By Charles Jay
Carlos Baldomir has built a pretty good reputation on two fights - of course those were the two biggest of his career. But he took the measure of a rather disengaged Zab Judah and dominated Arturo Gatti, who, when he was in there with a naturally bigger opponent for once, was not able to do any "weight engineering" in order to extract an advantage. The dynamic for Baldomir in this fight is hugely different.
It is not fiction to state that Baldomir is the guy who is the natural welterweight in this matchup, or that he is going to be physically stronger. And that presents a certain puzzle for Mayweather. But Baldomir is slow enough, comparatively speaking, that he will never be able to sustain an offense for very long. Same can be said for his defense.
If Mayweather follows a game plan where he moves about the ring, and gets in and out with combinations, Baldomir is going to be dumbfounded. I don't think this is a fight where anybody's going to get knocked out, and Mayweather is very aware of that. Therefore, he'll be content to score points round after round, or, if he gets off to a slow start, figure his opponent out and find enough clean punches to win the rounds clearly on the judges' scorecards.
As for the heavyweight "title" fight, well, in this day and age, what does being a heavyweight "champion" really mean? In this case, it means Sergei Lyakhovich was able to put together one outstanding ring performance in his career, and it just so happened to be the right place at the right time. And it was against another of a long line of titleholders who could get beaten on any given night if the wind is blowing the wrong way (Lamon Brewster).
Lyakhovich brought a lot of hustle to the table that evening, but there isn't anything I see in his record that indicates he's someone who is going to hold this WBO belt for any length of time. Somebody's going to come along and beat him. So I'm thinking, why not Shannon Briggs? While it is true that Briggs is aging a little (34), that doesn't seem to be too old by heavyweight standards. And he's been places Lyakhovich has never been (namely, in with fighters the caliber of Foreman and Lewis).
Furthermore, he's come back into the picture against a bunch of creampuff opponents, so it's not like he's suffered a lot of wear and tear. And one time a bunch of us went out to dinner and Briggs picked up the check. That's rare enough in boxing that he gets my vote.
I'm engaged in this thing at SuperiorBook.net called the $1 Million Sports Betting Challenge. I started with a million-dollar bankroll and am going to keep playing until I get a million from them or they get it from me (calm down guys, it's a simulation). For Saturday's fight, I'm going to be putting as much as I can on Floyd Mayweather at -550 (laying 11/2) to beat Carlos Baldomir. Mayweather is BY FAR the best fighter in the world and he's not going to be taken down by someone of Baldomir's level. I am also going to make a small play on Briggs as a 2/1 underdog, because like I said, why the hell not?
Check, please!
