By David P. Greisman
Jermain Taylor has nothing to lose.
On July 16, the 26-year-old middleweight prospect will step between the ropes at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas to face Bernard Hopkins, the man recognized as the undisputed 160-lb. champion.
The worst possible outcome is that Hopkins will dismantle Taylor like he has all other challengers for the past decade, and that the Little Rock native will surrender his undefeated record (23-0) in a loss to a future Hall of Fame enshrinee.
At best, though, Taylor could pull off a stunning upset, knocking off the 40-year-old Philadelphian and usurping his throne, capping Taylor’s ascent to prominence that began after he won a bronze medal at the 2000 Sydney Olympics.
There is no shame in losing, everything to gain from winning, and a nearly sealed deal that no matter the outcome of Saturday’s match, Taylor will be guaranteed an opportunity to carry Hopkins’s torch once the Executioner retires next January upon his forty-first birthday.
Ironically for Hopkins, despite his middleweight belts, twelve year unbeaten streak and string of twenty consecutive successful title defenses being on the line, he, too, has little to lose.
Hopkins has dominated his peers for an extended period of time, but did not earn true public respect until September 2001, when he knocked out Felix Trinidad after twelve rounds of clinical dissection. As his career dwindles towards its end, Hopkins has chosen to go out on a high note, against opposition that brings a challenge to the ring and cash into the coffers.
Jermain Taylor fits both criteria, and with youth triumphing over experience this June when Ricky Hatton ended Kostya Tszyu’s junior welterweight reign, some believe he has a legitimate chance at victory. And people will pay to watch, especially with Taylor being the best foe for Hopkins besides fellow Trinidad-conqueror Winky Wright
In this week’s edition of Fighting Words, which had a lengthier introduction than usual, I will break down the possibilities and probabilities of what will occur inside the ring for Hopkins/Taylor, using analysis gleaned from their past few fights. Within The 10 Count, attention will be given to the matches on the pay-per-view undercard, as well as important recent news, including comments concerning Vernon Forrest, Ray Oliveira and the tragic deaths of three boxers.
Size Matters
During Jermain Taylor’s short time in the limelight, which truly began last year as HBO placed him on three cards in preparation for the hopeful showdown with Bernard Hopkins, Taylor has feasted on smaller opponents, blown up junior middleweights that gave away advantages in both height and size. By the time last December that Taylor met William Joppy, who, although four inches shorter, had been competing at middleweight his whole career, Joppy was a shell of his old championship form, battered and broken by terrible losses to Hopkins and Felix Trinidad.
Hopkins will be the first true middleweight that Taylor will face that is the same height, nixing his ability to physically impose his size advantage. Still, Hopkins is lean, in remarkable shape with a twenty-eight inch waistline, and if Taylor balloons in poundage after the weigh-in he may be able to push Hopkins around the ring (a decision that would play right into Hopkins’s hands).
Style Points
In his two fights in 2004 against veteran foes Joppy and Raul Marquez, Jermain Taylor looked most comfortable letting his opponents play the role of aggressor, backing up, circling, and then coming forward with jabs and combinations. He appeared to have no inside game, letting Joppy and Marquez throw nearly all the offense during clinches.
Against Hopkins, nearly everything will need to change, especially if the Executioner decides to box economically from a distance like he did in February against Howard Eastman. If Taylor decides that he wants to sit back and counter, then Hopkins’s superior footwork and ring smarts will let him get off first and then get out, breaking down the Olympian and building a lead on the scorecards. But if Taylor chooses to come forward, then he is leaving himself vulnerable to an expert counter-puncher in Hopkins.
And when the fighters get closer together, Taylor cannot let Hopkins get away with his usual assortment of rabbit punches, shoulders and low blows. A wily veteran, Hopkins pushes referees to their limits, fouling away from suspecting eyes and making the third man in the ring do his job.
