinez TKO9, UD12; Hugo Cazares KO2; Scott Quigg SD12)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Santa Cruz B+; Frampton B+
Pre-Fight: Power – Santa Cruz B; Frampton B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Santa Cruz B; Frampton B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Santa Cruz A; Frampton B+
The big question here is what can Frampton do to slow Santa Cruz down? It’s a question no one has answered as yet. For a spell, Santa Cruz was facing the sort of foe that couldn’t really try. Against Mares, he did. Against Frampton, he does.
The Irishman is a smart boxer who, unlike Santa Cruz, can win more than one way. Santa Cruz, because he throws so much, rarely gets credit for his boxing skill. Watch the Mares fight again. His inside defense was excellent. He slipped and rolled with shots and stayed right in position to land. His jab is long and hard and makes him hard to get close to with shots of your own.
But Santa Cruz has to come forward.
He might be able to back off and box for periods of time, but it’s not his mentality or best self. Frampton can come forward but he’s also fine going backwards and letting someone come to him. Against both Quigg and Kiko Martinez, he was successful doing both. When Frampton is working off the back foot, he keeps the jab popping and is accurate with counter punches.
If he can get that straight left working against Santa Cruz, he can work around the more aggressive man and force him to reset. It won’t be easy. Both men are there to be hit and we know Frampton can be buzzed. His US debut against Alejandro Gonzalez last year saw Frampton on the deck twice in the first before taking over the remainder of the fight.
Santa Cruz to date has shown a sturdy chin when he gets caught.
If Frampton is going to win, he probably has to bank enough rounds in the first eight rounds of the fight to do it. Quigg made a strong late rally, forcing Frampton to nearly double his punch output to hold on to his lead. If Santa Cruz can force that sort of pace from the start, and Frampton can’t contain him, he could be on weary legs when he needs them most.
The Pick
Style wise, this fight could end up looking a little bit like the classic first encounter between Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito. Santa Cruz might be losing rounds, as Margarito was, but winning the fight by making it hard to finish. The difference might be that Santa Cruz isn’t quite the equivalent puncher and fights with more technical control.
Neither guy is a devastating puncher so we are going to see rounds. It’s hard to separate them for raw speed but the straight shots of Frampton could get to target first. In a fight where most are looking for the activity of Santa Cruz to prevail, the thinking here is that the countering ability of Frampton makes it hard for Santa Cruz to maintain his attack. In a tough fight to call, the pick here is Frampton endures a late surge and builds enough of a points lead early to hold on for a decision that has some debate when its done.
Report Card and Staff Picks 2016: 30-10
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
