By Cliff Rold (photo by Howard Schatz/Showtime)

Arthur Abraham enters this weekend’s opening round of “Super Six” competition as a favorite to win not only the fight at hand but the whole tournament.  Jermain Taylor is seeking to prove he belongs in the tournament at all beyond the value of name branding. 

It wasn’t always this way.

Just shy of four years ago, Jermain Taylor was preparing for a rematch with the great Bernard Hopkins, newly minted as the World Middleweight champion.  Abraham was preparing for fight for an IBF belt Taylor vacated to face Hopkins again right away.  Both men won in December 2005 and held on to their respective titles until Taylor lost his in September 2007.  They never really got close to fighting each other.  The notion was dismissed by Team Taylor during his Middleweight reign, treated as a pointless encounter with a European unknown. 

And now it is Taylor who travels.  Three losses in four fights can do that.  Increased esteem for an Abraham whose knockouts have built a cult following abroad and huge following in Germany can too.

Yet for all his finishing ability, there are some outside Germany who wonder about the names on Abraham’s record.  Taylor has faced the very best.  Abraham has not.  Could belief in Abraham be a case of more hat than cattle by night’s end?     

Let’s go to the report card. 

The Ledgers

Jermain Taylor
Age: 31
Titles: None
Previous Titles: World Middleweight 2005-07, 4 Defenses
Height: 6’1
Weight: 166 ¼ lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 163.25 lbs.
Hails from: Little Rock, Arkansas
Record: 28-3-1, 17 KO
Record in Championship Fights: 4-2-1, 0 KO, 2 KOBY
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated or Drawn: 7 (Raul Marquez, William Joppy, Bernard Hopkins, Winky Wright, Kasim Ouma, Cory Spinks, Jeff Lacy)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 2 (Kelly Pavlik, Carl Froch)

Vs.

Arthur Abraham
Age: 29
Title: None
Previous Titles: IBF Middleweight 2005-09, 10 Defenses
Height: 5’10
Weight: 168 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 160.85 lbs.
Hails from: Yerevan, Armenia
Record: 30-0, 24 KO
Record in Championship Fights: 11-0, 7 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 1 (Raul Marquez)

Pre-Fight Grades
Speed – Taylor B+; Abraham B
Power – Taylor B; Abraham A
Defense – Taylor B-; Abraham B+
Intangibles – Taylor B-; Abraham B+

Taylor showed in his last bout, against Froch, that his speed can be trouble.  When he gets into motion, Taylor’s jab, right hand, and left hook can all get to mark with a surprising suddeness.  The problem can be a in a need to build a head of steam.  Errantly labeled an ‘athletic’ fighter though much of his career because of quick hands, Taylor has been plagued by a robotic approach and less than fluid coordination.  Abraham is probably a tad slower, but he is the better athlete and shows sharper shorter shots coming forward or in counter.  His problem arises in sometimes not throwing enough shots, particularly in recent fights where he appeared almost bored in the ring. 

This fight isn’t attractive because of speed though.  It’s a strong man showdown.  Taylor isn’t revered for being a one-punch knockout artist but there’s no denying he can punch.  He had Kelly Pavlik on the floor before losing the Middleweight crown in September 2007.  He had Froch on the floor for the first time in the Brit’s career before ultimately ending up there himself.  Taylor has struggled for the Cadillac’s or steak knives, struggled to close, but he gets to the precipice.  Abraham’s power is hard to dispute.  When his shots land flush, he can eviscerate foes.  And while stacking names on both Taylor and Abraham’s resume favors Taylor, some of the Abraham victims were solid guys like Khoren Gevor, Edison Miranda, and, at the time, Kingsley Ikeke.

Both men have defensive flaws though the ‘don’t get hit’ to ‘get hit’ ratio favors Abraham.  Taylor is and has been a sucker for right hands and, as a fight progresses and he tires, both hands.  Abraham’s defense can handcuff him.  He goes with a high guard most of the time and can be pushed back.  Taylor’s jab, if he can establish it and keep from getting too close, could force Abraham into constant resets and allow the American a lead through the first half making the second half of the bout a keep away game.  However, it must be noted that Abraham’s appearance of boredom in recent fights was easy to understand.  He’s been ready for years to face bigger names on bigger stages and was struggling to find an opening.  Getting psyched for a Mahir Oral or Lujuan Simon can’t be easy at some point.  In his last real high profile outing, against Edison Miranda, he moved his hands much more and fought with passion.  It would make him more open to do so against Taylor but also provide more scoring opportunities.

As Abraham begins to score, and he will at some point, the mental aspects of the fight come into play.  While he might not have the experience of some of Taylor’s previous foes…well, the foes who beat Taylor didn’t yet either when they beat him.  Kelly Pavlik’s best win was probably Edison Miranda; Froch’s was Jean Pascal.  In both, they outfought Taylor because names on paper mean nothing when the bell rings.  Abraham might hit him less than Pavlik or Froch, but he will also hit him harder.  In front of a pro-Abraham crowd, having been stopped twice in his last four bouts, how does Taylor respond?  Taylor gets points at least for always firing back when damaged.  He has a fighter’s instincts.

In terms of Abraham’s intangibles, he shares the same spot Pavlik and Froch did.  He sees a vulnerable man with a bigger international name in the way of bigger things.  We know already the courage and chin of Abraham; when his jaw was broken in multiple spots during the first Miranda fight in 2006, he finished and found a way to win.  He can’t be asking himself the same questions, can’t be carrying the same doubts, Taylor will on Saturday night.

The Pick

There’s a little tug in the brain which says Taylor is being way too underestimated.  There’s a bigger tug which says there is a reason neither Taylor, nor Pavlik, went out of their way to fit Abraham on the schedule at Middleweight.  Look for Taylor to come out with a strong start and attempt to make a statement which will play into Abraham’s hands.  Abraham will give a few rounds away but when he figures out Taylor’s timing and awkward attack, he’ll start firing through the gaps and score the knockout sometime around the eighth round if not sooner.

Taylor-Abraham will open Showtime’s telecast on a tape delayed basis at 8 PM EST, to be followed live with Carl Froch-Andre Dirrell.

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com