by Cliff Rold
After two years, the PBC experiment arrives at the showdown that now seems always to have been destined.
Their first two network main event winners now face each other on their two-year anniversary in the biggest fight on network television in a long time. Two undefeated, prime, belted welterweights will square off with the winner taking inside track for the money that could wait on the other side. They might not be regarded as the two best welterweights in the world, but they’re the best welterweights to face off so far in 2017.
They likely will deliver boxing’s biggest domestic television audience of the year as well.
We’ve had some drama along the way; some of it tacky and offensive because, well, boxing can travel that road pretty easy. None of it matters once the bell rings.
No, once that happens it’s just two guys with gloves on while the world watches to see who will stand.
And who will fall.
Let’s go the report card.
The Ledger
Keith Thurman
Age: 28
Title: WBA Welterweight (2013-Present, 6 Defenses including interim title fights)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’7 ½
Weight: 146 ¾ lbs.
Hails from: Clearwater, Florida
Record: 27-0, 22 KO?
Record in Major Title Fights: 3-0, 1 KO (7-0, 4 KO including interim title fights)
Rankings: #2 (ESPN, Ring, BoxRec), #3 (BoxingScene, TBRB, Ring, Boxing Monthly)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 6 (Carlos Quintana TKO4; Jan Zaveck UD12; Julio Diaz RTD3; Robert Guerrero UD12; Luis Collazo RTD7; Shawn Porter)
Vs.
Danny Garcia
Age: 28
Title: WBC welterweight (2016-Present, 1st attempted defense)
Previous Titles: WBC super lightweight (2012-15, 5 Defenses); WBA “Super” super lightweight (2012-15, 4 Defenses); Lineal/TBRB/Ring World Jr. welterweight (2013-15, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’8 ½
Weight: 146 ½ lbs.
?Hails from: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Record: 33-0, 19 KO
Rankings: #3 (BoxRec), #5 (BoxingScene, ESPN, Boxing Monthly), #7 (TBRB, Ring)
Record in Major Title Fights: 7-0, 2 KO
Current/Former World Champions Faced: 8 (Nate Campbell UD10; Kendall Holt SD12; Erik Morales UD12, KO4; Amir Khan TKO4; Zab Judah UD12; Lamont Peterson MD12; Paul Malignaggi TKO9; Robert Guerrero UD12)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Thurman B+; Garcia B+
Pre-Fight: Power – Thurman A-; Garcia B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Thurman B; Garcia B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Thurman A; Garcia B+
If rust is at all an issue, it is likely to be more for Thurman than for Garcia. Thurman has been out of the ring since a violent encounter with Shawn Porter last June. It was his only start of 2016 and lone bout since July 2015. Garcia, while no model of activity, has been in the ring three times since August of 2015.
That could matter because a lot of this fight could come down to the man that can best time the rhythm of their opponent. Thurman’s fight with Porter was a crowd-pleasing affair but it was also a technical mess. Porter’s reckless abandon made for a frantic pace. Thurman did his best to control the distance Porter had to cross but ultimately he won by landing more hard shots in multiple series of exchanges.
This isn’t going to be that sort of fight.
Garcia won’t attack like Porter. That doesn’t mean he won’t come forward; he just does it at a measured pace. Thurman, behind his jab, will likely force Garcia to take the lead. Thurman can, and has, used his legs and the ring space when his opponent lets him without prolonged trading. If he can get off in quick bursts, Thurman could have Garcia hitting air while he piles up points.
It won’t be a tactic that comes with ease all night. Garcia and Thurman have similar hand speed and Garcia has enough pop to force some exchanges. It’s where he’s the most dangerous. He has a hard left hook and an educated right hand. He also goes to the body, a place where Thurman showed vulnerability in both the Porter and Collazo fights.
Thurman may have the better one-shot power but Garcia has arguably stopped and/or dropped a better caliber of foe. His advantage in knockout wins could say more about difference in overall quality of opponent prior to both men getting into contention.
In terms of intangibles, the slight edge may go to Thurman. Both have good chins so far but what about the mental angle? Thurman’s a pretty consistent fighter and, after Porter, we know he’s not shy when it gets rough. Garcia is inconsistent. Sometimes he looks great but other times he looks imminently beatable, relying on judges to bail him out in close encounters. Some guys are better when the odds are against them but that still leaves a question mark.
That question mark factors into the pick.
The Pick
Garcia is a fighter who seems to compete at the perceived level of his opponent. He was a favorite against Lamont Peterson and Mauricio Herrera and, with a little different luck, could have two losses on his record. A faded Zab Judah came on strong late and provided some scary moments while Robert Guerrero competed hard for much of their fight. In fights where he is an underdog, Garcia comes up big. He scorched Amir Khan and undid the monster mythology of Lucas Matthysse.
Garcia is the underdog this weekend.
That’s right where he wants to be. Thurman isn’t always on the offense and can box and move when he needs to. When he does let loose, he often throws wide and it could mean ample room for Garcia’s potent left. Both men can be a little rigid in the ring but Garcia is better at adjusting to opponents and timing them as a fight wears on. He also is better at landing flush, setting his feet and getting better leverage on shots.
In a close fight, the more experienced and seasoned of the two is also the one seemingly with more to prove. This feels like the kind of fight where Garcia gets another notch in his battle against the detractors, landing enough eye catching shots and winning a narrow decision in a fight that is often more tactical than brutal.
Report Card and Staff Picks 2017: 3-3
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
