By Andreas Hale
Although he is recognized by many as the greatest defensive fighter of all time, Floyd Mayweather has made it a point to tell anybody who is listening that his August 26th showdown with UFC lightweight champion Conor McGregor will not see the final bell.
"One hundred percent, it will not go the distance," Mayweather told ESPN while predicting a knockout. "One hundred percent chance this fight won't go the distance."
Many have scoffed at the idea that Mayweather, who hasn’t scored a knockout since his controversial 4th round KO of Victor Ortiz in 2011, has promised something that he normally doesn’t do. However, this has less to do with Mayweather attempting to sell the fight and more to do with what will likely come to fruition at T-Mobile Arena.
But it will be Conor McGregor, not Floyd Mayweather, who will be responsible for his own demise on August 26th. And if you need a precedent, look no further than Mayweather’s 2007 showdown with then undefeated Ricky Hatton that ended with a 10th round knockout. The similarities between McGregor and Hatton are more than just the accent, the brash demeanor and the countrywide support.
It is almost the step by step blueprint of how McGregor will eventually find himself on the wrong side of a knockout.
Obviously, Hatton was unbeaten at 43-0 when he stepped into the ring with Mayweather at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on December 8th, 2007. The professional experience may be light years apart, but the terms of bravado and belief, the parallels are quite similar.
Hatton knew only one direction heading into the Mayweather fight: forward. His aggression against the likes of Kostya Tszyu and Jose Luis Castillo was a byproduct of his mentality that he couldn’t be beaten. That is unlike other Mayweather opponents who, for the most part, aren’t undefeated when the stepped into the ring with him. Opponents ranging from Shane Mosley and Manny Pacquiao to Andre Berto and Robert Guerrero fought valiantly early but faded as the fight progressed once the realized two very significant aspects of Mayweather’s game.
His punches actually hurt
He’s really, really, difficult to hit
As Mayweather establishes his sharp counterpunching and ability to take away his opponent’s weapons, there is a steep decline in the output as the fight progresses. Whether they want to admit it or not, many of Mayweather’s opponents mentally check out of the fight and prefer to see the final bell.
This is where Hatton was different and a similar trait that McGregor will demonstrate inside of the squared circle.
The Hitman never considered checking out of the fight and continued his advances with the belief that he would eventually catch Mayweather. With an unbeaten record, Hatton didn’t comprehend losing well and was willing to die on his sword if he had to.
And that played right into Mayweather’s wheelhouse.
In the 10th round, Hatton’s aggression finally caught up with him when Mayweather caught him with a check hook that sent Hatton headfirst into the corner. The visual of this exemplified Mayweather’s ability to turn his opponent’s reckless advances into a knockout.
Although McGregor isn’t unbeaten in his mixed martial arts career, he has never been knocked out. And his belief that he will score a knockout against Mayweather is less posturing and more about supreme belief in his ability.
Where this all goes awry is when McGregor finds himself being unable to do what he wants with Mayweather. The 49-0 fighter is a master at taking away his opponent’s best weapon and delivering the straight right hand with pinpoint accuracy. While other opponents have shied away when Mayweather ramps up on the counterpunching, McGregor will have no idea what to do but continue going forward.
Between his lack of boxing experience and questionable conditioning, McGregor will eventually become both desperate and sloppy as Mayweather will begin timing him with the greatest of ease in the middle rounds. Although he’s not a one punch knockout artist, Mayweather will find many opportunities to pounce on his wounded prey. And with a criminally underrated hook to the body, Mayweather will sap the energy from McGregor the deeper the fight goes.
With McGregor not having an off switch, he’ll end up walking himself into a punch that he wasn’t ready for and Mayweather will likely pounce with an assault that will force referee Robert Byrd to rescue the Irishman from further damage in the 8th or 9th round.
This prediction may seem a bit lofty but all of the signs are there. It’s not like McGregor won’t be there to hit. Nate Diaz didn’t have a hard time connecting with McGregor’s chin in both of their encounters. So to think that Floyd Mayweather Jr. won’t do the same is preposterous.
But, again, this is all about how McGregor chooses to approach the fight when things get difficult. Most fighters will decidedly lessen the opportunities for Mayweather to counter and the 40-year-old will gladly watch his opponent give the fight away. But in this situation, McGregor won’t fall back. He’ll recklessly come forward and eventually get caught.
Ricky Hatton found out the hard way what it was like to lose and Conor McGregor will do the same on Saturday night in front of a record breaking crowd. There are few who turn an opponent’s aggression into their own funeral in the squared circle like Mayweather does. Fortunately, all the work will be done by the Irishman and it’s very likely that Mayweather will make good on his promise that this fight will end in a knockout.
