By CompuBox
Two of boxing’s hardest punching young junior middleweights will cross paths March 7 in a place appropriately called "The Tank" in San Jose when James Kirkland meets Joel Julio in a scheduled 10 rounder.
When analyzing this fight, several aspects immediately leap to mind:
The southpaw factor: Both of Julio’s losses were against southpaws – and Kirkland is left-handed. Carlos Quintana went on to win the WBO welterweight title while Dzinziruk is the current WBO titlist. Incidentally, Julio turned down a package worth $125,000 to face another lefty – Sergio Martinez – on Boxing After Dark last October in favor of fighting Dzinziruk in Germany Nov. 1 for $69,000. But while Quintana, Dzinziruk and Martinez are tricky stylists, Kirkland is an aggressive volume-puncher who will be more available to field Julio’s bombs.
Output: Quintana’s slickness neutralized Julio as he limited him to 42.8 punches per round, including 7.7 percent of his jabs and 24.1 percent of his power shots. Meanwhile, Quintana stayed busy (61.5 punches per round) and managed to land more power shots (116-77) at a higher rate (30 percent to 24). Dzinziruk, a tall sharpshooter, managed to keep Julio retreating, but because Dzinziruk was more aggressive, Julio launched 83.3 punches per round. Dzinziruk’s solid defense blunted Julio’s offense as the South American landed 18 percent overall (Julio missed 820 of his 1000 attempted punches). Julio also landed just 11 percent of his jabs and 23.4 percent of his power shots. While Dzinziruk averaged just 50 punches per round, his excellent power-shot accuracy (52.2 percent) carried him to a comprehensive margin on the scorecards. The Champ outlanded the fading Julio 84-31 in total punches over the last four rounds- that’s an average of just 8 landed punches per round for Julio down the stretch.
Kirkland is an offensive machine. In six fights tracked by CompuBox since 2003, Kirkland averaged 84.3 punches per round (far above the divisional average of 58.8) and connected on 45.1 percent of his power shots. In his two most recent fights against Brian Vera (KO 8) and Ricardo Cortes (KO 2), Kirkland threw 71.3 punches per round, landed 50.6 percent of them overall and 59 percent of his power shots. He also sports an active and accurate jab, unusual for a power puncher and a lefty. Against Vera and Cortes he averaged 29.6 jabs per round, landing 11.5 for 38.9 percent accuracy. Against southpaws Dzinziruk and Quintana, Julio landed just 9.8 percent of his jabs but they, in turn, connected on 21.3 percent of their jabs.
Experience: The strength of schedule for both has been excellent. Julio’s last four foes (Dzinziruk, Jose Varela, Ishe Smith and Cornelius Bundrage) had a combined 103-7 mark (.936) while Kirkland’s (Vera, Cortes, Eromosele Albert and Allen Conyers) is 70-6 (.921). In terms of styles, however, Julio has dealt with a wider variety while Kirkland has faced men with more agreeable approaches.
Prediction: With a combined 52 knockouts in 58 wins this will be a fun fight and a short night. The equation is simple: Kirkland has shined against aggressors and Julio has struggled with lefties and faded in the late rounds vs. Quintana and Dzinziruk. Kirkland has yet to face a puncher like Julio, and his chin will be tested. I believe it will pass the exam. Kirkland by eighth-round TKO.
