By Cliff Rold
While unsure where the superstition about things happening in threes got started, like most superstitions it leaves an impression in the back of the mind. In the last three weeks, two fights have featured prohibitive underdogs with big names assumed to be on their last legs. In both, rumors of any ring demise were more than exaggerated as both Bernard Hopkins and Vic Darchinyan made mince meat of Kelly Pavlik and Cristian Mijares respectively. Before those fights, Joe Calzaghe (45-0, 32 KO) vs. Roy Jones (52-4, 38 KO) looked like a farewell tour for both with Calzaghe seeking to end undefeated and Jones just seeking an end.
Somehow, the victories of others make Jones’ chances feel suddenly realistic. Do the performances of Hopkins and Darchinyan have any real bearing on Calzaghe-Jones in the ring? Probably not, but sometimes a feeling gets in the air.
Sometimes, the feeling turns out to be gas.
If Calzaghe were facing anyone else but Jones, there wouldn’t be any question. In fact a fighter of Calzaghe’s current status facing someone who hasn’t had a top ten win at Light Heavyweight in years, and who was beaten badly the last three times he tried, would be derided with venom. Superstitions are fun but rational minds realize they are often the object of coincidence.
Hopkins beating Pavlik was surprising, but only because full credit wasn’t doled out for his previous bout with Calzaghe, a fight deserving of viewing in a new light. Darchinyan’s win was downright shocking, but recent strong performances against Z Gorres and Dimitri Kirilov served as a clue many missed. Jones has nothing like that in recent vintage. While he looked solid versus Felix Trinidad in January, does anyone think Tito lasts twelve, hell six, with Jones five years ago?
And yet, still, it’s Jones and once upon a time, even against lesser foes, Jones was so good as to make the idea of some magic this Saturday conceivable. It’s for Ring Magazine’s Light Heavyweight belt, but it’s also the two best Super Middleweights in the history of that division, both in the twilight of their careers. It’s impossible not to look forward to this one even if sometimes it’s easier to picture it as what might have been years ago rather than what it might be now.
Let’s go to the report card.
Speed: Neither Jones nor Calzaghe is in their prime anymore. Recent form suggests Calzaghe is closer to his which will put his performance, more than the one from Jones, under a microscope. In examining the speed factor, it becomes an issue of who has declined more from their peak and that’s Roy. At one time, he may have been the fastest fighter of modern times. Now, he’s just a guy with really good speed; better than most in Boxing. Calzaghe was one of the few in Boxing with anywhere near the speed Roy possesses. No he wasn’t as fast, but who was? To beat Jones then, he would have had to rely on a measure of timing; this bout features a role reversal. Roy has employed his jab more as he’s aged, and will count on it and his standard lead left hooks and rights to halt the momentum Calzaghe will want to build and staying clear of the straight right hand and awkward left hook. He’ll do it from a place of equality and maybe even slight deficit. Calzaghe will be dangerous there. The ‘Calslappy’ reputation can’t be taken literally. Against Jeff Lacy and Mikkel Kessler, Calzaghe landed hurting, short shots inside. He throws in volume, but selectively mixes in the hard stuff when he can. Before myriad hand injuries, the Calzaghe left hook was a legitimate power punch and like Jones’ best stuff, it caught men blind. Jones, stopped brutally by Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson, has a chin which may not be able to afford the test. Pre-Fight Grades: Calzaghe A-; Jones B+
Power: Jones at one time was a lethal puncher. Sure, part of it was reliant on his catching men blind, but lots of speedy guys do that and don’t make eyes go slot machine. Jones could and, given the right opening, still can. Hopkins dropped Calzaghe and stunned him. Jones can do the same and find combinations to make the affects last, especially if he catches him early. As noted, Calzaghe hits plenty hard enough even if he prefers to pile on through pressure rather than loading up for bombs. This isn’t a punchers duel at this point, never really would have been, but the chance for a stoppage is real for both. Jones B+; Calzaghe B
Defense: Calzaghe and Jones are both awkward fighters and partly because of it were and remain difficult to catch clean. On his best day, Jones was all but unhittable so again it’s an issue of decline as much as where he is. As much as has been made of recent losses, Jones defense allowed him to weather a nine-round assault before the end again Johnson and kept him upright in the third fight with Tarver. Both employ subtle head movement and foot movement, and block well with their arms, but neither is a pure fundamentals guy so they also leave openings which play into the speed of both men. Whoever blows through the holes at the right time can win. Timing will be the key to exploiting defensive letdowns. Jones B+; Calzaghe B
Intangibles: Both of these men are easy first ballot Hall of Famers. Jones will remain, forever, in debates about the best who ever lived no matter what side one is on. Calzaghe, due ten years on top, unification, and record title defenses, will be the measuring stick for Super Middleweight as long as the division is around. Put another way, these are two of the best of all time because their legacies will stand the test of it. Boxing followers know the career arcs and tests of each. At this point, Calzaghe must be assumed to have the better chin and it matters. Calzaghe has also shown the ability to adjust, to get off the floor to win, and to think. He is the only fighter, including Jones, to have ever dominated the second half of a fight with Hopkins and he did it tactically. Sure, he’s got tomato cans in his 45 wins; Jones has plenty in his 52. But Calzaghe’s undefeated record through a fifteen year career shows mental toughness and professionalism of a special sort. Jones proved the character beneath his talent, something questioned for years, when he mustered a rally late against Tarver in their first fight to capture victory and when he found another in the eleventh round of their third after being badly hurt only to fight back hard and have Tarver defending. That fight though showed something else; the knockout losses seem to weigh somewhere in Jones’ mind. He showed flashes of brilliance in the mid-rounds against Tarver in their deciding bout but acknowledged afterwards that he didn’t go all out. He cited personal factors but one wonders if the pride of Jones, and his risk-averse instincts, held him back on the trigger. If Calzaghe were to stun him early, could Roy settle into a shell? It’s a slight advantage to Calzaghe that the question is valid. Pre-Fight Grades: Calzaghe A; Jones A-
The Pick: In the late 1990s or early 2000s, Jones and Calzaghe could well have been a classic. Calzaghe is one of the few fighters of Jones’ prime years with enough speed and ring intelligence to have upset Roy’s rhythm and made him truly work for it. It never happened and this weekend we hope for, at best, a good fight. Ironically, it is now Jones whose hopes will rely on upsetting Calzaghe’s rhthym. Hopkins did it in April in the first half of the fight and Jones could walk Calzaghe into traps early in similar fashion. The problem is doing it for twelve rounds and being willing to throw enough to keep Calzaghe at bay. On both counts, it’s a tough assignment. Calzaghe is not Pavlik or Mijares; he’s a decade long proven elite fighter who still has the hunger for universal acclaim, excellent hand speed, and an awkwardness as efficient as Jones’ has been through their careers. Jones has already stated that a loss doesn’t harm his legacy, arguing the pressure is on Calzaghe, but it smacks of a built-in excuse akin to those which followed his non-effort against Tarver in the rubber match. Jones is right of course; a loss won’t hurt his legacy much but a win protects Calzaghe’s and he’ll get it by a unanimous decision where Jones has his moments.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
