If you’ve gotten to this point and aren’t happy, it’s your own fault.
You should have seen it coming last year.
In keeping with tradition in this Tuesday morning space, we proactively greet the New Year with a preview of stories other boxing scribes will be reacting to about 12 months from now.
Of course, if you recall from last week’s piece, 2019 was a forecasting year to ignore… if not forget.
But hope springs eternal, so – in the recurring quest to match the glory of our spot-on advance pick of a then-unheralded Andre Ward as the fighter of the year in 2011 – we’re giving it another go for 2020.
Unlike football, baseball or their collective ilk, there are no master schedules from which to pluck events to predict. And even if I was prescient enough to know now which fights would be made between which guys, say, next October, there's always a chance that three people sitting on the ring's perimeter would pound my forecasting into dust with their definition of what constitutes a “boxing lesson.”
But those are excuses and gripes for another day.
Today is a day of forward thinking, and with that, here’s an advance look at what everyone else will be looking back on next Christmas.
And hey, if even some of this stuff really does happen… it’s going to be a good year for all of us.
COMEBACK OF THE YEAR: Danny Garcia
OK, it’s not as if Danny Garcia had really gone anywhere.
He was active in 2019 – defeating respected divisional gatekeeper Adrian Granados by seventh-round TKO – and was consistently on the lips of significant welterweights discussing their next fights.
But considering where he’d been just a few years earlier, having entered 2017 as an undefeated champ with wins in seven title fights across two weight classes, it might as well have been a lifetime ago. That all changed in 2020, though, as “Swift” emerged in January with a defeat of rugged southpaw Ivan Redkach – a win impressive enough to get the attention of WBA kingpin Manny Pacquiao.
Their bout was signed for the late spring, and Garcia made the most of the enormous pay-per-view opportunity by stopping the Filipino legend in Round 7 of what turned out to be not only one of the year’s best fights, but among its biggest surprises.
UPSET OF THE YEAR: Jermall Charlo UD 12 Gennady Golovkin
OK, when you really look at it, maybe it’s not so big a surprise.
Gennady Golovkin turned 37 in early 2019, hadn’t clearly won a fight against a top middleweight since dusting David Lemieux in 2015 and was in against a fighter in Jermall Charlo who arrived with edges in height (by 1 1/2 inches), reach (by three inches) and age (by eight years).
Still, when the official scorecards were read and Charlo’s hand was raised, it was a shock to the system.
Charlo maximized his physical advantages in the early going by throwing combinations and never giving Golovkin a stationary target, and he brought it home down the stretch by standing and firing to fight off a determined rally from a by-then-desperate Kazakh.
Your move, Canelo.
KNOCKOUT OF THE YEAR: Deontay Wilder KO 6 Tyson Fury
Let’s face it, Deontay Wilder is no stranger to highlight-reel stoppages.
But until his February rematch with Tyson Fury, he’d not combined that power with prestige.
The chatty Alabama native and his outspoken British counterpart followed a familiar script through the early going of their second in-ring get-together, with Fury evading real danger while winning rounds with accurate jabs and frenetic footwork.
Still, Wilder seemed more confident in his ability to reach his man, and the self-assuredness paid off midway through the fifth, when a left-right combination drove Fury to the ropes and seemed to rob whatever bounce his legs had arrived with.
The WBC champ remained patient and controlled to begin the sixth and got the result he’d been seeking when a jab to the body was followed by a straight right that landed directly on Fury’s chin. The former conqueror of Wlad Klitschko was out before he hit the ground and laid motionless for several seconds before eventually coming around and wobbling back to his stool – where he announced his retirement.
FIGHT OF THE YEAR: Vasily Lomachenko KO 8 Teofimo Lopez
It’s a fight Teofimo Lopez had been angling toward for years… with his mouth.
And once he finally reached the championship level – thanks to a late-2019 thrashing of IBF lightweight incumbent Richard Commey – it was finally one that he’d earned with his fists.
In the aftermath, nearly everyone is hoping it happens at least once or twice more.
The brash Brooklynite long claimed he’d be capable of bullying the uber-talented Ukrainian, and he was able to back up the claims early on – even dropping Lomachenko with a combination in the third round. Problem was, it triggered a ferocity the three-weight champ had rarely been forced to tap in to.
Loma responded with a knockdown of his own in the following round and gradually began taking over exchanges with sharper shots. Lopez was bloodied and reeling by the end of the seventh, then found himself rescued by his own corner team at 2:07 of Round 8.
FIGHTER OF THE YEAR: Danny Garcia
It’s never an easy pick. Incumbent champions defend and unify titles. Heavily-hyped prospects fulfill championship-level promise. And legit superstars maintain their status atop the sport.
But when a guy begins a year in one place and finishes it in another, he separates from the pack.
Such is the 2020 case, again… for Danny Garcia.
As mentioned earlier, the Philadelphia veteran fell from his elite perch after losses to Keith Thurman and Shawn Porter in 2017 and 2018 but maintained enough name recognition to stay in the Pacquiao sweepstakes – a position he solidified with the one-sided defeat of Redkach to start the new year.
And once he dispensed with the Filipino legend and regained fringe status on pound-for-pound lists, the front-runner status in the Fighter of the Year race became a slam dunk proposition.
* * * * * * * * * *
This week’s title-fight schedule:
WBO flyweight title – Tokyo, Japan
Kosei Tanaka (champion/No. 1 IWBR) vs. Wulan Tuolehazi (No. 10 WBO/No. 15 IWBR)
Tanaka (14-0, 8 KO): Third title defense; Five KO/TKO wins in nine scheduled 12-round bouts
Tuolehazi (13-3-1, 6 KO): First title fight; Unbeaten in four scheduled 12-round bouts (4-0, 1 KO)
Fitzbitz says: The combination of a streaking champion and a contender – albeit a respectable one – who’s never faced anything close to the high level, is an easy one to figure. #AndStill Tanaka in 8 (99/1)
WBO junior bantamweight title – Tokyo, Japan
Kazuto Ioka (champion/No. 5 IWBR) vs. Jeyvier Cintron (No. 1 WBO/No. 20 IWBR)
Ioka (24-2, 14 KO): First title defense; Held titles at 105, 108 and 112 pounds (2011-14, 2015-17)
Cintron (11-0, 5 KO): First title fight; First scheduled 12-round bout (two of 11 fights past eight rounds)
Fitzbitz says: Ioka walks into the ring with a vast resume of championship-level success, but little of it has come at 115 pounds. He’s home, though, and that’s the tiebreaker. Ioka by decision (55/45)
Last week's picks: 1-0 (WIN: Goulamirian)
2019 picks record: 103-22 (82.4 percent)
Overall picks record: 1,114-365 (75.3 percent)
NOTE: Fights previewed are only those involving a sanctioning body's full-fledged title-holder – no interim, diamond, silver, etc. Fights for WBA "world championships" are only included if no "super champion" exists in the weight class.
Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. He is a full voting member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Reach him at fitzbitz@msn.com or follow him on Twitter – @fitzbitz.