By Cliff Rold (Photo by Pavel Terekhov)
With nasty trash talk, reputations for big power, and shaky chins in opposing corners, this Saturday was supposed to promise a chance to see one of those rare human bouncing ball Heavyweight fights. The thought of a fight in the spirit of George Foreman-Ron Lyle or Michael Moorer-Bert Cooper wasn’t farfetched when considering the strengths and weaknesses of Wladimir Klitschko and former World Cruiserweight champion David Haye.
It was the first announced Heavyweight fight in years which actually seemed to spur some fan imaginings. Unfortunately, imaginations are where the showdown remains for now. Training injuries suffered by Haye left Klitschko with an open dance card on short notice.
Luckily for him, and maybe even for boxing fans, WBA titlist (in recess or whatever they are calling it right now; their belt is not on the line anyways) Ruslan Chagaev happened to be available. Strict medical requirements in Finland and history with Hepatitis B brought the curtain down on a rematch between Chagaev and the man he’d easily outboxed to win his belt, 7’1 Nicolay Valuev. The rematch had been scheduled only a few weeks before Klitschko-Haye was to take place and, already in shape, Chagaev was available and proven able to fight already under German medical standards.
With an expected crowd of 60,000-plus at the Veltins Arena in Gelsenkirchen, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany on tap, that helped. In the grander scheme of things, the standing of Klitschko and Chagaev helps as well. Wladimir is seen by most of the boxing world as the division’s number one man, waiting for just the right victory to garner him concrete position as the first true Heavyweight champion since the 2004 retirement of Lennox Lewis.
Chagaev has proven to be the best Heavyweight in the world not in the Klitschko family, with only Vitali Klitschko standing between he and Wladimir in the ratings. Fans lost a sure fire brawl but got higher quality in terms of Heavyweight accomplishment.
Will the world be happy with the outcome? It’s the biggest question about Saturday’s match. Nightmares about the dreadful which was Klitschko’s unification showdown in 2008 against Sultan Ibragimov, a twelve round bore where Ibragimov appeared interested only in standing far enough away not to get knocked out and Klitschko appeared okay with letting him. Standing an inch shorter than the 6’2 Ibragimov and sharing his southpaw stance, Chagaev can claim many of the assets Ibragimov did in terms of solid fundamentals but many fear he will also make the intellectual choice of survival over risk in pursuit of victory.
It might not be a fair assessment, but it’s not altogether unfair either. Is there a chance this one could defy the skeptics and produce a fight which earns the right to fill the lineal Heavyweight championship of the world?
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Wladimir Klitschko
Age: 33
Titles: IBF (2006-Present, 6 Defenses); WBO (2008-Present, 2 Defenses); 6 Total defenses
Previous Titles: WBO (2000-03, 5 Defenses)
Height: 6’6 ½
Weight: 240 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 242.75
Hails from: Kiev, Ukraine
Record: 52-3, 46 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 13-2, 11 KO, 2 KOBY
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 6 (Chris Byrd, Ray Mercer, Samuel Peter, Lamon Brewster, Sultan Ibragimov, Hasim Rahman)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 2 (Corrie Sanders, Lamon Brewster)
Vs.
Ruslan Chagaev
Age: 30
Title: WBA (2007-Present, 2 Defenses)
Height: 6’1
Weight: 225 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 228.85 lbs.
Hails from: Andizhan, Uzbekistan
Record: 25-0-1, 17 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 3-0, 1 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 2 (John Ruiz, Nicolay Valuev)
Pre-Fight Grades
Speed: Klitschko B; Chagaev B
Power: Klitschko A; Chagaev B
Defense: Klitschko B; Chagaev B
Intangibles: Klitschko B; Chagaev B
After Friday’s weigh-in, it’s safe to say Klitschko is in shape. It is no surprise; he always is. Whatever criticism can be leveled at the younger of the two massive Ukrainian brothers in terms of excitement in the ring or past failings, no one can ever doubt his professionalism.
No one can doubt Chagaev has gotten himself into the best shape he’s been in for some time either. 225 is the lowest weight for Chagaev since 2004. It speaks to the camp he had for the Valuev rematch and the extra weeks he’s had for this one. Having suffered an Achilles injury in 2008, the lighter load could help in a fight where footwork will be key.
Both men are quick handed for Heavyweights but their speed is of a different variety. Klitschko, a 1996 Olympic Gold medalist, is the less fluid athlete of the two, but he’s by far larger and stronger and his punches are crisp and straight. He might not get there faster, but he has so much length that it doesn’t matter; he often still gets there first. Whether he is fighting going forward or leaning on his back foot, Klitschko knows how to time his offense and control distance.
Chagaev can create a puzzle because, as he showed against Valuev, he knows how to fight a taller man. The southpaw used steady lateral movement, always moving off the right jab or steady one-two combinations. He looked quicker in that fight than he probably is if only because Valuev is so ponderous and slow, but he is not slow regardless. Two World Amateur titles speak to a fighter who knows how to pile up points and move his hands.
The power edge is decided for Klitschko. When he lands his long right flush, or even his improved left hook, it can sound like a rifle shot. Chagaev may have the nickname “White Tyson,” but the reference to Iron Mike has always been giggle inducing. He’s scored only one knockout since stepping up his game against Virchis and that was produced through a steady beating of the tough but overmatched Michael Sprott. It’s not say he can’t hurt Klitschko though. His straight left hand can be sudden when brought behind the jab.
To make it work, Chagaev will need to be effective defensively. Like many Eastern Bloc fighters, he has a tight guard and applies good head movement. Klitschko’s defense often relies on using his long arms to deflect shots or tying his man up in close. Chagaev will need to slip inside and get off before he’s locked up or this could turn into a pattern fight early on.
There have been comparisons to Ibragimov in regards to both Chagaev’s chances and the aesthetics of this one. In looking at bout intangibles, there are reasons to eschew such comparisons. Chagaev has been a gamer, turning in big performances against his biggest challenges. He’s also got a nastier disposition in the ring; he’s more willing to take chances but can also go to sleep offensively if he finds it easy to peck and paw to victory. So far, Chagaev has shown a healthy beard and he’ll know Klitschko is dangerous. It could bring out a fiercer game.
Klitschko will always be a question mark. As good as he can look, his losses have all been disasters of varying sorts and he sometimes fights with a timidity unbecoming of a giant. If Chagaev gets the left home early, will Klitschko panic in front of the biggest crowd of his career? It’s worth asking.
The Pick
Klitschko-Chagaev is going to be a surprisingly tough and entertaining fight, the expected chess match but with more leather than skeptics believe. Chagaev is not Ibragimov; he will not settle for just hearing the final bell. It will put him in harm’s way but increase the potential for harm to Klitschko as well. The upset is possible…it just doesn’t feel likely. The two losses Klitschko has had since rising to the championship level, Sanders and Brewster, came against a flame thrower who got him right away and an all guts warrior willing to suffer for a window. Chagaev might be too smart for the latter and doesn’t appear to have the pop for the former. Klitschko on the other hand will hit him harder than Chagaev has ever faced and if Chagaev doesn’t force a wicked pace, Klitschko will be able to hold energy in the queue. The advantages just seem to favor Klitschko and so does this pick, probably by decision but a late stoppage is not impossible.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
