By Cliff Rold

As reported today at BoxingScene and Maxboxing, it appears terms were reached for a showdown between 26-year old World Middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (34-0, 30 KO) and 43-year old former World Middleweight champions Bernard Hopkins (48-5-1, 32 KO) on October 18th.  Rather than the confines of 160 lbs. where each made their name, this one looks to be headed for a catchweight of 170 lbs., just underneath the Light Heavyweight limit where Hopkins has plied his trade for the last couple years. 

The names involved will certainly pique curiosity amongst the hardcore faithful.

It’s too bad that once those names are Michael Buffer-ed at mid ring this fall, the fight could head quickly towards the peak of disaster.

The disaster would come in the form of putting the game’s most promising American draw into an almost no-win situation.  It’s only almost because in the best-case scenario, the younger Pavlik storms Hopkins, stopping him in spectacular fashion and moving Boxing past at least one of its too many old names.

Best-case, in this case, is not necessarily plausible. 

No, what is plausible is the following: a decision win or loss in a fight that gets Hopkinized.  What is ‘Hopkinized’ loyal readers might ask?  Well, go back and watch almost every Bernard Hopkins fight since he beat Felix Trinidad in 2001 and there’s the answer.  Win or lose, Hopkins specialty as he has aged is taking the fighting out of his fights.  His keen defensive intellect allows him to muddy fights.  It always has.  But unlike his peak years which featured solid punch output, Hopkins now throws in rare spurts while taking the ability away from his foes to land big shots.  What results is too often tedious and rarely fun to observe.

So there’s the risk of low entertainment right off the bat.  That’s before getting to the distribution. 

This fight is so far slated for pay-per-view, taking Pavlik away from the widest possible audience for the second of what one presumes will now be his three 2008 appearances.  His first fight of the year, a pay-per-view non-title rematch with Jermain Taylor in February, did a tepid buy rate.  His second fight, on HBO, did less than awe inspiring ratings for a mandatory against a no-hope Gary Lockett who played the part of such billing.  Now he finishes against a Hall of Fame name that has never been a massive draw. 

Compare that to the relatively strong ratings Pavlik’s win over Taylor in their first fight did and a dilemma presents itself.  Pavlik entered 2008 with momentum and the chance to grow his audience.  Assuming he beats Hopkins, Pavlik’s two biggest wins will have been fought in front of your standard hardcore base of pay-tv buyers.  If the second of those costly shows devolves into the plausible, Pavlik could end the year without having added a single fan to those who saw his great 2007 run and with the chance to have lost some of the new eyes he picked up last year via absence from their sight.

Add on something that has nothing to do, directly, with Pavlik-Hopkins.  On the current HBO pay schedule for the rest of the year are four main events with only one, Miguel Cotto-Antonio Margarito next week, promising guaranteed thrills.  The other two, Joel Casamayor-Juan Manuel Marquez and Joe Calzaghe-Roy Jones, both have serious problems on paper.  Marquez’s history with slick, mobile southpaws (i.e. Derrick Gainer and Freddie Norwood) does not bode well for well received action.  Calzaghe-Jones might be better than anyone thinks it will be, but odds are it gets ugly as Jones perceived bad legs and worse chin put him in harm’s way. 

So of approximately $200 of extra fees, fans who buy all four run the risk of being disappointed to the tune of about two tanks of petro.  History has made clear that consistent streams of pay-per-view fights that don’t deliver reduce future buyers.  Lately, as HBO ratings have dropped (particularly on nights when they oppose Showtime and lose hardcore viewers who know the difference between Cotto-Gomez and Dawson-Johnson), the results say viewers are reduced by less than thrilling fare period.

Worst of all, Pavlik has a potentially great opponent at 160 right now.  Sure, Arthur Abraham (27-0, 22 KO, IBF titlist) is tied into a mandatory right now, but talk already exists today of Pavlik moving from Hopkins to Calzaghe.  It is talk in the wrong direction, making the distance to Pavlik-Abraham a longer instead of shorter road.  Pavlik needs to be in with fighters that bring out his best, to be in with an opponent who can produce another Fight of the Year candidate like his first bout with Taylor.  Pavlik needs a fight that is still generating buzz after the final bell.  As great as Hopkins and Calzaghe have been, neither of them is likely to bring a war out of Pavlik quite like Abraham.  

Kelly Pavlik should be strapped to the rocket of superstardom right now.  This is not the fuel he needs.  As fight time approaches, there will be good things to say about Pavlik-Hopkins from the perspective of things like big-picture Middleweight history.  There could even be some good straight hype to build narrative around.  None of that changes the potential for ugliness in a Hopkins fight and the additional loss of momentum towards a broader public appreciation that would not only help Pavlik but the entire sport.

An opponent with a penchant for boring; another small audience; and the possibility that one of the best fights available in Boxing could be farther away.  It’s hard to see a silver lining in any of this. 

How is this good for Boxing?

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com