By Cliff Rold
Arguments continue about whether the fight is necessary, certainly about whether it will be any good once the bell rings, but very few have examined the standard nature of it. The best of new, young champions often are forced to face their future fate early on by facing down the man who walked their road first. All champions get old and it is often their heirs who introduce them to the concept with finality.
In the case of 43-year old former World Middleweight champion Bernard Hopkins (48-5-1, 32 KO), the man who was meant to push him into the sunset didn’t get the job done. Jermain Taylor may officially have ended the decade of Hopkins dominance at 160 lbs. in 2005, but the feat wasn’t accomplished without controversy. Many felt Hopkins won the first, and the second, of those clashes and there was fair argument to be made on both occasions. This scribe walked away feeling Hopkins had won the first and drawn in the second, neither result taking much away from the elder statesman.
Taylor never quite got past those impressions, parlaying the success against Hopkins into an uninspiring string of three defenses until his reign ended concussively at the hands of the current king of the Middleweights, 26-year old Kelly Pavlik (34-0, 30 KO), in 2007. This Saturday, Pavlik steps up ten pounds into a catchweight to face Hopkins, nominally at Light Heavyweight, realistically at a juncture in history.
Before a man can truly be the king, he must decisively beat the formerly crowned and Pavlik looks this weekend to stamp out the final periods and exclamation points of a storied chapter in a storied division. It is a fight with parallels to days long gone, to clashes like Ezzard Charles-Joe Louis, Carlos Monzon-Emile Griffith and Mike Tyson-Larry Holmes. Before Pavlik can truly be the man of tomorrow, he has to prove yesterday has truly passed.
Can he do it?
Let’s go to the report card.
Speed: Were Hopkins younger, this advantage would be his decisively. In the first few rounds this weekend at the Atlantic City Boardwalk Hall, it might still be. He was still quick enough, good enough, to catch Joe Calzaghe blind last April, dropping him for a short count in the first round. Pavlik isn’t an especially fast handed fighter. He doesn’t need to be. Pavlik has decent speed which is increased by two components: he’s got great timing and he’s accurate. It speaks to a finely honed ring maturity, to quality handling on the road to the title. He knows what to throw and when to throw it. It will serve him well if Hopkins holds to recent form. Pavlik can be counted on to be throwing punches in bunches all night; Hopkins dishes out punches like Depression-era rations in the last few years, meaning Pavlik only need not be careless of single shots rather than multiples. Pre-Fight Grades: Hopkins B; Pavlik B
Power: It’s sometimes forgotten, but Hopkins began his career with a reputation as a puncher. It took time for the scientific master to emerge and even more time for the defense first, offense fourth version of Hopkins to emerge. It is a credit to his greatness, his ability to continually remake himself, but it’s not always fun to watch. Style changes don’t mean the power of Hopkins is still not a force. The Calzaghe knockdown was mentioned; he also scored an official drop on Antonio Tarver in 2006 and had Taylor is serious trouble late in their first fight. If he was more committed to moving his hands he might score stoppages more often. Pavlik of course is known for his power in the right now. It’s not one-punch, whiplash power; Pavlik instead employs a sledgehammer effect, breaking opponent’s bodies and wills on the road to stoppage. If, and it’s a big if given other variable, the fight came down to a single blow then the old man might still be the best bet with his more proven beard but if it comes down to attrition Pavlik must be favored. Pre-Fight Grades: Pavlik A-; Hopkins B
Defense: Those who almost dread the lack of fight which could break out this weekend point to this category. Hopkins has made his ring time longer by perfecting his defense, finding ways to stop fights from breaking out on the road to victory as he’s aged. Good for Hopkins; bad for the paying customer and, really, for Boxing. Regardless of cerebral positions about ‘sweet science,’ Boxing is still a form of fighting and Boxing matches without that element usually suck. Pavlik is better positioned than almost any other American fighter for stardom, but he’s been ill-served in 2008. He’s been on Pay-Per-View once to moderate numbers, on HBO against a ho-hum mandatory, and now back to Pay-Per-View in a fight with limited real audience potential and almost unlimited possibilities for bad word of mouth if a Hopkins show breaks out. To his credit, his own defense could come in handy. Pavlik doesn’t get enough credit for how tough he can be to catch flush. Sure, he gets hit, but he also blocks well, sliding his right glove and shoulders to pick punches off and counter. If he can steadily increase the volume of damage done off those counters, he can erode Hopkins’ defensive will and make sure the echo chamber is buzzing rather than droning Sunday morning. Pre-Fight Grades: Hopkins A; Pavlik B
Intangibles: Regardless of how entertaining he’s been in recent vintage, there is no denying the remarkable professionalism and ring character of Hopkins. He’s old school in a good way. He practices the craft of the game and never shows up out of shape. It’s why he’s still here while men younger than him faded long ago. Hopkins knows that, regardless of official weight, this is a fight which can further seal his Middleweight legacy and enhance his place in history. Does he have the legs for twelve hard rounds? That’s the big question. Against Calzaghe, Hopkins faded late and resorted to ‘flopping,’ milking questionable low blows in search of breathing time. Pavlik doesn’t have Calzaghe’s speed but he can mount pain over the course of a night behind a stiff jab and underrated body attack. Pavlik has his own proven levels of mental toughness as well. He showed real grit and star quality in getting off the deck to stop Taylor for the title and he’s only begun to experience the fighter he can be. If he can be the first man to stop Hopkins, the obvious goal, he’ll have taken a huge step forward. Pre-Fight Grades: Hopkins A; Pavlik B+
The Pick: It’s hard not to pick Pavlik here; an almost twenty year age advantage is just overwhelming. Some have brought up the ghosts of Archie Moore-Yvonne Durelle this week, but Pavlik is no Durelle. Tough as he was, Durelle was never what one would consider one of the game’s best. Pavlik is considered that with room to grow. Hopkins, the cagey veteran, will present puzzles this weekend which allow Pavlik to grow but likely not enough to lead him to defeat. This is a time honored tradition, a torch passing ceremony as much as a ring contest. Pavlik is prepared for the torch and will seize it within the distance stopping Hopkins for the first time between the tenth and twelfth rounds.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
