By Cliff Rold
Sequels may rarely be better than a quality original, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be a hell of a lot of fun. From Rocky II to Troll 2, sequels have always found their place. Boxing, the most cinematic of all sports, is no different.
Rivalries like Arturo Gatti-Mickey Ward, Evander Holyfield-Riddick Bowe, and Ray Leonard-Tommy Hearns may have done it best the first time, but the follow ups were worthy of their source material.
A cynic can look at this weekend’s Lightweight championship affair and find room to criticize. While Juan Manual Marquez’s ninth round knockout of Juan Diaz in February 2009 ended up widely chosen as the Fight of the Year, what came after it colors the view of this weekend. Marquez moved up to Welterweight, got a nice check, and was blanked by Floyd Mayweather. Juan Diaz was outboxed twice by Jr. Welterweight Paulie Malignaggi, managing to get a split of the verdicts with the more recent perhaps the most flaccid performance of his pro life.
So what?
With all the money shelled out by fans for fights that aren’t, one thing is certain here. Marquez and Diaz will swap leather, will work hard, will fight, for as long as it lasts.
How long might that be? Can the younger man avenge defeat and embark on what appears now an improbable comeback to the championship level?
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Juan Manuel Marquez
Age: 36
Title: World Lightweight (2009-Present, 1 Defense)
Previous Titles: IBF Featherweight (2003, 1 Defense); WBA/IBF Featherweight (2003-06, 3 Defenses); WBO Featherweight (2006, 1 Defense); WBC Jr. Lightweight (2007-08, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’7
Weight: 133.5 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 133.85 lbs.
Hails from: Mexico City, Mexico
Record: 50-5-1, 37 KO
Record in Title Fights: 10-3-1, 5 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 10 (Agapito Sanchez, Alfred Kotey, Daniel Jimenez, Robbie Peden, Manuel Medina, Derrick Gainer, Orlando Salido, Marco Antonio Barrera, Joel Casamayor, Juan Diaz)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 4 (Freddie Norwood, Chris John, Manny Pacquiao, Floyd Mayweather)
Vs.
Juan Diaz
Age: 26
Titles: None
Previous Titles: WBA Lightweight (2004-07, 6 Defenses); WBA/WBO (2007, 1 Defense); WBA/IBF/WBO (2007-08)
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 135.75 lbs.
Hails From: Houston, Texas
Record: 35-3, 17 KO
Record in Title Fights: 8-2, 4 KO, 1 KOBY
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 6 (Lakva Sim, Julien Lorcy, Acelino Freitas, Julio Diaz, Michael Katsidis, Paulie Malignaggi)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 3 (Nate Campbell, Juan Manuel Marquez, Paulie Malignaggi)
Pre-Fight Grades
Speed – Marquez B+; Diaz B+
Power – Marquez B; Diaz B-
Defense – Marquez B+; Diaz B
Intangibles – Marquez A; Diaz B
The Pick
Having been stopped for the first time last year only once removed from a physical loss to Nate Campbell, questions of how much the pressuring Diaz has left are worth asking. Against Malignaggi in the rematch, he never seemed to get on track and a lost step was in evidence. Never a big puncher, Diaz’s best chances to win have come through volume punches and underrated speed. Without the latter, the former doesn’t happen against world class foes.
With the latter, it didn’t happen much into the second half of the first Marquez fight. After some early success, Diaz increasingly found Marquez hard to catch clean while playing the part of sponge for the accurate Mexican veteran. Great fighters have a way of memorizing the traits of opponents and making shorter work of them in rematches. Given his accuracy, Marquez may be able to offset the early rush and get to work even earlier the second time around. If he does, what answers will Diaz have?
The Houston native will need to be better defensively, charging with less blind fury and working towards advantageous spots. A Diaz who is thinking about countering to set up flurries would be wiser than a Diaz looking to lead.
Both men will enter rested. Diaz hasn’t fought since December, Marquez not since last September. Having the longer layoff might hurt a younger Marquez but, in this case, probably saved his legs for what could be grueling work. Even if his speed has waned a bit with age, his impeccable timing would be a surprising loss. He hasn’t shown enough wear prior to this for it to feel a realistic probability.
What does feel realistic are the stakes. Diaz needs a win, not just to be acclaimed the Lightweight king but to make sensible a future in the sport. With a college education under his belt, and talk from his professional infancy about life after boxing, Diaz has always seemed short for the ring. He’s someone with genuine possibility beyond the ring. That doesn’t mean he, as a fighter, is ready to explore them fully. 26 is a young age to ask if one is washed up; he probably doesn’t want to deal with the question.
Marquez on the other hand will want to erase the bad taste of the Mayweather loss. After agreeing to jump two classes up from a division where he had been only shortly, he found extra cash where a catch weight was supposed to be (initially, the Mayweather-Marquez fight was to be at 144 but Mayweather shelled out in the six figures and came in at 146).
While catch weight fights are a subject of much debate these days, failing to meet the weight once agreed upon is not the honorable thing. The cash was small consolation for the drubbing he took from his unprofessional foe. Marquez was proven out of his depth at Welterweight, and in a ring with Mayweather period, but it can be expected he’ll want to show Lightweight is still his and that he is still a great fighter. Marquez’s late career at Jr. Lightweight and Lightweight, after many years as a premiere Featherweight, has been marked by the performances of a man denied brass ring chances for years and delivering the goods.
Even at 36, he should still have plenty of that chip left on his shoulder.
In the end, it comes down to a great fighter versus a fighter who has been pretty good. There’s nothing wrong with pretty good. It was enough to beat solid guys like Katsidis, Diaz, and a retiring Freitas. It hasn’t been enough against skilled fighters who offer multiple dimensions. It wasn’t, and won’t be, good enough against Marquez. Diaz will start strong again but he just doesn’t have the gears he needs to switch things up and make the old master think. Diaz will work the crowd into the bout but Marquez will settle down on him earlier and the memories of recent struggles will hit like a ton of bricks. So will the right hand of Marquez, adding up to a stoppage a wee bit earlier the second time around, say in round eight.
The sequel won’t top the original but it will be worthy of its source material.
Report Card Picks 2010: 16-10
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com