By Cliff Rold

On paper, this would have sounded like a solid lead on any marquee…

…two years ago.

It’s not 2013 any more and a lot has happened since Hernan “Tyson” Marquez lost a heartbreaker in an absolute war with Giovani Segura. This is his first fight at Flyweight since, marking almost two years. Marquez was stopped by McJoe Arroyo in 2014 at 115 and barely got a draw with journeyman Ricardo Roman three fights ago.

Estrada has risen in esteem since losing to Roman Gonzalez in a fantastic Jr. Flyweight title contest in 2012. Wins over Brian Viloria and Segura have put him on a collision course for a Gonzalez rematch, arguably the most desirable Flyweight or lower contest since Michael Carbajal-Chiquita Gonzalez in 1993.

Gonzalez has business with Viloria in October. Estrada has this business at hand (BeIn Sports Espanol, 11 PM EST/8 PM PST). Will there be a hiccup here before Estrada can get his chance at revenge?
 
Let’s go to the report card.

The Ledger

Juan Francisco Estrada
Titles: WBA/WBO Flyweight (2013-Present, 4 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
Age: 25
Height: 5’4
Weight: 112 lbs.
Hails from: Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico
Record: 32-2, 23 KO
Rankings: #1 (BoxingScene, TBRB, Ring), #2 (ESPN, Boxrec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 5-1, 3 KO
Current/Former World Champions Faced: 4 (Juan Carlos Sanchez L8, TKO10; Roman Gonzalez L12; Brian Viloria MD12; Giovani Segura TKO11)

Vs.

Hernan Marquez
Age: 27
Title: None
Previous Titles: WBA Flyweight (2011-12, 2 Defenses)
Height: 5’3
Weight: 112 lbs.
Hails from: Empalme, Sonora, Mexico
Record: 39-5-1, 28 KO, 4 KOBY
Rankings: Unrated
Record in Major Title Fights: 3-1, 3 KO, 1 KOBY (3-2, 3 KO, 2 KOBY including interim title fights)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 6 (Nonito Donaire TKO by 8; Luis Concepcion TKO11, TKO1; Brian Viloria TKO by 10; Carlos Tamara UD12; Giovani Segura KO by 12; McJoe Arroyo TKO by 11)

Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Estrada B+; Marquez B 

Pre-Fight: Power – Estrada B; Marquez B

Pre-Fight: Defense – Estrada B; Marquez C

Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Estrada A; Marquez B

Marquez has shown signs of one war too many since the Segura fight and he was showing signs between the ropes in that one. Never a speed demon, he’s pushing his shots more and has struggled to get off. In the Arroyo fight, he was consistently beaten to the punch. Matched with Estrada, that’s likely to remain the case. For Marquez to find a road to victory, he will have to time his counters perfectly early and hope it pays over the course of the fight.

Could he catch Estrada looking past him? While he’s been mostly excellent since the competitive loss to Gonzalez, Estrada has had an off night. While he won almost ever rounds, Estrada looked occasionally disinterested in a non-title affair with Joebert Alvarez late last year. When men like Nacho Beristain and Juan Manuel Marquez start singing your praises as Mexico’s best champion, that can make the grunt work of waiting for a big fight a recipe for an upset.

If one is looking for Marquez’s southpaw stance to be an issue, that might be a stretch. Estrada’s first loss came to southpaw Juan Carlos Sanchez. He reversed that with a knockout. He obliterated Segura.

Defensively, both men get hit but Estrada eats a lot less. His head movement is better and he blocks shots with his gloves well. Marquez eats combinations and often gets caught with blind counters. It’s become worse with time.

Speed and power both favor Estrada at this stage as do intangibles. Estrada took shots all night from Gonzalez and stood up. He managed the power of Viloria. And, to his credit, Estrada seems to get up when the lights are brighter. In a showdown with another Sonora native, the lights should feel bright indeed.

The Pick

This has been a bit of a lost year for Estrada. This Marquez fight was originally rumored for the date that went to woeful challenger Romell Assenjo and he’ll end the year without facing a legitimate contender in contrast to other prominent Flyweights like Kazuto Ioka, Amnat Ruenroeng, and Gonzalez. It hasn’t hurt the division as much as the momentum Estrada had off wins over Viloria (2013) and Segura (2014). This would at least have name value to point to.

Maybe Marquez has been holding back, getting his game back together, since the Arroyo loss. Maybe being back at 112 will give him some bounce in his step. Marquez, who still has heavy hands, may land something big and turn the course of his career.

It’s hard to ignore the odds against him. According to Fightnews, he’s a 45-1 underdog.

If the odds are right, assume all those wars have caught up and returning to Flyweight is a bad physical idea that just made business sense. In his last three fights, Marquez has appeared plodding while Estrada has remained sharp even if he’s been fairly untested recently. Estrada is going to get off first, get off with more sting, and Marquez is going to progressively take a beating. The former titlist will show off the heart he’s known for and might have some good things to say in the first few rounds but he won’t win many. Sometime in the second half, the beating will come to a head and a stoppage or corner retirement in favor of Estrada is the pick here. Let’s hope the plug is pulled quick if it’s needed.

Report Card and Staff Picks 2015: 71-20

Cliff’s Notes…

WBC Heavyweight titlist Deontay Wilder (34-0, 33 KO) lived up to some of the potential he shows with a win over Bermane Stiverne earlier this year. We may see more of that next year in a mandatory with Alexander Povetkin. For now, it’s about getting him national TV exposure (NBC, 8:30 PM EST/5:30 PM PST) and building his ticket selling ability in Alabama. Unless hard-to-call-qualified challenger Johann Duhaupas (32-2, 20 KO) is much better than he looks on film, or Wilder is really more the suspect he appeared against Eric Molina than the still improving pro he was against Stiverne, expect a Wilder win after some rounds are logged…The card of the weekend may be in Japan on Sunday…At 105, the pick if for longtime division stalwart Katsunari Takayama (29-7, 11 KO) to retain over challenger Ryuji Hara (19-1, 11 KO) via decision…At 112, WBA sub-titlist Kazuto Ioka (17-1, 10 KO) has a mandatory rematch with former titlist Juan Carlos Reveco looming. He’ll face another Argentine in Roberto Sosa (26-2-1, 14 KO) to stoke those fire and should retain with a decision victory.

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com