by Cliff Rold
Both can be considered among the ten best fighters, of any size, in the world. They are arguably the two most talented fighters in what is, in this moment, the best division in boxing.
And both still have a ton to prove.
For all his accomplishment, Bantamweight titlist Fernando Montiel has struggled for recognition. Mexico is a glut of fistic talent and thrills. Montiel has always had the former, reflected in title reigns in now three weight classes.
It’s been up and down for the latter.
His best wins seen in the States (which don’t include the best win of his career generally) have come on pay-per-view undercards or obscure basic cable shows. His two defeats, and two worst performances, were HBO Boxing After Dark spotlights against Mark Johnson and Jhonny Gonzalez. Donaire could be his last, best chance to go emerge from the microscope with the sort of win the whole world can point to as validation for what otherwise looks like a Hall of Fame resume.
The Filipino-born Donaire isn’t without the burden of proof either. He displays eye-popping speed, punch variety, and power. He has a couple of wins that left fans with their jaws on the floor…which is where the problem lies. Beyond those couple (Vic Darchinyan and Wlad Sidorenko to be specific), the pickings are a little slim. He’s never had the sort of bad night Montiel had with Johnson, Gonzalez, or even Alejandro Valdez. He also hasn’t seen anything near the range of opposition Montiel has. It’s why Donaire can be seen by some as a top five pound-for-pound player while not meriting rating at all in other corners.
Defeat Montiel and Donaire cements the accolades.
Sounds like fun.
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Fernando Montiel
Age: 31
Titles: WBO Bantamweight/118 lbs. (2009-Present, 2 Defenses); WBC Bantamweight (2010-Present, 1 Defense)
Previous Titles: WBO Flyweight (2000-02, 3 Defenses); WBO Jr. Bantamweight/115 lbs. (2002-03, 1 Defense; 05-09, 7 Defenses)
Height: 5’4
Weight: 118 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 118.4 lbs.
Hails from: Los Mochis, Sinaloa, Mexico
Record: 44-2-2, 34 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 17-2, 13 KO (18-2, 14 KO including interim title fights)
BoxingScene Rank: #1 at Bantamweight
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 10 (Cruz Carbajal, Isidro Garcia, Juan Domingo Cordoba, Jose Lopez, Pedro Alcazar, Ruben Sanchez Leon, Ivan Hernandez, Martin Castillo, Juan Alberto Rosas, Hozumi Hasegawa)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 2 (Mark Johnson, Jhonny Gonzalez)
Vs.
Nonito Donaire
Age: 28
Title: None
Previous Titles: IBF Flyweight (2007-09, 3 Defenses)
Height: 5’6
Weight: 118 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 114.8 lbs.
Hails from: San Leandro, California (Born in the Philippines)
Record: 25-1, 17 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #4 at Bantamweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 4-0, 4 KO (6-0, 5 KO including interim title fights)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 3 (Vic Darchinyan, Moruti Mthalane, Wladimir Sidorenko)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Montiel B+; Donaire A
Pre-Fight: Power – Montiel A; Donaire A
Pre-Fight: Defense – Montiel B; Donaire B+
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Montiel A; Donaire A
Those most impressed with Donaire watch his thrashing knockouts of Darchinyan and Sidorenko and see the elements that allow him to hop over more accomplished battlers in the esteem granted with the mind’s eye. Speed, when complimented with obvious skill and refinement, really does kill.
And Donaire is ridiculously fast.
He can snap the jab, fire the right, and look like he’s jabbing again only to turn the left into a whipping uppercut. Opponent’s faces become a mask of bewilderment when he is on. The speed lends an element of surprise that make evident power even more devastating. What Donaire has not seen to date is a fighter who can counter with the same element of surprise.
Sidorenko is a quality boxer, and landed pretty well even while getting slaughtered, but that might have had something to do with Donaire knowing his foe couldn’t punch through paper. Darchinyan can blast, but Donaire was a solid two steps ahead for most of their five rounds.
He might be a solid step ahead of Montiel all night as well but Montiel brings an outstanding fundamental base, short punching, and proven thunder in his gloves.
Montiel’s problems will come from how he deals with the jab of Donaire. His jab isn’t good enough to offset, but well-timed range finders can set up the hard charging left hooks Montiel is known for. Donaire has shown a good beard to date so hoping for the sort of night changer Montiel landed on the jaw of Hasegawa might be a reach. Landing a short counter left to the liver, or ribs, is not.
Montiel is the better body puncher of the two and his left hook to the body can explode out of nowhere. He might not be the faster man overall, but that might be the weapon in the fight most likely to get to mark first. Montiel can also point to being more battle tested. Will that mean greater mental toughness?
It could.
Montiel was being soundly outboxed, on foreign turf, through three rounds with Hasegawa only to find a way to turn it around and win the first Bantamweight unification fight in almost forty years. He came off the floor to stop Luis Melendez in a lost 2007 classic.
It also could not. The evidence suggests Donaire is a gamer of the highest order. Against his two most accomplished foes, he looked like an absolute beast. Donaire fights like he knows when the world is watching. Montiel has come off bottled up on some big stages only to come completely uncorked in others (his devastating walk through Martin Castillo in 2008 comes to mind). Montiel seems to be best when expectations of him are tempered...
…and considering most seem to favor Donaire to win this weekend, that might be just the recipe Montiel is looking for this weekend.
The Pick
Most of the ‘experts’ and the oddsmakers are leaning towards Donaire and it’s a fair take. Donaire is a little younger, has less miles on him, and hasn’t disappointed on a big stage yet. He also should be the bigger man in the ring Saturday. Don’t let where each man has been on the scale detract from how massive Donaire looked against career Bantamweight Sidorenko. He’ll be taller and wider than Montiel this weekend.
However, let’s also not forget that Montiel has only (and only slightly) disappointed because he once carried the sort of expectations Donaire has been riding since stopping Darchinyan in 2007. Montiel has picked up a reputation for being somewhat inconsistent but two losses in almost fifty fights hardly fits the description. We know Montiel is human and that might equate to underrating him. The jury is out on the talented Donaire and so could he be getting slightly overrated.
In that respect, the nature of this fight (if not, in any way, the styles) can be compared to the 2001 Jr. Welterweight unification battle between Kostya Tszyu and Zab Judah.
Everyone tuning in was psyched, but there was a feeling built into the event that the night was designed as a coronation for a star of the next order. Tszyu was there to play the part of ‘validating veteran win.’
Tszyu didn’t play according to script.
Then again, Donaire doesn’t display the lapses in concentration Judah had even before Tszyu. Donaire has the talent to turn this into a rout but it feels unlikely. Montiel is going to touch Donaire hard, and earlier than most expect, and force the younger man to dig deep. A knockdown caused by a body shot in the first six rounds is not out of the question. The question from there becomes what Donaire has beneath the talent, what emerges in a grind.
Donaire should have more than enough to make it nasty over the second half but the lean here is a razor thin Montiel decision win in a mild upset.
Report Card Picks 2011: 1-0
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
