By Ryan Songalia
It is a rare occurrence in the heavyweight division nowadays when a fight materializes that has can't miss written all over it. That's why everyone is closely anticipating the Sept. 2 showdown between top heavyweight contenders James Toney and Samuel Peter. Both men know that a win means a title shot against a champion they would both be favorites to unseat, while a loss would move them to the back of the long line of heavyweight applicants. For two determined fighters, the stakes could scarcely be higher than they are now.
James "Lights Out" Toney, 69-4-3 (43 KO), is aware of the circumstances in front of him right now. Having just turned 38, Toney understands that he can ill afford to suffer a loss at this stage of his career. Unbeaten in nearly ten years, the former middleweight, super middleweight, and cruiserweight champion knows that should he lose to Peter, his dream of winning a heavyweight title will remain nothing more than a fantasy. He had his first opportunity at picking up a belt in 2005, when he squared off with the painfully uninteresting John Ruiz.
After 12 rounds of knocking his man around the ring, it appeared Toney had fulfilled his quest to gain a title belt. However, his post fight trip to the loo revealed a positive reading for a banned anabolic substance, nullifying his unanimous decision victory over Ruiz. After serving a six month suspension, Toney returned with a points victory over Dominick Guinn.
In Toney's most recent effort, he battled to what many considered to be a fortuitous draw against Hasim Rahman. Weighing an unsightly career high of 237 pounds, Toney was sluggish and did not perform up to his lofty standards. During the tale of the tape, Jim Lampley referred to Toney as "a fat tub of goo", which might not be entirely inaccurate. Sporting more spare tires than a junkyard, Toney was still very effective with his counter punching and defensive mastery. But for the first time since his 1994 encounter with Roy Jones Jr., his conditioning betrayed him as he was unable to maintain a consistent pace and was subsequently outworked by the considerably less talented Rahman.
When the judges handed in their decision, a majority draw saved James from what might have been a huge setback.
"What happened with Rahman was a one-time thing", assured Toney at the press conference for this fight. James knows that it would be a suicide mission to get in there with Peter in the shape he entered in his last bout.
The main question surrounding this fight is the weight of Toney. After starting his career at the 160 pound limit, few in the industry would have been able to predict that his career would carry him as high as 237. But it has, and with almost unlikely success. At a relatively diminutive 5'9, it seems almost comical that a serious athlete could carry that weight around. Nevertheless he does, and performs pretty damn well in spite of his indiscreet circumference.
Since entering the heavyweight landscape with his 2003 spanking of Evander Holyfield, his weight has ballooned from 217 in that fight, up 21 pounds in three years. The quandary of it is that it never seemed to affect his ability to out-duel these larger men. That was, until the Rahman fight. Now, with many questioning the wisdom of entering the ring looking like Kool Rock-ski from the Fat Boys, his girth has been the subject of much scrutiny.
Toney remains defensive when confronted with inquiries about his weight, but seems to have been heeding the advice. During his open workout, he appeared to have slimmed down a bit to about 225-230. Not exactly 215, but it's like that sometimes. James Toney concedes that his conditioning is key to winning this fight. "When I am in great shape, I will be knocking somebody out." Well, maybe you'll take a one-sided decision, but a wins a win.
Samuel "The Nigerian Nightmare" Peter, 26-1 (22 KO), may be the hardest puncher in the division. The 2000 Olympian from Nigeria turned pro to little fanfare until his eye catching blowout of Jeremy Williams in 2004. In retrospect, that performance seems insufficient to declare him the heir apparent of the division, but such is the persuasive power of the big punch.
After knocking out a pair of pedestrian catchers, Peter stepped way up in class against the vastly more experienced Wladimir Klitschko. From the opening bell, it was apparent that Peter was versatile enough to handle the technical proficiency of Klitschko. Despite scoring three knockdowns on the fragile Klitschko, he failed to do much else besides that. He lost a decision that night, as well as his undefeated record.
More significantly, he was exposed as being a one dimensional slugger whose only real skill is the ability to knock a guy's head off when given free reign. He did however show a solid chin and remained on his feet the whole night despite being clocked with some very solid shots. He's not the savior of the heavyweight division, but he's pretty fun to watch.
Peter rebounded with a pair of wins over no hopers, helping to restore his confidence if not teaching him head movement. Fights with Calvin Brock and Shannon Briggs fell apart, and now Peter finds himself in there with the slickest cat on the block. This matchup is reminiscent of David Tua and Chris Byrd's encounter in 2002.
Sam Peter is a replica of the Samoan banger, while Toney has the same countering style as Byrd. Consensus opinion was that the heavy hitting Tua would just blow through the smaller Byrd. To the chagrin of the betting man, Byrd took the slower Tua to school and won a lopsided decision. When Toney is in top form, he can be the most frustrating guy in the division to fight. Peter doesn't hit as hard as Tua, but he's no Jimmy Young.
This fight depends on so many uncertainties, it's really hard to pick. This is one of those situations when my mind is saying Toney because of his skill and experience, but that I can't fully dismiss Peter's hunger and wrecking balls disguised as fists. Toney's going to have to keep this fight in the pocket where he can smother Peter. Toney is a master at drawing his man into close quarters where his shorter, faster hands can pick away at a fighter less adept at that kind of combat.
Peter is most devastating when he has space to extend his wide shots. He's not going to be able to land those shots because Toney is elusive at medium range. Peter's game plan will likely be to keep punching and wear down the smaller Toney by banging away to his ribs and arms. He needs to make Toney prove that he's in shape because the benefit of the doubt is no longer with him.
Toney will lure Peter into an infighting situation against the ropes where he can conserve his legs while picking away at his opponent. If Peter can make it a physical encounter, he can outmuscle Toney. Toney must have his balance and legs in good condition so he can discourage Peter's onrushes with steady counterpunching. He cannot afford to let Peter take charge at any time in the fight because Peter can spell victory with a single punch.
Where Toney can separate himself in the scoring is on the outside. He has much quicker hands and feet and has some good pop on his right hand. Toney can nail Peter from the outside before Peter can react, and that's why I think Toney will pull this one out. Speed kills, and knowing how to use it is even deadlier.
"I’ll punish him more than he can ever believe could ever happen to him", exclaimed the Hall of Fame bound Toney. "I’ll beat my respect out of him.” Peter believes he is too big and strong for the outspoken Ann Arbor, MI native. "I will hit him with my best punch, but he will not stand up", promised a confident Peter who predicted a knockout victory in Las Vegas next week.
The winner becomes the mandatory challenger for WBC Heavyweight title claimant Oleg Maskaev, who earned the title by knocking Rahman out in the final round of their rematch in early August. Peter and Toney would both likely defeat Maskaev, so a title shot here is something neither man wants to let slip away. To add to the already grand incentive, there is talks that Maskaev is in the running to face Wladimir Klitschko, and that wouldn't occur with Maskaev carrying a belt. Should the title become vacant, the winner of this fight would likely be awarded the belt. This is in a very real sense a world title bout.
It's youth against experience and skill versus strength with two intriguing boxers in an uninspiring division. More importantly, it's two quality fighters in an important bout that has the makings to be something worth talking about the day after. James Toney assures us "someone is going to get physically damaged." That's all I wanted to hear, James.
Questions? Comments? Mail them to me at mc_rson@yahoo.com