It is essential that Taylor stays active and not become bogged down into fighting at Hopkins’s pace. In the first round of Hopkins/Eastman, the Philadelphian was able to get away with a dreary first round that saw only six punches landed between the two pugilists.
So, with all that taken into consideration, what should be each man’s
Strategies
Some have said that Jermain Taylor should smother Bernard Hopkins like Ricky Hatton did to Kostya Tszyu, but that is not Taylor’s style, nor would he be as effective on the inside as Hopkins.
For Taylor to win he and his team are going to need to follow their game plan and stay as focused against Hopkins as Winky Wright was against Felix Trinidad. Taylor has already admitted to being taken off of his plan by Raul Marquez and William Joppy, so what consequences will the wily veteran Hopkins cause?
Taylor must work behind his jab, but he must fix his bad habit of pulling his right hand back while jabbing, which would leave Taylor open to a counter left hook. Against Eastman, Hopkins circled away from the left jab and then used lead left hooks to earn respect.
Besides jabbing, Taylor needs to make Hopkins work every minute of every round, beyond the Executioner’s comfort level. This is the only way to attempt to make the old man grow old, and will require cutting off the ring, as opposed to just following, and throwing combinations in bunches.
It is a daunting task, especially risky considering that all of this will leave Taylor open to punishment, but this is the time to earn his stripes. Sure, more work would’ve been nice to get Taylor ready, but the days were running out for Taylor to directly usurp Hopkins’s kingdom.
As for Hopkins, he will need to circle away from Taylor’s jab, first and foremost, and should do everything he can to make the kid think and forget his plan of attack. Part of Hopkins’s brilliance is that he so completely puzzles his foes that they force themselves into impotence while he picks them apart, piece-by-piece.
Hopkins should get inside as early as possible, clinching and fouling (hey, it’s only illegal if you get caught) and throwing shots to the body and below so as to take away Taylor’s steam. The kid has only fought past the seventh round five times, and only gone twelve rounds twice. Once Taylor’s endurance and stamina are lowered, his combination punching becomes much less dangerous, and the battle of attrition can begin. Taylor will feel stymied and absolutely clueless, and no matter what solutions his corner can come up with, Hopkins can use his experience to observe, adjust, and execute.
Taylor has shown that he can adjust, too, but he may well have bitten off more than he can chew in facing Hopkins.
But then again, Jermain Taylor has nothing to lose.
The 10 Count
1. With Eric Morel out as challenger to Fernando Montiel’s 115-lb. title due to legal problems, Montiel’s new opponent on the pay-per-view undercard of Hopkins/Taylor will be Evert Briceno. Briceno is coming up in one division from flyweight, but should not bring much to the table except what is now a “work” fight for Montiel.
2. A better promise of fireworks exists in the rematch between Oscar Larios, the WBC junior featherweight champion, and Wayne McCullough. Larios and McCullough fought twelve entertaining rounds in February, a match in which Larios retained via unanimous decision. McCullough is nearing the end of a long career that has seen victories over Johnny Bredahl and losses to Daniel Zaragoza, Naseem Hamed, Erik Morales and Scott Harrison. With his second shot at Larios, McCullough has a chance to go out firing on a grand stage in thrilling fashion.
3. Coming back from two years of recuperating from injuries is Vernon Forrest, the former welterweight champion who beat Shane Mosley twice before dropping two in a row to Ricardo Mayorga. This will be Forrest’s first time in the ring since July 2003, and his entry into the junior middleweight division, and although his opponent is the completely inexperienced (6-1) Sergio Rios, Forrest will still need to shake off his ring rust in a manner that is more Felix Trinidad (against Ricardo Mayorga) than Fernando Vargas (versus Raymond Joval).
4. A frightening sight last week on ESPN’s Friday Night Fights, as Ray Oliveira began to paw at the back of his neck in the eighth round of his bout with Emanuel Augustus. Referee Steve Smoger showed immediate concern, and he took Oliveira to the ringside physician in the corner. Smoger rightly pressured the doctor to stop the fight, but the health professional completely missed the boat in not noticing the tremendous delay it took for Oliveira to answer questions about what day it was and how many fingers were being held up. Oliveira was in obvious pain and distress, and in the remainder of the round, Augustus did little offensively, jabbing to the body but never going upstairs, letting the time tick off until Smoger did the right thing in halting the match himself once the bell rang. Massive respect goes to both Smoger and Augustus, and here’s hoping that Oliveira retires and continues to recover.
5. The sight of Oliveira was especially troubling considering the recent death of 140-pounder Martin Sanchez after his super lightweight bout with Rustam Nugaev. Add on the out-of-the-ring loss of light heavyweight Julian Letterlough (shot and killed Friday morning in Reading, Pa.), and it’s been a rough period for a dangerous sport that often serves to save lives (like it had with ex-con Letterlough), not take them.
6. I’m quite excited about seeing junior middleweight titlist Kassim Ouma this Thursday on HBO Latino, as he faces Roman Karmazin. The speed and skill that Ouma showed in January in dispatching Kofi Jantuah were impressive, but in a division controlled by Don King (Ouma is part of the Golden Boy Promotions stable), he will need to stay active and victorious to earn paydays in front of larger audiences.
7. Zab Judah has founded his next opponent, and it will be Sharmba Mitchell, who he will face in defense of his three welterweight titles on September 3. Judah and Mitchell share knockout losses to Kostya Tszyu, but Judah has been rebuilding his career and gaining maturity, growth that culminated in his kayo of Cory Spinks in February. Mitchell is new to 147, his only fight to date being a five round technical decision in June over Chris Smith, but this is the best match-up that can be made until Judah (should he be victorious) faces Antonio Margarito (the other beltholder in the division), Shane Mosley, Oscar De La Hoya or Floyd Mayweather Jr.
8. Both Manny Pacquiao and Erik Morales may fight next (but not against each other) on September 10, in anticipation of a rematch that could take place either in December or early next year. Should Marco Antonio Barrera get by Robbie Peden on September 17 and unify the WBC and IBF belts, the Babyfaced Assassin should take on WBC number one contender Jesus Chavez next, and then either attempt to avenge his drubbing to Pacquiao or meet Morales for the fourth time.
9. Speaking of Jesus Chavez, he has recently become a promotional free agent, and may be out of his rematch with Carlos Hernandez on the undercard of October’s Corrales/Castillo II pay-per-view. Chavez was understandably upset that his title eliminator win over Hernandez in late May was not rewarded with a megafight with a Morales, Pacquiao or Barrera, but he may have shot himself in the foot unless he can sign with Golden Boy Promotions, the company that along with Chavez’s former employer Top Rank seems to have the most pull in the super featherweight division.
10. Since those involved with the heavyweights can’t seem to make up their minds and move boxing’s supposed marquee division forward, I’m going to put the gavel down and mandate the four championship fights that should occur within the next six months: Vitali Klitschko needs to be a man of his word and face the winner of Hasim Rahman/Monte Barrett; Chris Byrd should face Wladimir Klitschko, the (I can’t believe I’m typing this) rightful number one contender, although on American soil this time; John Ruiz should defend against Samuel Peter, even if the Nigerian Nightmare has yet to defeat anyone of consequence; and Lamon Brewster, should he defeat Luan Krasniqi, could face Calvin Brock, who has progressed further than Peter (I just want Big Sam to knock Ruiz out, for good this time).
Next Week’s Fighting Words – Hopkins/Taylor Post-Fight Analysis
In next week’s edition of Fighting Words, I will break down the results of Bernard Hopkins’s match with Jermain Taylor, triumphantly raising my arms if my analysis proves to be correct, eating crow if it doesn’t. As usual, look for further commentary on the undercard results, as well as other happenings within the sweet science.